Former U.S. President Donald Trump has often made narcissistic and controversial statements regarding his capabilities to effect change, whether domestically by making America first or internationally, portraying himself as the savior of the world from wars and conflicts stemming from the administration of his predecessor, Joe Biden. Trump has harshly criticized Biden’s policies, particularly regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war and the Israeli war on Gaza, making many promises during his election campaign aimed at achieving political miracles. His first promise was to stop the war in Gaza, and his second was to end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours of assuming power in the White House. Trump’s insistence on halting the Russian-Ukrainian war, which concerns Europe, revolves around the fear of Russia emerging victorious from this conflict. He fulfilled his first promise regarding the war in Gaza, but he failed with the second promise to stop the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours of taking office, despite successfully enacting several executive decisions relating to domestic issues in the United States.
Complications of the Russian-Ukrainian War
Ukraine holds strategic importance from both the Russian and American perspectives; geostrategically, it serves as a vital region for Russian security. Moreover, Eastern Ukraine is ethnically populated by a Russian majority, comprising about 17% of Ukraine’s population, and there are intertwined cultural and historical factors between the two countries. From the American viewpoint, Ukraine acts as a bulwark between NATO countries and Russia, and a strong Ukraine is fundamental to European national security, as well as to NATO states, and has geopolitical importance in containing Russia. Economically, Ukrainian ports provide a route for Europeans into the Black Sea.
The Russian-Ukrainian war differs from other conflicts worldwide due to the complexities of the situation and the repercussions arising from it on the entire international system. It is not merely a conventional war between two countries but a struggle between two camps: the dominant international order represented by the U.S. and Western Europe, and Russia, which seeks to establish a multipolar international system. Ukraine is the battleground for this conflict, which is intertwined with international, regional, local, geographical, historical, religious, cultural, and linguistic factors, as Russia aims to restore its global and international power.
Russia’s determination to achieve military and political gains from this war complicates the prospects for an agreement to end it easily. The Russian position remains steadfast regarding its pre-war demands, and its territorial control on the ground increases its power to resist or concede on these demands, such as Ukraine’s neutrality and preventing its accession to the EU or NATO, while Ukraine continues to insist on reverting to the state of affairs before the war and intensifies its efforts to join the EU and NATO.
Paths of the Russian-Ukrainian War
The Russian-Ukrainian war is one of the most dangerous international crises since the end of the Cold War, threatening a military confrontation between Russia and Europe, undermining the international order established since World War II, and potentially paving the way for the emergence of a multipolar international system. Additionally, this war has rekindled discussions about the concept of European security, which contributes to the difficulty in reaching a solution and a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine; multifaceted security extends beyond military might to include economic, social, and cultural strengths amidst intertwined national interests. This war is characterized by the use of large military forces and various types of weaponry, alongside numerous factors—geographical, historical, cultural, and identity-driven—which makes it one of the most complex and intractable conflicts.
Despite Trump’s controversial statements regarding the Russian-Ukrainian war, an end to the conflict seems unlikely, with no clear indicators pointing toward a resolution. This is evidenced by the parties’ positions on military escalation, reflecting their proclaimed strategic goals. Russia’s insistence on protecting its national security faces Ukraine’s determination to restore the pre-February 24, 2022 situation, making it seem almost impossible given the Russian military’s successes since the war began.
Trump’s Failure to End the Russian-Ukrainian War as Promised
Trump has failed to halt the Russian-Ukrainian war within 24 hours of taking office, as he promised during his campaign, and this can be attributed to several factors. Primarily, Russia is a pivotal country worldwide, representing a strategic international pole in military and political strength with its own independent decision-making. Trump cannot impose conditions on Russia to stop the war; Russia’s decision to halt military operations stems from its national interests. This war is a necessity for countering Western aggression aimed at weakening Russia, thereby directly threatening its national security through Ukraine. This scenario reflects the West’s rejection of a multipolar international system. There is now a new reality in the world that the West must acknowledge clearly, ceasing to impose its will following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
Consequently, Russia will not yield to any pressure from President Trump, whatever its nature, without considering its national security interests and the threat posed by Ukraine. As a strong international pole with independence and sovereignty and possessing influential military and economic power, Russia will not allow Trump to impose pressure or conditions as he did with Israel to stop the war in Gaza. A significant U.S. failure in this issue appears inevitable, extending possibly for months or even years if Russian demands are not taken into account in any ceasefire proposals between the two countries.
Warnings to Russia and Suspension of Aid to Ukraine
President Trump issued a series of warnings regarding the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war, threatening to impose further economic sanctions on Russia if it refused to end hostilities in Ukraine. This includes increasing tariffs on Russian goods and other undisclosed sanctions, claiming that this pressure would provide substantial services to Russia in resolving the crisis. Russia has ignored these statements, while President Vladimir Putin has consistently supported negotiations but stipulates that the Ukrainian government must recognize the achievements Russia has made on the ground, particularly regarding Russian sovereignty over the regions that have declared joining Russia, which account for about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, along with Ukraine’s permanent neutrality and its non-joining NATO.
Conversely, Trump criticized the financial and military support that President Biden’s administration has provided to Ukraine, stating, “No more billions for Ukraine.” He emphasized that casualty figures from this war have not been reported accurately by either side, estimating Russia’s losses at around 800,000 soldiers and Ukraine’s at about 700,000 killed.
Anticipated Meeting Between Putin and Trump with Many Issues Awaiting Resolution
Trump made intriguing statements at the Davos Economic Forum, expressing his desire to meet with President Putin as soon as possible to end the war that is causing innocent lives to be lost in Ukraine. He remarked that President Zelensky of Ukraine is also willing to negotiate, in addition to other pressing issues, notably the reduction of nuclear arms worldwide, expressing optimism that Putin supports this direction.
Proposed Plan
There have been leaks regarding Trump’s vision to end the Russian-Ukrainian war within 100 days, which centers on preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, declaring it a neutral state, recognizing Russian sovereignty over the territories controlled by Russian forces in Eastern Ukraine, lifting sanctions on Russia within three years based on compliance with the agreement, and removing restrictions on Russian energy sources, with the possibility of imposing some tariffs on them from the EU. In exchange, there would be an agreement on Ukraine’s accession to the EU by 2030 and reconstruction efforts for Ukraine through an international conference organized for this purpose, along with the continuation of U.S. military support.
Conclusion
President Trump’s vision for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war primarily stems from U.S. strategic interests, but aspirations and implementation are two different matters. Russia is a pivotal country seeking to restore its imperial and Soviet glories by establishing a multipolar international system, possessing military, economic, and historical capabilities to play an influential role internationally, challenging U.S. hegemony. Russian victory in this war is a first step toward altering international and regional equations. Trump’s approach to ending the war will only succeed by ensuring Russian interests are protected and maintaining the achievements of the Russian military since the war began. Trump’s team is preparing a plan for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, which will be presented during a future meeting between Trump and Putin. If these leaks regarding the proposed plan prove true and take Russian demands into account, significant success may be achievable. Trump’s strategy for handling international crises seems to rely on negotiations, sanctions, and deals, with U.S. interests in halting the war reflecting positively on the American economy. However, if Trump aims to consider European and Ukrainian interests in his vision for ending the war, he is likely to face severe failure, as Russia will not accept a partial victory but seeks a complete triumph on the international stage as an influential player in the world, enforcing a new multipolar global order.
