At the end of the twentieth century, indicators emerged foretelling deep transformations related to new international formations and global power balances, contributing to shaping the strategic map of global actors. In this context, the book “Towards a New World Order,” published in French, explores these themes.
The late twentieth century witnessed several signs of profound shifts taking shape in international relations and global power dynamics, which, in turn, influenced the strategic map of the world’s controllers.
Numerous writings have described these transformations, tracing the threads of new alliances and the form that the twenty-first century would take in international politics. Most discussions focused on the position of the United States as a superpower in this map and its conduct concerning what it believed to be “its century,” particularly after it declared—during George H.W. Bush’s presidency—the end of bipolarity in international politics and the dominance of the U.S. on the world stage. Some American scholars and intellectuals even posited that this dominance signified the “end of history.”
Among the most significant books that captured the indicators of these profound changes in the new world order, which sparked widespread debate globally, is the work of Singaporean diplomat and strategic analyst Kishore Mahbubani: “The New Asian Hemisphere,” which distinctly outlines the reasons for the waning of Western—specifically American—dominance over the world (without implying the end of Western civilization, as he puts it) and the return of the “Asian giant” to a position of control in the international relations arena.
Foresight and the Science of Substantial Events
In this context of transformations, a new book has recently been published in French titled “Towards a New World Order” by Gérard Chaliand, a specialist in international relations, global crises, and armed conflicts. He has numerous works in geopolitical and foresight studies, in collaboration with Michel Jan, an expert on Chinese affairs.
Chaliand, a Frenchman of Armenian descent, is valued as one of the specialists in political and strategic issues related to the “third world” who has developed his knowledge and experience in the field rather than in closed salons and theoretical discussions. He has spent over a quarter-century “venturing” through 75 countries inAfrica, Asia, and America. He has worked on liberation movements (like those in Algeria, North Vietnam, Guinea-Bissau, Colombia, Peru, Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Palestine, Iraq, etc.), meeting with revolutionaries to understand their ideas, struggles, and aspirations from the inside, producing numerous analyses, books, and important reports that significantly impacted the objective and rational understanding of what is occurring in many areas of the “marginalized” and “oppressed” world. He contributed to the establishment of research institutions in some regions he visited, such as the Center for Strategic Studies in Kabul in 2006, and has published no less than 40 books, the most famous of which include “Wars and Civilizations,” “The Global Anthology of Strategy,” “A 40-Year Journey of Guerrilla Warfare,” “The Afghan Predicament,” and “Atlas of the New World Order.” In addition to his specialization in international relations and geopolitical studies, he is a historian, poet, and translator.
His latest book, published by Seuil in Paris, is 320 pages long, divided into an introduction, 15 chapters, and a conclusion, along with a reference list and some maps and tables.
The book addresses the rise and decline of Western control over the world—a dominance that, according to the author, lasted just over two centuries—and outlines a new international system forming before our eyes, in which emerging powers from Asia, particularly China, gradually dominate the global scene.
The book revolves around exploring the mechanisms, impacts, and ramifications of the “announcement of the beginning of the end of absolute dominance exercised by the West for nearly three centuries,” indicating that this geopolitical transformation manifested in the financial and economic crisis experienced by the world in 2007-2008, in demographic declines in Europe and America, and in the emergence of China as a superpower, now ranked second globally, as well as the rise of other emerging powers like India and Brazil.
A World Being Reformed
This provides the mental and psychological backdrop from which the author begins his analysis to understand the state of the world system a quarter-century from now. Consequently, in the first chapter, he maps the civilizations that dominated the world, extending their influence over lands and minds, leading to the birth of Western civilization from the womb of the “Enlightenment,” and its spiritual, material, and political control over the world following the French and American revolutions. While he acknowledges the universality of the values propagated by Western civilization and its desire to impose them globally, he strongly criticizes its handling of these values and the extent of its commitment to them. He considers the mismanagement of the moral foundation of these values as a major reason for their decline and for losing their leading position in the world today. Chaliand is certainly not the first to discuss the end of the era of Western dominance; research teams have been formed, scientific conferences convened, and individual and collective books published detailing the diminishing American hegemony over the world, east and west, since the 1980s. Indeed, official and semi-official American circles began to pay attention to this issue and the serious developments stemming from it. Alfred McCoy, a futurist expert at American universities, asserts that “the American century, which was heralded with great fanfare at the beginning of World War II, will fade and extinguish by around 2025.”
In addition to numerous excerpts scattered throughout the book, the author dedicates the third chapter, “America in Crisis,” to detailing the reasons behind America’s loss of global leadership, particularly following the consequences of the war that President Bush fought in Iraq, which the author believes definitively cost America what it has cherished throughout its contemporary history: the successful blending of Roosevelt’s realism and Wilsonian ethics, or what Stanley Hoffman termed “historical virginity constantly renewed.” Chaliand does not reach the point some researchers describe as the “total and final bankruptcy” of the United States, nor does he assert that its decline will accelerate to such an extent that it exits the scene of major powers by 2025. He still believes that America will maintain its status despite losing many of its strengths in its comprehensive war on terrorism.
1979 and the Start of the End
The most intriguing and original thesis in the book is presented in the second chapter, “The Major Turning Point of 1979.” This contradicts all those who have dated the beginning of profound changes in the international system to the fall of the Berlin Wall, the end of the Cold War, the invasion of Iraq, or the events of September 11, 2001, asserting instead that 1979 was a critical, pivotal year that delivered the “starting blow” to the collapse of the existing global system and marked a historical turning point in the course of global policies. Chaliand identifies four events that occurred in 1979, which had decisive impacts on shaping the new system:
- The critical shift by China toward a market economy, welcomed by the United States, even hosting Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in January 1979 and signing a series of economic agreements with him. China’s decision to adopt socialism with market mechanisms was unexpected and a significant departure from the policies in place since 1949. Deng, at 90, had established a code of conduct for foreign relations consisting of 28 Chinese alphabet characters representing seven key pieces of advice: “Analyze transformations calmly; Approach change with faith and patience; Ensure our specific position; Do not boast of what we can do, nor expose ourselves to the spotlight; Maintain discretion; Never claim leadership; Seek achievement.”
- The Islamic “Khomeini” revolution in Iran, which propelled Shiite Islam into the arena of regional power dynamics, marked by strong animosity toward American imperialism.
- The second oil crisis after that of 1973, which convinced Western politicians, definitively, of the need to revise their living standards.
- The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the imposition of a pro-Soviet communist regime, marking the first military intervention by the Soviets outside the Warsaw Pact nations. This drew the United States into the fray through significant arming of Afghan mujahideen and forming an alliance with Sunni Islam led by Saudi Arabia.
According to Gérard Chaliand, these four events in 1979 fundamentally altered the equations of international struggle, contributing significantly to shaping the contours of the rising global system, accelerating the arms race, precipitating the collapse of the socialist bloc with the fall of the Berlin Wall, and reinforcing the vigorous emergence of “militant jihadism” in various parts of the world, culminating in the events of September 11, 2001. This pushed the U.S. fully into a global war against what it termed “terrorism.” This global geopolitical rift coincided with two international transformations that exacerbated its devastating repercussions on Western leadership: the dramatic demographic shift marking significant aging and population decline in the West compared to other regions and the deepening economic and financial crisis that struck Europe and the United States. This allowed for the emergence of rising economic powers like India, Brazil, South Korea, Turkey, South Africa, and Malaysia, with China leading as a major economic, military, and human power.
The Theater of Death, The Stage of Birth
The subsequent six chapters (from chapter 3 to chapter 8) delve deeply into the regions and countries that have lost control in the previous globalized system (America, Russia, Europe), as well as those witnessing the nascent birth of a new system within them or that are tangentially related (Asia, the emerging countries, Arab world, Iran), highlighting elements of strength and weakness in each, thus enabling a foresight about their roles in the emerging global system—with particular focus on Europe’s position in these transformations, especially France, which the author considers lagging significantly in responding to current events and lacking the necessary tools to reposition itself.
Chaliand concludes with chapter nine, which addresses the Far East countries and serves as a prelude to the five subsequent chapters written entirely by his co-author Michel Jan, focusing on China. Since its new policy architect Deng Xiaoping implemented his visions (1979-2012), China has experienced tremendous success in terms of economic reforms, rapid outcomes, and growing military strength, backed by a great power diplomacy that has enabled it to become the second-largest country on the international stage economically. Despite this vast opening up to the outside world and the multiplied opportunities for exchanges with various ideological, political, and public life currents from east to west, China has maintained the distinctive presence of the central state as a guardian of these transformations while also preserving a heightened sense of nationalism among its citizens.
Michel Jan’s chapters on China portray an image of ancient China and its path to modernity, elaborating on the mechanisms of China’s modern resurgence under Deng Xiaoping and the various “lessons” it faced during the profound transformations in its cultural, political, economic, military, and social structures, as well as its relationships with surrounding regions. He delves into what he believes are the “initial signs of a new Chinese era,” detailing in chapter 14 the priorities established by the Chinese Communist Party and the paths to be followed by the Chinese nation in the next five years (2013-2017) during its eighteenth congress held in November 2012. With the renewal of leadership, the party reaffirmed its confidence in the general direction taken over the past decades and outlined a long-term objective for China that would guide its policies across various sectors, particularly regarding its national resurgence and its role as a global leader by 2049, marking the centennial of the founding of the People’s Republic of China. However, numerous obstacles may prevent the realization of these aspirations or goals—some related to the social and political landscape within China, some concerning regional security dynamics, wherein some rising Asian countries may view Chinese dominance unfavorably, and some tied to interactions with the United States and other allied nations concerning the desire to defend the strategic positions of various parties situated at many maritime crossroads globally. Thus, China is likely to find itself as a clearly expansionist superpower in direct “military” confrontation with the U.S. and its allies should it mismanage its actions and resort to its old hegemonic tendencies, especially since the reassuring image it aims to project is still merely part of its “velvet glove” strategy, according to Chaliand.
Asia: The Returning Giant in International Politics
In the conclusion of the book, Chaliand offers evidence that the centers of power in the new world order have shifted from the West to Asia, particularly led by China and India, followed by some emerging regional powers like Brazil. He asserts that the United States, as a superpower, will not disappear completely from the international sphere. He maintains that the centuries during which the West (Europe and America) dominated the global order were merely an arc in the long history of civilization, and now we are witnessing a return to a multipolar world where Asia (especially China and India), the Islamic world, some South American countries, and the United States play vital roles in shaping the new international landscape in terms of structures, institutions, and values.
The authors conclude their book with a rather pessimistic foresight regarding Europe’s position and particularly France’s ability to address its issues and confront its fate with courageous and necessary revisions, hoping that Europe can position itself among the world’s top ten economic blocs by 2020.
Gérard Chaliand’s book represents a meticulous academic survey of the landscape of international relations and delineates the geopolitical, biocultural, military, and economic intersections observed in the collapse of one world system and the nascent formation of another in its stead. While he successfully utilizes various available data to understand the profound changes the world is undergoing with substantial objectivity and empathy for peoples liberated from Western hegemony, he also spares no effort in urging Europe to revise its orientations, accept a change in its self-perception and perception of others, and show humility toward emerging powers, all through advice and suggestions illustrated throughout the book.
While we can understand the absence of the African continent (except for the Maghreb and Southern Africa) and of South America (apart from Brazil) in this book, considering that they lack the prerequisites that the authors envision for the new world order—economic strength, technological advancement, and military preparedness—we can point out certain areas that exhibited “lightness” in analytical and foresight approaches, as seen, for example, in the author’s reading of the outcomes of the Arab revolutions and the impact of the region’s descent into destructive internal conflicts on the ability of the extensive Islamic area comprising Turkey, Iran, Indonesia, and Malaysia to position itself within the anticipated international map. The insights in this book become exceedingly significant when considered alongside Kishore Mahbubani’s work: “The New Asian Hemisphere: The Inevitable Shift of Global Power to the East.”
Book Information Title: Towards a New World Order (Vers un nouvel ordre du monde)
Authors: Gérard Chaliand and Michel Jan
Publication Date: April 2013
Publisher: Seuil, Paris, France
Number of Pages: 320
