Amid the noticeable expansion of Chinese influence in Southeast and East Asia, Japan has intensified its actions in recent weeks to strengthen its regional alliances in order to confront the potential repercussions of Beijing’s growing influence. This has involved expanding security coordination and military cooperation with the United States, South Korea, and the Philippines — raising important questions about the possible repercussions of these moves on regional balances in East Asia.
Intensified Moves
Within complex regional and international contexts, Japan has recently undertaken several steps aimed at enhancing security and military coordination with its allies to counter any potential Chinese escalation. These moves can be outlined as follows:
1. Consolidating the Traditional Alliance with the United States
In recent weeks, Japan has taken notable steps to reinforce its longstanding alliance with the United States. In mid-January 2026, deputy foreign ministers from both countries met to exchange views on prospects for cooperation, strengthen the bilateral alliance, and coordinate the Japanese prime minister’s visit to Washington in March 2026.
These meetings resulted in agreements to enhance economic cooperation, reduce the impact of tariffs, and cooperate in critical minerals and rare earth elements, as well as in advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence and shipbuilding. The two sides also agreed to strengthen regional maritime cooperation with like-minded Asian countries.
Additionally, they agreed to expand cooperation in air-to-air and surface-to-air missile systems through joint production of defense equipment, broaden joint military exercises in southwestern Japan — home to most U.S. military bases in the region — and expand their military presence in waters southwest of Japan’s mainland. During a meeting in Washington between Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi and U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, both pledged to enhance cooperation in supply chains, including critical minerals.
They also agreed to continue modernizing alliance command and control structures, make bilateral drills more realistic, and improve force posture and presence, including in Japan’s southwestern islands.
In October 2025, during U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Japan, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi demonstrated unusual closeness toward Washington, making significant efforts to accommodate Trump. These reportedly included promising to nominate him for the Nobel Prize and pledging to increase defense spending to 2% of GDP by the end of the current fiscal year through a supplementary budget. This marked a clear departure from the more moderate, flexible balancing approach of her predecessors, as Takaichi seeks to counterbalance Chinese influence.
2. Strengthening Coordination with South Korea
Japan is also seeking to deepen rapprochement with South Korea and align Seoul more closely with Tokyo amid rising tensions with Beijing.
In mid-January 2026, Japan hosted South Korean President Lee Jae-myung for an official visit to Tokyo, where he met with the Japanese prime minister in a two-day summit. The two sides agreed to strengthen cooperation in supply chains, artificial intelligence, and measures to combat transnational crime. They also committed to enhancing comprehensive partnerships in economic security, science, and technology.
3. A New Military Agreement with the Philippines
In mid-January 2026, the foreign ministers of Japan and the Philippines signed a defense logistics agreement known as the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement (ACSA). Under this agreement, ammunition, fuel, food, and other necessities can be supplied tax-free during joint exercises aimed at enhancing deterrence against growing Chinese activity in the region and improving disaster preparedness.
Japan also announced new security and economic development assistance to the Philippines, including funding for security boat shelters and expanded internet access in impoverished southern provinces previously affected by a separatist insurgency led by a Muslim minority.
Both sides reaffirmed their commitment to ensuring freedom of navigation and overflight, particularly in the South China Sea, and to opposing unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East and South China Seas — without explicitly naming China.
Interconnected Contexts
Japan’s recent moves come amid several regional developments that signal rising tensions and shifting power balances in Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
1. Repercussions of U.S. Moves Against Venezuela
Some assessments warn that increased U.S. activity in Latin America could have direct implications for the Asian geopolitical landscape. There are concerns that China might move to annex Taiwan, citing precedents set by U.S. actions elsewhere.
Western assessments indicate growing Chinese preparations for a potential “decapitation” operation targeting anti-Beijing Taiwanese leadership via special forces, reportedly training on a replica of Taiwan’s presidential palace since 2015. Meanwhile, China has intensified military exercises around Taiwan, signaling the possibility of action should circumstances permit.
2. Escalating Sino-Japanese Tensions
Since Sanae Takaichi assumed office in November 2025, tensions between Beijing and Tokyo have intensified, particularly due to Japan’s stance on Taiwan. China has responded with several economic escalation measures, most recently banning exports of dual-use rare earth elements to Japan. This adds to earlier restrictions on Japanese imports into China, reductions in flights, and other coercive trade measures aimed at countering what Beijing views as a Japanese threat to China’s national security regarding Taiwan.
Key Implications
1. Chinese Discontent
China has expressed strong displeasure at Japan’s recent moves, especially the military agreement with the Philippines, arguing that they undermine Chinese interests and regional stability. Beijing has warned against Japan’s growing militarization, evoking historical sensitivities regarding Japan’s military past.
Chinese media have criticized these actions as exaggerating the “China threat” to justify targeting Chinese interests. Beijing views Japan’s efforts as attempts to involve external actors in South China Sea issues, thereby complicating matters, and argues that the Japan–Philippines agreement aims more at boosting Japanese arms exports than promoting regional peace.
2. Growing Domestic Opposition in Japan
Although Japan’s government frames its actions as countering growing Chinese influence, Japanese companies have expressed concerns about the economic consequences. Following China’s rare earth export ban, many firms fear further disruptions.
According to a Reuters survey, more than two-thirds of Japanese companies expect Japan’s economy to suffer from deteriorating relations with China. Nearly half reported direct or anticipated impacts on their operations, and about 43% indicated that prolonged tensions could prompt a reassessment of China-related business.
3. Questions About U.S. Reliability
Japan’s regional diplomacy also reflects growing concerns about the reliability of the United States as a strategic ally, particularly after President Donald Trump threatened to take control of Greenland — potentially straining relations with NATO allies. A similar dynamic could unfold in Asia, especially given Trump’s inclination toward isolationist policies and prioritizing U.S. interests.
As a result, Asian allies appear increasingly interested in strengthening bilateral ties among themselves as a hedge against potential U.S. retrenchment. Nevertheless, Japan continues to keep the United States central to its diplomatic agenda, signaling its desire to preserve the alliance.
Potential Repercussions
1. Shifts in Asian Nuclear Security Balance
If U.S. deterrence weakens, concerns about North Korea’s nuclear threat could intensify. This might encourage Asian powers to enhance cooperation to develop independent nuclear capabilities, potentially reviving South Korean and Japanese debates over indigenous nuclear arsenals — though such ambitions would face significant obstacles.
2. Fragile Alliances
Despite Japan’s efforts, these alliances remain fragile. South Korea may struggle to mediate between Japan and China. President Lee Jae-myung has affirmed that South Korea will not engage in a potential regional military conflict, emphasizing the need to protect national interests and regional peace — a position reflected in his recent visit to Beijing prior to traveling to Japan.
Chinese assessments also note that the Japan–South Korea partnership is limited by unresolved historical disputes and sovereignty disagreements over the Dokdo (South Korean term) / Takeshima (Japanese term) islands, making the alliance vulnerable to breakdown.
Assessment
Despite Japan’s accelerated efforts to strengthen regional alliances to counter China’s expanding influence — and to hedge against potential U.S. disengagement — these emerging partnerships are not yet capable of replacing the American role, given persistent bilateral challenges and the continued perception of the United States as the cornerstone of regional balance.
Over the longer term, however, outcomes remain uncertain. Continued U.S. retrenchment combined with expanding Chinese influence could reshape regional equations, possibly fostering alternative alliance structures among U.S. partners — a development China is likely to resist in order to prevent the emergence of arrangements that threaten its interests.
