The U.S. elections have become a battleground for Iran’s covert operations. It seems that the electoral process in the United States is not only affected by internal political dynamics but also by external interference. This interference has come to light through assassination attempts on Donald Trump and cyberattacks targeting his campaign. However, the situation becomes more contradictory when we consider that Iran, accused of these operations, lacks the intelligence capabilities that failed to prevent the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran. This raises questions about Iran’s involvement in the 2024 U.S. elections, why the Iranian regime has targeted Trump since his victory in the 2016 elections, and to what extent the regime poses a threat to the United States and could influence the election outcome. Additionally, it prompts speculation on how the international order will evolve over the next four years.
Since Trump’s initial victory in the 2016 election, relations between Iran and the U.S. have been strained due to Trump’s harsh policies aimed at isolating Iran from its trade partners and pushing its economy to the brink of collapse. Fearing Trump’s return to the White House, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, through a group called “Phosphor,” hacked the accounts of many Trump campaign activists and sent threatening emails to voters to dissuade them from supporting Trump and favor Biden, who promised to end harsh economic sanctions on Iran and revive the nuclear deal that Trump canceled.
In continuation of this approach, Iran has targeted the upcoming U.S. elections in November 2024. Trump accused Iran of being behind two assassination attempts against him. The first occurred during a speech at a campaign rally in Pennsylvania, and the second in West Palm Beach, Florida, earlier this month. He warned that Tehran was planning a third assassination attempt, escalating tensions between the Iranian regime and Trump.
Regarding the cyberattacks on the current elections, Microsoft revealed that a hacking group operated by an intelligence unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard successfully breached the email account of Roger Stone, a senior political advisor to Trump’s 2020 campaign, and sent fake messages to campaign accounts and databases. Trump’s campaign also suffered cyberattacks, resulting in an anonymous AOL account leaking internal campaign documents to the U.S. media.
On the other hand, the campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris was not spared from targeting. Three employees of the Biden-Harris campaign received phishing emails aimed at accessing their campaign emails. Last month, Meta announced a similar attempt against both political campaigns on the messaging app WhatsApp. U.S. intelligence agencies accused Iran of being behind these attacks, noting the hackers’ techniques matched those used by groups linked to the Revolutionary Guard.
Iran has a wide network of hackers controlled by the Revolutionary Guard, an elite and powerful force in all sectors of the country, including cyberspace. The Iranian regime also operates a network of individuals who use social media under pseudonyms to promote Iran’s viewpoints domestically, while targeting its enemies abroad through cyber threats and attempts to infiltrate security systems. Given the country’s sensitive security situation, such as military coups, revolutions, insurgencies, and elections, these attacks have become more significant.
Iranian cyberattacks on the Trump and Harris campaigns followed two main tactics. The first was phishing, involving fake emails or messages designed to trick victims into revealing personal information. The second was direct phishing, a more targeted approach using specific information to make the message appear official. Iranian groups like Mint Sandstorm, Peach Sandstorm, APT42, and Storm-2035 tried to infiltrate the email accounts of campaign employees, accessing sensitive campaign information and spreading misinformation about Trump and Harris.
This overview reveals Iran’s goals behind these attacks: to sow internal tensions, manipulate the U.S. political system, and influence election outcomes. This effort ultimately tarnishes the reputation of the U.S. political system on a broad scale. Iran’s apparent focus on targeting Trump’s campaign suggests its primary goal is to undermine his chances of returning to the White House, as his reelection poses the greatest threat to Iran amid the ongoing war between Iran and its most important U.S. ally, Israel.
These cyberattacks not only raise concerns about U.S.-Iran relations but also about shaping international politics and influencing foreign policy strategies. The increasing sophistication of disinformation campaigns relying on artificial intelligence and fake news sites poses challenges to traditional security measures. Consequently, countries are increasingly turning to cyber tools rather than direct conflict to achieve their goals. Iran serves as a prime example, having invested in enhancing its cyber capabilities to influence U.S. election results or gather sensitive intelligence related to foreign policy during election campaigns.
Since the establishment of the Islamic Republic in 1979, disinformation and propaganda have been integral to Iran’s identity. As technology has evolved, so too have Iran’s tactics and ambitions. Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei described cyberspace as the new frontier of jihad, and based on this ideology, Iran has conducted covert information operations against its adversaries, particularly Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States. However, recent years have seen Iran’s propaganda efforts become more diverse and ambitious.
Tehran always denies any involvement in disinformation campaigns, U.S.-targeted websites, or assassination attempts on Trump in recent months, claiming it has no intention or motive to interfere in the U.S. elections. Yet, Iran’s longstanding enmity with the U.S., especially with Trump, is undeniable. Perhaps the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal, the sanctions imposed on Iran, and the assassination of General Qassem Soleimani pushed Tehran to adopt a retaliatory stance against Trump.
Since the cyberattacks have targeted Trump’s campaign to return to the White House, as well as the campaigns of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris, Iran’s goal this time seems broader than merely influencing the election outcome in favor of one candidate over another, as was the case in 2016 and 2020. Its aim now is to tarnish the reputation of the U.S. political system, which has long been promoted as a symbol of democracy worldwide.
In conclusion, it can be said that Kamala Harris’s victory would benefit Iran, as a Democratic candidate’s victory could be more manageable, particularly given the regional developments that cannot afford Trump’s reckless policies against U.S. adversaries, especially Iran and China. This outcome could also undermine U.S. support for Israel, potentially leading to an end to the aggression in Gaza, as well as the cessation of the fierce war between Israel and Iran’s ally in Lebanon, Hezbollah.
Most importantly, Iran has recently elected a moderate president. Masoud Bezhkian ran his campaign on improving relations with the West, including pledging to renegotiate a nuclear deal to ease the economic burden of sanctions on Iran. Bezhkian has also allied with former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, a key player in the signing of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Thus, Bezhkian’s victory and the potential election of Harris offer an opportunity to improve U.S.-Iran relations and perhaps avoid a looming full-scale war in the Middle East.
