Disputes surrounding the schedule of presidential and parliamentary elections are fueling the struggle for power and influence in Guinea-Bissau. Efforts by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to resolve the crisis have failed after the country’s president, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, threatened to expel the mission. This development is happening in a country that has witnessed four successful coups and numerous failed attempts, and has endured over 30 years of military-style democracy.
This article will address the political unrest in Guinea-Bissau, the causes of the ongoing crisis, and highlight its indicators in light of the failed ECOWAS mediation, whose regional influence has been declining in recent years.
Guinea-Bissau: A Brief History of Political Unrest
Guinea-Bissau is located in West Africa, bordered by Senegal to the north, Guinea-Conakry to the east and south, and the Atlantic Ocean to the west. The country gained independence from Portugal in 1974 after a decade-long liberation struggle led by the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde (PAIGC). Following independence, internal conflict arose, and in 1980, João Bernardo Vieira overthrew the first president, Luís Cabral, ruling for nearly two decades before being ousted in 1999 during a civil war (1998-1999) that erupted mainly after the dismissal of the military chief of staff, Colonel Ansumane Mané, leading to the overthrow and subsequent exile of President Vieira to Portugal.
In the aftermath of the civil war, presidential and parliamentary elections were held, and opposition leader Kumba Yalá and his Social Renewal Party (PRS) emerged victorious. However, he was also overthrown in a coup in September 2003, and Henrique Rosa assumed the presidency.
The country experienced a brief period of democratic leadership, and Vieira returned to power in 2005 after elections, but was assassinated in 2009 amid political unrest. In 2012, a military seizure of power disrupted the elections, and the country returned to a short period of democracy in 2014 when José Mário Vaz became the first president of Guinea-Bissau to serve a full term, although that period was not free from political crises, particularly between the head of state and the prime minister, which has also been present in the current administration of President Umaro Sissoco Embaló, a former army colonel who served as prime minister between 2016 and 2018.
Embaló, a former member of the African Party for the Independence of Guinea-Bissau and Cape Verde, ran for the presidency in 2019 under the banner of the Movement for Democratic Change – Group of 15 (Madem G15), a splinter party from the African Party. Embaló came in second place in the first round of voting, securing 27% of the votes, but garnered 54% in the runoff, defeating his opponent and former prime minister, Domingos Simões Pereira, who questioned the validity of his rival’s victory despite the repeated confirmation of the results by the electoral commission.
However, the Supreme Court and the parliament did not approve the holding of the constitutional oath ceremony after the Supreme Court expressed doubts that the electoral commission had not complied with its orders for a full vote audit. Nonetheless, Embaló took the constitutional oath in an alternative ceremony inside a hotel on February 28, 2020, declaring himself the country’s legal president, and Mario Vaz, the outgoing president, stepped down for him. Pereira and other politicians, including Aristides Gomes, the prime minister during Mario Vaz’s term, described Embaló’s move as an “electoral coup.” Since assuming the presidency, Embaló’s rule has faced instability, evidenced by two attempted coups in the past three years.
The 2025 Presidential and Parliamentary Election Crisis
The current tension in Guinea-Bissau revolves around the schedule of parliamentary and presidential elections, which is also tied to conflicting views on the role of the executive branch in the semi-presidential system adopted in the 1993 constitution to enhance the separation of powers between the executive, parliament, and judiciary, and to limit power abuses and impunity, which characterized President João Bernardo Vieira’s era. Under this system, the president of Guinea-Bissau is the head of state, while the prime minister, appointed by the parliament, is the head of government and appoints ministers and sets the daily agenda, although the head of state has the power to dismiss the prime minister under certain circumstances.
However, the semi-presidential system has not eliminated tensions and competition between the occupants of the two positions. In the legislative elections held in June 2023, the speaker of the parliament, Domingos Simões Pereira (Embaló’s opponent), ran under the platform of the “Inclusive Alliance – Terra Ranka,” which includes the African Party for the Independence of Guinea and Cape Verde and other smaller parties, proposing constitutional reforms to clarify the powers of the president and the prime minister. The result was an electoral setback for Embaló due to internal party disputes and his declining popularity among rural voters affected by falling cashew prices, their main source of income. The “Inclusive Alliance – Terra Ranka” platform secured a majority of seats in the parliament (54 seats), as well as the support of 12 members from other parties.
The outcome of the 2023 legislative elections diminished President Embaló’s vision of presidential and executive power, as he sought to secure a parliamentary majority to enshrine his vision of presidential power in a new constitution. He resorted to forming a shadow government of “presidential advisors” comprising former ministers and security personnel close to the army and police to counter the parliamentary defeat and bypass constitutional reform. Moreover, he dissolved the parliament twice (in May 2022 and December 2023) on the pretext of coup attempts, dismissed Prime Minister Geraldo Martins, and prevented members of parliament from entering the parliament building.
Furthermore, considering that the constitution of Guinea-Bissau sets the presidential term at five years, renewable once, it is assumed that Embaló’s five-year term officially ended on February 28 of the previous year. However, Embaló believes that his term will end in September of the coming year, supported by the country’s Supreme Court of Justice, which ruled that his presidency ends on September 4. Embaló set November 23 as the date for the elections, insisting that he will remain in power until that day. This move has raised allegations that he is attempting to hold legislative elections before the presidential elections to regain a parliamentary majority, which could help him secure the presidency later.
As for the Speaker of the Parliament Pereira (Embaló’s opponent), he has been accused of embezzling 35 billion CFA francs (approximately $57.6 million) during his tenure as prime minister between 2014 and 2015, and was also barred from leaving the country in August 2024 due to a judicial review regarding his role in the 2021 coup attempt against President Embaló’s government.
Regarding the schedule of presidential and parliamentary elections, Pereira insists on Embaló’s immediate resignation due to the end of both the five-year presidential term and the four-year parliamentary term, arguing that new presidential and parliamentary elections should be held within 90 days, not in November of the coming year as proposed by President Embaló, and that the dissolved parliament should be urgently reconvened to appoint the National Electoral Commission and elect the president of the Constitutional Court, whose term has ended.
It appears from Embaló’s actions that he is determined to prevent his rival Pereira from assuming any influential position in the country, especially after media reports on March 3, 2025, indicated that Embaló told journalists at Bissau Airport, upon his return from a trip to Russia, Azerbaijan, and Hungary, that he will run for a second term, retracting his previous announcement in September 2024 that he would not seek a second term.
It is worth noting that Guinea-Bissau ranks low in governance and development indicators at both the African and international levels, such as the 2024 Ibrahim Index of African Governance, which classified the country as having a low governance score of approximately 40.9 out of 100, placing it near the bottom of the African continent in terms of governance. Despite efforts indicating that the authorities under Embaló’s leadership are combating drug trafficking, such as the seizure of 2.63 tons of cocaine on a plane at the international airport of the capital in September 2024, Guinea-Bissau, with an estimated population of 2.2 million as of February of the previous year, remains a focal point for cocaine traffickers in West Africa.
Failure of ECOWAS Mediation Mission
Guinea-Bissau is a founding member of ECOWAS since March 15, 1976, and there is a complex relationship between the regional bloc and President Embaló, as he chaired the organization from mid-2022 to mid-2023, with his responsibilities including addressing a range of regional challenges, such as security crises and political instability among member states. He also participated in mediation efforts regarding political dynamics in the Sahel region, such as volunteering in July 2024 during the ECOWAS summit to improve relations with the “Alliance of Sahel States” (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), and he conducted diplomatic missions to resolve international issues, such as a peace mission to Russia and Ukraine that he embarked on in October 2022.
In the context of tensions surrounding the presidential and parliamentary elections in Guinea-Bissau, ECOWAS sought to mediate by sending a mission in February of the previous year that spent a week in the country conducting intensive consultations with various stakeholders, including government officials, political leaders, electoral management bodies, civil society organizations, and international partners, to discuss challenges and concerns related to the electoral process, with the aim of reaching a middle ground and a political agreement on a strategy for holding inclusive and peaceful elections this year.
Despite President Embaló welcoming the mission upon its arrival, its activities abruptly halted after he threatened to expel it, possibly because the mission’s draft (whose details are still not publicly disclosed) and its communication with all political parties in the country did not reinforce Embaló’s position and political vision. This threat led to the mission and the “United Nations Office for West Africa” leaving the country earlier than expected, and the delegation announced its intention to submit a report to the ECOWAS Commission President summarizing the mission’s findings and recommendations to ensure inclusive and peaceful elections in the country.
Furthermore, Embaló’s threat contradicts his commitment to promoting peace and dialogue in West Africa and beyond, and it suggests that he is leaning towards Russia and may emulate the military leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to achieve his goal. He is not alone in this, as Togo hinted in January of the previous year at the possibility of joining the “Alliance of Sahel States,” which may be a result of the rushed constitutional reforms (aimed at strengthening the rule of the “Gnassingbé” family that has been in power for over 57 years in Togo), but it has also deepened political tensions in the country.
Indicators and Expectations
The depth of political crises in Guinea-Bissau generally indicates that the fierce competition for power and influence among the political elite is often due to the concentration of power on political patronage. This dynamic of power and its influence reinforces political and financial interests in strategic areas, including drug trafficking, tax revenue embezzlement, control over procurement contracts, and more.
The ongoing tension surrounding President Embaló’s term and the schedule of presidential and parliamentary elections highlights the fragility of political institutions in Guinea-Bissau, including the judiciary, parliament, and electoral bodies, making it difficult to establish democracy in the country. It seems that Embaló, as the occupant of the presidential office, still dominates the political landscape, especially considering his presumed closeness to the army and police. However, governance, economic, and healthcare issues may play a role in this year’s elections, as nearly two-thirds of the population lives in poverty, and the country lags behind the continent in many development indicators, and improving health and education services are key elements in the successful campaign platform of the “Inclusive Alliance – Terra Ranka” in the 2023 parliamentary elections.
In the coming months, it is expected that electoral competition will intensify, depending on the composition of the “National Electoral Commission” responsible for organizing and managing elections in the country, as the executive secretariat of the commission is composed of judges nominated by the Supreme Council of the Judiciary and elected by a two-thirds majority of parliament members for a term of four years. The current status of this commission has been a point of contention, as the dissolution of the parliament hindered the appointment of vacant positions in the executive secretariat, and the term of the electoral commission ended on April 30, 2022, and the election of its former president as the president of the Supreme Court in December 2021 left the position of the commission’s president vacant.
Furthermore, the opposition in Guinea-Bissau has refused to recognize Embaló’s presidency since the end of February of the previous year and has threatened to organize large-scale marches and strikes that were postponed to ascertain the results of the ECOWAS mission’s efforts. This means that the mission’s failure and early departure from the country may pave the way for further instability, as protests and opposition threats to paralyze the country and potential conflicts between political factions may lead to acts of violence. Given the country’s history of military intervention, political instability may ignite the fuse of another coup attempt or even larger political crises that extend to neighboring countries, weakening law enforcement and opening the country’s doors to expanded organized crime. In the event of military intervention or unconstitutional seizure of power, continental and regional organizations, such as the African Union and ECOWAS, may be forced to impose sanctions on Guinea-Bissau, exacerbating economic and livelihood crises.
In the regional context, the failure of the ECOWAS group to mediate and resolve the political crisis indicates a decline in the regional bloc’s status in maintaining peace in West Africa, in addition to a decline in the influence of its mechanisms to enforce democratic principles and settle internal disputes. The mission’s hasty departure in response to President Embaló’s threats also indicates a lack of authority and respect, casting doubts on ECOWAS’s ability to act as a regional mediator or an influential force in stabilizing the region, based on previous failures in managing political transitions and military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. This development strengthens the likelihood that more member states will challenge ECOWAS’s authority or disregard its decisions in the future, putting at risk economic and regional integration initiatives and security cooperation arrangements.
Conclusion
From the above, it can be concluded that the ongoing political crises in Guinea-Bissau go beyond just scheduling the 2025 presidential and parliamentary elections, as they revolve around the struggle for power and influence and differing visions on government functioning and democratic institutions and the use of executive power. The current tension raises questions about whether the parliamentary and presidential elections will be held on the date that the opposition considers legally valid, or the date announced by President Embaló. The danger of the current political situation lies in the fact that if it is not addressed through dialogue and the conduct of fair elections, the long-standing instability may worsen, deepening economic challenges and security threats.
Given that Guinea-Bissau may be a regional crossroads for instability if the security situation erupts, both ECOWAS and the African Union, as well as other partners, need to continue communication efforts with all political parties in the country to ensure a peaceful transition and security stability, regardless of President Embaló’s threats or other obstacles.
References
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- Leandro, Francisco José, and Paulo Gonçalves. “Brittle Guinea-Bissau: a quest for political and economic stability.” Janus. net 13, no. 2 (2022): 354-372.
- O’Regan, Davin, and Peter Thompson. Advancing Stability and Reconciliation in Guinea-Bissau: Lessons from Africa’s First Narco-State. Vol. 2. Washington, DC: Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 2013, p.7
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- Joseph Siegle and Hany Wahila, op. cit.
- “Police in Guinea-Bissau seize nearly 3 tons of cocaine on plane from Venezuela.” Africa News, September 10, 2024, https://shorturl.at/zmJiD (retrieved March 11, 2025)
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- Ibid.
- “Togo weighs joining the alliance of Sahel states, says foreign minister.” Africa News, January 17, 2025
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