Opinions regarding the efforts of the Biden administration to end the Israeli war on the Gaza Strip, which has lasted more than 400 days and resulted in the deaths of over 40,000 Palestinian civilians, vary considerably. This can be seen in the statements of senior U.S. officials, notably U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who recently asserted that Israel has achieved its objectives in Gaza and should end this war. However, there are other statements reaffirming continued American support for Israel. With Trump’s victory, Biden’s remaining time in the White House is described as a “lame duck” period, the brief time leading up to his departure on January 20, 2025, during which the President’s ability to make substantial changes in various areas of U.S. policy—both domestic and foreign—diminishes.
Biden’s Motivations
Several factors may serve as incentives for Biden to alter the current situation in Gaza during his remaining days in the White House, including the following:
Adding a Legacy Achievement: Biden’s exit from the White House signifies not just a departure from the presidency but also a conclusion to his political activity spanning over 50 years, since he was elected to the Senate and served as Vice President under Barack Obama. Biden may wish to bolster his political record and legacy, which may be tarnished by criticisms regarding U.S. support for Israel’s human rights violations in Gaza, given the extensive military and diplomatic support he provided without intervening to stop the war. This sentiment was echoed by Anil Shilin, a former U.S. State Department official who resigned in March 2024, expressing her rejection of U.S. policy towards Israel in Gaza.
Restoring the Democratic Administration’s Credibility: The current Democratic administration may seek any success to add to its foreign policy achievements, especially after failing in various international issues and showing a significant weakness in the U.S. role in Middle Eastern conflicts, aside from its defense of Israel. Thus, the administration may exert pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to halt the war on Gaza and reach a deal for the release of hostages held by Hamas.
Preventing Trump from Claiming Victory Over Biden: It’s known that the elected president, Donald Trump, aims to end the war swiftly, even before taking office, although he has not disclosed the means to do so. However, there are great expectations for his capability to achieve this goal, which could motivate the Biden administration to intervene strongly and conclude this war that would serve as an additional asset for Trump if he succeeds in ending it upon returning to the Oval Office in early January 2024.
Opportunities for Change
There are potential avenues that President Joe Biden’s administration could pursue at this time to change the course of the war in Gaza, or more accurately, to end it and reach an agreement for the return of prisoners held by Hamas. These avenues are as follows:
Increasing Pressure for Humanitarian Aid: Currently, focusing on allowing more humanitarian aid into Gaza could be prioritized; the U.S. administration is pressuring Israel to permit the entry of more humanitarian supplies to the residents of Gaza, aiming for the number of trucks allowed to enter to reach 360 per day. Otherwise, military aid to Israel could be halted, particularly as the United Nations warns of worsening conditions and increasing famine within the territory. This has prompted Israel to increase the number of trucks from 30 in October 2024 to about 150, although this number does not meet the needs of the over two million residents suffering from the continuous Israeli attacks in northern and central Gaza and the difficulties in accessing food resources due to a lack of responsible institutions or forces to distribute the aid.
Israel Delaying Until Trump Takes Office: Even if Washington pressures Tel Aviv and halts military aid to Israel, it is unlikely to contribute to ending the ongoing war in Gaza at this time, despite Israel incurring tens of billions of dollars in budgetary losses. Israel is expected to delay until the newly elected President Donald Trump arrives in the White House, given that he is anticipated to implement less stringent policies toward Israel regarding human rights and aid. He will also seek to end the war in a manner favorable to Israel, which means Israel will not be compelled to make significant concessions for any negotiation deal.
Potential Success for Biden in Ceasing the War: Some predictions indicate that halting military aid to Israel could negatively affect the course of the Israeli war on Gaza and might create an opportunity for a ceasefire, even temporarily, until a prisoner exchange agreement is in place and arrangements for governing Gaza post-war are established. It is important to note that Israel’s current pursuit of annexing the West Bank and establishing settlements there underscores its lack of intention to cease this war, especially as it gains multiple advantages believed to undermine the Palestinian cause permanently. However, a U.S. move to halt military support to Israel may encourage Western countries supplying military aid, such as Canada and the UK, to also stop sending arms, putting Israel in a predicament and potentially prompting it to end the war in Gaza, as it would be unable to engage in war on two fronts in Lebanon and Palestine without military assistance.
Pushing for a Reduction in Military Operations: The Biden administration could slow the pace of the ongoing war in Gaza and reduce the level of mass atrocities occurring there by decreasing the level of military support provided and altering the nature of military shipments sent. This would demonstrate to the global audience the U.S.’s capability to influence Israel’s decisions. However, following a meeting between President Biden and Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the White House, Washington announced that “there will be no change in military aid to Israel, even amid its failure to implement the steps requested by Washington.”
Slim Hope
In conclusion, it can be said that there is a difficulty, when reading the current indicators, in foreseeing a likelihood of changing the status quo or ending the Israeli war on Gaza, especially since Biden views his support for Israel as stemming from his convictions rather than from the urgent needs of the moment directing U.S. policy in specific directions. He has consistently classified himself as “a strong Zionist” and a steadfast supporter of Israel throughout his career. Thus, upon careful review of Biden’s actions as President over the past four years, it can be predicted that he will not adopt bold measures during this “lame duck” period, indicating that the Israeli war in Gaza may continue for several more months.
