As expected, the outcome of the special session held by the Japanese Parliament on November 11, 2024, resulted in the current Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, retaining his position. He took office on October 1 following the resignation of the previous Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida.
This session followed the elections held on October 27, which legally required a parliamentary vote to select a Prime Minister within 30 days after the general elections. Ishiba surpassed the main opposition leader, Yoshihiko Noda, by securing 221 votes against 160.
Ishiba’s reelection as head of the next government, representing the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), was based on two main factors. The first factor is that the coalition of opposition parties is weak and fragmented to the extent that it cannot agree on and secure the necessary votes to support their candidate for Prime Minister. The second factor is that Ishiba’s hardline stance on defense and national security issues generally aligns with smaller parties that he may negotiate with to form the next government.
Ishiba and Domestic Challenges:
Ishiba’s journey in leading the new government will not be easy at all. On one hand, the Japanese House of Representatives is evidently divided following the recent parliamentary elections on October 27, 2024, between the ruling coalition, composed of the LDP and Komeito, and the opposition block along with independents. The number of seats held by the LDP in this house declined to 191 seats from 247 before the recent elections, marking a staggering loss of 56 seats. Komeito also suffered a significant loss, with a decrease of 8 seats, bringing its total to 24 seats. This results in a combined total for both parties of only 215 seats, which is approximately 18 seats short of the minimum parliamentary majority of 233 seats out of a total of 465.
At the same time, the results of the recent elections revealed that opposition parties and independents gained 238 seats. The leading opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, secured 148 seats, while the Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) obtained 38 seats. The Progressive Democratic Party received 28 seats, the Reiwa Shinsengumi acquired 9 seats, and the Japanese Communist Party got 8 seats, with the Social Democratic Party obtaining just 1 seat.
In light of these results, there are two potential scenarios for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in forming the new government. The first scenario is to establish a “minority government” while attempting to create a “partial coalition” with one or more opposition parties, depending on the proposed legislative bills, such as budget proposals and international treaties. Nonetheless, such a situation may not achieve the desired stability for Ishiba’s upcoming government. In this scenario, the new government would be vulnerable to collapse if Ishiba fails to meet the demands of his opponents.
The second scenario involves expanding the current ruling coalition to include a new party, where the LDP and Komeito could ally with a smaller party to form the new government. In this context, both the Nippon Ishin, as the second-largest opposition party, and the Progressive Democratic Party, as the third-largest party, have been proposed as potential minor partners for the ruling coalition. However, officials from both parties have expressed their refusal to join the ruling coalition, especially since they have criticized the LDP over recent financial scandals, indicating that joining the coalition would be perceived as a “betrayal” of the voters who supported them.
It is noteworthy that the Prime Minister still faces public criticism due to the significant loss suffered by the LDP in the recent elections, attributed to his failure to take adequate measures to address the financial scandals involving several senior party leaders who did not declare about four million dollars in political donations, instead channeling it into unaccountable funds. This situation led to the resignation of the former Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, from his position as leader of the LDP.
On another note, the incoming Prime Minister is also expected to face a challenging economic situation, particularly regarding the need to change the economic policies implemented by Kishida, known as “new capitalism.” These policies continue to face severe public criticism for their failure to stimulate economic activity and reduce the growing income inequality among Japanese citizens.
Japan’s economy, already burdened by a shrinking workforce and an aging population, faced additional pressure under the previous government due to rising inflation and a weak yen, which has been one of the poorest-performing currencies globally. This led the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates for the first time in 17 years in recent weeks. Consequently, there has been a “loss of confidence” among many Japanese citizens, negatively affected by rising prices of imported food and fuel, which are consequences of the import bill surge due to currency devaluation, alongside disruptions in global supply chains, culminating in a erosion of their purchasing power.
External Challenges to Ishiba’s Foreign Policy:
On the international front, Ishiba’s foreign and security policies are expected to face significant criticism at both local and international levels. He is known to be one of the “hawkish hardliners” in foreign policy and national security, particularly due to his longstanding experience in defense and military affairs which propels him toward strengthening Japan’s military capabilities. This includes plans for increased defense spending and modernizing Japan’s military infrastructure. He has also advocated for the creation of an “Asian NATO” to address the rising missile and nuclear threats from North Korea, as well as China’s growing military activity in the East and South China Seas. This is framed within his proposal for establishing an “organic link” between the existing US-led defense networks, such as the ANZUS alliance with Australia and New Zealand, and the alliances with South Korea and the Philippines.
Additionally, Ishiba stands out as one of the few voices calling for a review of the agreements concerning the stationing of American troops in Japan, expressing a desire to amend the alliance treaty with the US for greater equality with Washington. He has criticized certain aspects of the security alliance with the US, which is a cornerstone of Japan’s foreign policy, noting that Japan hosts around 55,000 US troops on its territory and bears 75% of the costs of operating US bases.
Undoubtedly, such foreign and security directives from the Japanese Prime Minister are likely to spark a “storm” of concern among many segments of the Japanese populace, who believe in the peaceful orientations emphasized by the Japanese Constitution in its Article 9. Moreover, these policies will likely provoke anxiety among most neighboring Asian countries that suffered from Japanese militarism before and during World War II. It is also anticipated that Ishiba’s security approach might strain relations with the incoming administration of President Donald Trump, who advocates for “America First” and demands that US allies, such as Japan, increase their financial contributions to cover the expenses of US military bases defending them.
Regardless, it appears that Ishiba’s new government will remain fraught with risks in the foreseeable future due to the political, economic, and security challenges it faces. The House of Representatives could pass a motion of no confidence in this government at any moment, whether Ishiba opts to establish a “minority government” or chooses to ally with a smaller party in parliament.
In light of these risks, and contrary to Ishiba’s aspirations, it is likely that the incoming Japanese Prime Minister will move away from controversial domestic and foreign orientations, including amending Article 9 of the pacifist Japanese Constitution, enhancing Japan’s military capabilities, and calling for the establishment of an “Asian NATO.” Additionally, he may be poised to step back, almost certainly, from creating “equal” relations with the US under the new administration of President Trump, focusing instead on other issues that enjoy broad public acceptance.
Nonetheless, it is entirely possible that the upcoming Japanese government, under Ishiba’s extensive political and military experience, may succeed in implementing new policies that support efforts to revitalize the economy, improve citizens’ living standards, combat corruption, as well as rebalance Japan’s alliances in the Indo-Pacific region to deter its adversaries in China and North Korea.
