International relations comprise a complex web of events and individuals, where decisions are made based on diverse interests and contrasting perspectives. A country’s power is often assessed based on the influence it exerts through tangible material assets, such as economic wealth and military capacity.
Historically, this influence has been closely associated with a strong naval presence, initially dominated by “old Europe,” later supplanted by both the United States and the Soviet Union during the bipolar world era. However, as globalization has advanced, technology and international value chains have redefined many standards.
On one hand, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of resilience in international relations. On the other hand, despite the changes brought about by globalization in today’s world, the rise of China, and significant developments in Asia, the United States remains a prominent international actor, expected to continue in this role for at least another generation.
Fluctuations Leading to the Trump Phenomenon:
In this context, it is not surprising that U.S. presidential elections receive close international scrutiny, a trend that has significantly increased with the election of the 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump.
The extraordinary interest in Trump stems from his unabashed anti-establishment stance. Equally important, if not more so, is the fact that electing an anti-establishment candidate for a second time serves as evidence of a strong spirit of change sweeping across America—an essence that predated Trump’s presidency and is expected to persist long after his term ends.
The diversity concerning the domestic role of the U.S. government has become increasingly evident from the perspective of the American public. Traditional messaging from both major parties has lost its appeal, raising numerous questions about the appropriate global role that the United States should undertake.
The end of the Cold War in the late 1980s led to a period of political turmoil in the United States. Americans elected a series of presidents representing vastly different ideologies: internationalist Republican George H.W. Bush, pragmatic left-leaning Democrat Bill Clinton, conservative Republican George W. Bush, leftist African-American Democrat Barack Obama, anti-establishment Republican Donald Trump, and traditional Democrat Joe Biden, followed again by the fiercely anti-establishment Donald Trump. These sharp and confusing fluctuations in political expression clearly indicate that American constituencies are dissatisfied and are in continuous search of identity, both domestically and in international relations.
There is no doubt that Trump, the unconventional politician recently elected, will attempt to change many things. However, he cannot be seen as the sole instigator of change; rather, his ascent to power is a clear result of the ongoing call for change that has long resonated across the United States but has not been adequately addressed. Trump’s possible election for a second term highlights how the American leadership elite have become disconnected from their constituencies, which are increasingly growing frustrated and discontented.
In a situation marked by fluctuation and instability, constituencies tend to reduce external expansion, favoring a policy of political isolationism and nationalist stances. Thus, Trump’s “America First” policy aligns perfectly with this prevailing trend in the country.
Shift Towards Transactional Diplomacy:
We are on the verge of a new phase where the United States will increasingly adopt a transactional approach that prioritizes material interests, aiming to maximize its immediate gains and minimize the risks it faces. This, in turn, means that the United States will have a limited appetite for prolonged negotiations or strategic relationships that do not align with these objectives. The country will also become more reluctant to engage in gambles or risks, especially at the military level. The focus will shift to taking calculated risks and seeking high margins of profit rather than establishing and building standards. This current U.S. perspective resembles that of a businessman, where the primary priority is private gain, and considerations regarding the public good and long-term benefits become secondary, dependent on reasonable burden-sharing.
Based on this perspective, American diplomacy from now on will prioritize balancing power rather than addressing rights violations, correcting deviations, or maintaining the public good. Diplomatic expression will be direct and resolute. It is worth noting that one of Trump’s positive traits is his willingness to engage with adversaries, which he has clearly expressed towards both Russia and China, albeit somewhat pointedly towards China, which poses the most significant economic challenge.
Trump and his team engaged with the international community even before he took office. He boldly advocated for better terms for the U.S. regarding its relationships with Panama, Greenland, Canada, and Mexico, and urged NATO allies to contribute more to security costs. Trump also indicated that the unprecedented support provided to Ukraine would be limited in the future. Additionally, his representative in the Middle East forced Netanyahu to “break the traditional Sabbath” to hold a meeting regarding a Gaza ceasefire negotiation, which ultimately led to an agreement.
A New Model for Foreign Policy:
The new change in the style of American governance reflects Trump’s personality and characteristics. However, deeper reflection on these matters is required. I distinctly remember a recent meeting with American foreign policy experts who asserted that international relations, especially those relating to great power competition, will always remain a concern. Interestingly, many experts noted a shrinkage in the role of the United States or American assistance when American interests are not directly threatened. This perspective closely aligns with Trump’s approach, especially considering his tendency to define “interests” from a short-term viewpoint. Overall, it appears that Americans—especially under Trump’s leadership—are willing to abandon America’s role and responsibility as a leader of the global order and its vision for the world in favor of becoming a traditional executive focused on quarterly and annual material results. This shift in American governance style is likely to continue for some time after Trump’s term concludes.
A Threefold Approach to Dealing with Trump:
In response to U.S. policy today, led by Trump, members of the international community should adopt a three-dimensional approach in their international relations, especially in their dealings with the United States.
Firstly, it is crucial for the international community to mimic some of Trump’s practices. This involves openly and clearly expressing the community’s objectives and stances, including what is acceptable and unacceptable to it. It is vital to avoid misunderstandings, as they may pose a much greater threat than mere differences in opinions.
Efforts should be concentrated, within established norms, on finding solutions to various issues or making progress through concrete proposals that allow for negotiation space, rather than merely reciting principles or general goals. Interaction and engagement have become exceedingly important in this era.
Finally, when presenting any proposals, it is essential to highlight the costs of these proposals and their immediate and long-term benefits for the United States and its allies. Following this tripartite approach provides clarity and emphasizes the mutual benefits of cooperation and strategic decision-making.
Key Priorities for the Trump Administration:
Several issues will stand out in the early months of Trump’s administration, such as the Russia-Ukraine war. Newly appointed officials have already presented several proposals regarding Ukraine that primarily preserve some Russian gains. However, these proposals remain inconclusive concerning NATO and European Union commitments. Therefore, Russia must approach this situation constructively and avoid the miscalculation it made in Ukraine. Trump’s quick temper may focus on perceptions just as much as on content.
Another significant issue that will impose itself in the early months of Trump’s administration is the Israeli-Palestinian issue, which will take center stage, particularly regarding the troubled ceasefire agreement in Gaza and what follows. Israelis are likely to obstruct progress on the agreement and highlight Palestinian violations to avoid taking any substantial steps in later stages. They will also attempt to exploit these violations and use them as a pretext to request more support from the Trump administration or to deter any claims for making meaningful political concessions to resolve the conflict through the establishment of a Palestinian state.
In this context, it is of paramount importance to express Arab rights and ongoing demands from the Arab side to end the occupation and establish a Palestinian state, both for their intrinsic value and for achieving regional security. When dealing with Trump, these demands must be accompanied by innovative and decisive solutions aimed at stabilizing the region and preserving a national Palestinian identity within an independent state.
On another front, Israel will continue framing the Iranian nuclear program as a threat to regional security and will use it to distract from addressing the Palestinian issue. While the Iranian nuclear program is contentious, focusing solely on this program without other considerations may have dire long-term consequences. Thus, presenting a comprehensive Arab proposal aimed at achieving security in the Middle East may be more appealing to President Trump, especially as he seeks to reshape the regional landscape. This proposal should include points such as conflict resolution, arms control, and regional stability.
China, regarded as the largest expected international competitor to the United States, will be a central focus for Trump and many leaders within his administration. The economic aspect of the relationship between the two countries could serve as a stabilizing pillar, paving the way for a new era of positive competition or possibly heightening tensions between the two nations. Misjudging matters related to the South China Sea and Taiwan may complicate the situation further. While Trump tends to prefer non-interference in Chinese-Taiwanese affairs, many U.S. national security institutions express strong concerns regarding the assertive stance of the Chinese military towards Taiwan.
Trump remains a pivotal figure in today’s American political landscape. Despite his distinctive and different style, he represents a product of the changing political dynamics in the United States rather than being the catalyst for them. It is crucial for the world to recognize the shifting tendencies and visions in the United States and their strategic implications on international relations.
