Climate change advocates around the world eagerly await the outcomes of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, known as COP29, which will be held in Baku, Azerbaijan, from November 11 to 22, 2024. They hope that leaders and officials will seize this opportunity to accelerate action on the climate crisis, especially as the world faces record-high temperatures and the increasing impact of weather phenomena on human lives globally, including unprecedented floods in Spain, violent storms and hurricanes in the United States, and wildfires in South America.
Coinciding with the first day of COP29, the World Meteorological Organization released a report indicating that 2024 is on track to become the hottest year on record. The organization’s Secretary-General, Celeste Saulo, stated that “record-breaking rains and floods, rapidly intensifying tropical storms, deadly heat, droughts destroying vast areas, and raging wildfires that we have witnessed in various parts of the world this year are, unfortunately, our new reality and a warning of what our future holds.”
In light of the above, this analysis focuses on hurricanes and the impact of climate change on them, especially following the recent experience of the United States with a number of hurricanes and powerful storms, such as Hurricanes Helen and Milton, which President Joe Biden described as “expected to remain one of the most powerful hurricanes to hit Florida in over a century and one of the most destructive.” The United States has developed risk reduction systems to enhance preparedness and response capabilities for these increasingly frequent and severe disasters in recent decades.
Hurricane Losses:
Hurricanes, or severe storms, are referred to by different names around the world, which cause high wind speeds. When wind speeds exceed 17 meters per second, they are called “tropical storms,” and when wind speeds reach 33 meters per second, they are termed “hurricanes” in the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific regions. The same type of disturbances in the Northwest Pacific is called “typhoons,” while in the Southwest Pacific and Southeast Indian Ocean, they are referred to as “cyclones,” and in the Northern and Southwestern Indian Ocean, they are termed “tropical cyclones.”
According to the International Disaster Database, the world experienced approximately 1,829 severe storms with various designations from 2000 to 2024, resulting in over 213,000 deaths and affecting more than 594 million others, with direct damage costs recorded at over $1.8 trillion.
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information, the United States has faced around 400 climate disasters from 1980 to the beginning of November 2024, leading to the deaths of approximately 16,768 individuals, and the economic losses from these events exceeded $2.789 trillion.
Severe storms and hurricanes have prominently featured among these catastrophic events. From 2000 to 2024, the United States recorded about 226 severe storms and hurricanes that resulted in 8,202 deaths and economic losses estimated at approximately $1.72 trillion. The average number of major climate disasters from 1980 to 2024 was 8.9 events annually, while the average over the latest five years (2019-2024) was 21 events, reflecting a clear increase in major climate disasters in recent years.
From the beginning of 2024 until November 1 of the same year, the United States experienced about 24 major climate disasters, which resulted in 418 deaths and had significant economic impacts on affected areas. Among these, 17 disasters were due to severe storms and tropical hurricanes (about 87.5% of climate disasters until November 1, 2024), leading to the deaths of 355 individuals and economic losses estimated at over $56.3 billion.
In late September of this year, Hurricane Helen struck the Southeastern United States, claiming the lives of over 225 people; it is considered the strongest recorded hurricane to hit the Big Bend area of Florida, and the most deadly Atlantic hurricane since Hurricane Maria in 2017, and the deadliest to strike the United States since Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Less than two weeks after Hurricane Helen, Hurricane Milton hit Florida, resulting in approximately 24 deaths, making it the fourth most powerful hurricane and the second Category 5 hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and it is the strongest tropical hurricane recorded worldwide in 2024 so far.
Although there is no official data yet on the financial losses caused by the two hurricanes, estimates from CoreLogic, a leading American information services company, suggest that losses from Hurricane Helen alone could reach $47.5 billion.
Impact of Climate Change:
A recently published study coinciding with the beginning of COP29 indicates that rising ocean temperatures not only fuel powerful Atlantic storms but also lead to their rapid intensification, with storms changing from Category 1 to Category 3 in just hours. There is growing evidence that this also applies to other oceans. For instance, Hurricane Milton needed only one day in the Gulf of Mexico last October to transition from a tropical storm to the second strongest hurricane in that region.
A group of scientists used various approaches to investigate the impact of climate change on different aspects of Hurricane Helen, as reported in a study published on October 9 by Imperial College London. The key findings were as follows:
- Climate changes led to extremely heavy rainfall in the southern states even before the hurricane-related rains arrived, causing devastating floods; the rainfall was about 10% heavier at least due to climate change.
- The storm analysis model (IRIS) was used to examine the strong winds caused by the hurricane, showing that climate change was responsible for a 150% increase in the number of such storms, with peak wind speeds now becoming about 11% stronger.
- Collectively, these results indicate that climate change enhances the conditions favorable for hurricanes like Helen, with increases in overall rainfall and wind speeds. This aligns with other scientific findings that state that Atlantic tropical storms have become wetter due to climate change and undergo faster intensification.
Developing Response Strategies:
The harsh history of the impact of storms and hurricanes in the U.S. and other countries underscores the importance of enhancing and developing preparedness and response capabilities for increasing climate disasters, particularly hurricanes, which have become more frequent and intense over the last two decades. This necessitates the development of effective strategies to address them across various institutional, legislative, planning, and organizational levels, enhancing awareness and improving preparedness and early warning capabilities.
Early preparations can reduce damage and losses by up to 50%. A report from the National Institute of Building Sciences states that every dollar invested in preparedness efforts can save up to
According to an economic study conducted by Allstate and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in June 2024, every dollar spent on climate resilience and preparedness provides communities with approximately $6 in response and rebuilding cost savings. Moreover, it delivers about $13 in damage reduction and mitigation of adverse economic effects.
This can be illustrated as follows:
The Importance of Early Warning: Early preparation is one of the most crucial elements in mitigating the impact of disasters, including the establishment of effective evacuation plans and providing accurate information to residents on how to respond to hurricanes. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), prediction accuracy has improved by 50% over the past decade, providing residents with more time to prepare.
Training Local Communities and Enhancing Technology Use: Government agencies provide training programs for communities to raise awareness about how to act during disasters and emergencies. A survey by the National Weather Association in 2023 revealed that around 68% of participants felt they were more prepared for hurricanes than they were five years ago, attributed to increased awareness and access to early warning systems.
Infrastructure Development: Improving infrastructure is a critical step in reducing damages from hurricanes, including building levees, enhancing drainage systems, and upgrading electrical networks. For example, New Orleans implemented infrastructure projects following Hurricane Katrina in 2005 to improve future preparedness. According to the economic study by Allstate and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, after investing
Investing $10.8 billion in resilience and preparedness against a Category 4 hurricane in Miami is projected to spare the area a loss of approximately 184,000 jobs. These investments are expected to save $26 billion in production and $17 billion in income.
Institutional Cooperation: The U.S. administration has supported preparedness capabilities by enhancing collaboration among various stakeholders, including the federal government, states, and local communities. This collaboration includes information sharing, developing joint emergency plans, and coordinating partnerships with non-governmental organizations that play a vital role in enhancing preparedness capacities, such as the American Red Cross, which has provided training and support to local communities, thereby enhancing awareness and preparing individuals for disaster response.
In conclusion, effective risk management requires “risk governance,” which clearly distinguishes responses for each event and reduces risks comprehensively through integrated analysis and the application of new insights on managing past disaster events, learning lessons from history to guide present actions and form greater resilience for the future. The United States has developed its strategies to mitigate the risks from storms and hurricanes in response to the frequent exposure to these extreme phenomena, through deeper data analysis to understand climatic patterns and better predict hurricane impacts, identify the most vulnerable areas, and effectively allocate resources, enabling informed decisions that integrate with other steps and measures such as emergency planning, training workers and volunteers, enhancing community awareness, and coordinating efforts among various agencies at different levels.
