Anticipating the future has become a pressing necessity in our current era, amid rapid global changes that present interwoven challenges and threats. This underscores the need to develop flexible and adaptive strategies to achieve future objectives. In this context, the RAND Corporation published a study in 2024 discussing the future impacts of major global trends in Australia and the Indo-Pacific region over the next twenty years.
The study addresses the concept of “disruption,” which manifests through emerging challenges in areas such as economy, environment, technology, and society. This term is used to describe unexpected transformations in these fields. It indicates that economic developments, misinformation, and extreme weather events contribute to societal polarization and forced migration, leading to the erosion of human rights. The study reviews three primary types of global threats that may interconnect to form potentially catastrophic consequences: asymmetry, human risk, and distrust, while identifying their impact on Australia’s future.
Asymmetry:
Several factors constitute global threats within what the study terms “asymmetry,” summarized as follows:
- Population Disparities: The world’s population is expected to reach 9.7 billion by 2050, with significant growth concentrated in Africa and Asia. It is noteworthy that forecasts for Africa are complex, as they rely on assumptions that may not hold true; these include the expectation of making substantial improvements in secondary education and controlling population growth rates. The study argues that, with these improvements likely waning, population growth could remain high, resulting in significant demographic shifts.
The influx of migrants pressures Europe, while countries with aging populations, like those in Europe and East Asia, face challenges such as a shrinking workforce and rising healthcare burdens. For Australia, which relies on immigration to offset population declines, difficulties may arise in attracting skilled labor due to global competition. Additionally, there is a risk of brain drain as young Australians seek better opportunities abroad.
- Strategic Competition: The world is witnessing an increasing struggle between major and middle powers. Eastern Europe and the Middle East are plagued by conflicts driven by technology and information. The most significant scenario for Australia involves competition between the United States and China. China is expected to continue strengthening its military capabilities but is politically constrained from initiating direct conflict. There are speculations that tensions surrounding Taiwan could escalate, while Japan seeks to enhance its defense capabilities, despite adhering to a self-defense policy. Australia is increasingly reliant on its alliance with the United States in the Indo-Pacific region, while China and Russia collaborate to counter American dominance, with the “BRICS+” group playing a role in rebalancing global power.
- Diplomacy in a Multipolar World: With technological advancements, increasing transparency, and the influence of social media, diplomats face unprecedented challenges that intersect with traditional diplomatic efforts. This results in changes in how crises are managed and international relations are conducted, as numerous sources and discussions now proliferate on social media, diminishing the diplomat’s role as the sole information provider. Australia encounters challenges in diplomatically managing its stance toward China, as it aims to maintain trade and economic relations while addressing Chinese hostility toward its regional allies, leading to mixed messages.
- Future Challenges and Defensive Resilience: Australia considers anticipated changes in global alliances and strategically influential regions up to 2045. It is predicted that the locus of future conflicts may shift to new areas outside the Indo-Pacific, necessitating flexible defense strategies aligned with the requirements of a multipolar global system. These topics highlight the need to enhance Australia’s security and defense capabilities, alongside investing in unconventional strategies to tackle the rising threats in the Indo-Pacific while supporting regional alliances to mitigate emerging risks.
Human Risk:
A series of factors represent global threats categorized under “human risk” as identified by the study, which are summarized as follows:
- Emerging Technologies and Human Risk: In the context of modern technologies, human risk refers to potential threats and negative impacts arising from the applications or misuse of leading-edge and emerging technologies. As technological development accelerates—especially in areas like artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and geoengineering—concerns grow about these technologies’ dangerous effects on societies and the environment. The study examines significant transformations in digital technologies that have led to the rise of what are known as leading-edge technologies, which heavily benefit from digitization and rely on data.
Leading-edge technologies include digital technologies (such as the metaverse, Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum computing), physical technologies (like self-driving cars, 3D printing, nanotechnology, robotics, drones, electric vehicles, wind power, and solar cells), and biological technologies (such as bioprinting organs, genetic engineering, and human enhancement).
These technologies aim to address global issues such as climate change, underscoring the urgent need for regulating their use to ensure optimal benefits while minimizing negative impacts. A critical aspect here is the accessibility of these technologies, democratizing them and allowing individuals and small businesses to benefit.
Despite these advantages, challenges arise from the potential misuse by irresponsible or harmful actors, alongside the increasing dependence on data in the field of artificial intelligence, where the success of AI hinges on the quality and recency of data, rendering this technology susceptible to biases and negative influences in the data utilized, which may exacerbate inequality and racial discrimination. Additionally, alongside concerns about artificial intelligence, cyber threats also comprise a facet of human risk, as digital tools and cyber-attacks can harm essential infrastructure such as power grids and financial systems. Artificial intelligence can facilitate cyber-attacks by providing advanced means to analyze and exploit vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the likelihood of widespread cyber conflicts.
- Geoengineering and Climate Change: Australia is already facing the effects of global warming, with the government reporting increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, such as fires and floods, primarily associated with human-induced global warming. Climate change issues are viewed as genuine security threats requiring an integrated response from both military and civilian entities.
The study suggests that climate change heightens the likelihood of conflict within countries struggling with economic disparities and may lead to “climate wars” in the future as environmental solutions, like geoengineering, become contested. Though the likelihood of conflict occurring in Australia remains low, climate change is expected to undermine Australia’s national security before 2050 by disrupting vital infrastructure and increasing political instability in neighboring areas, especially in the Pacific Islands. Therefore, the Australian Defence Forces need to focus on such climate scenarios that could induce humanitarian disasters or escalate conflicts.
- Defense Considerations: Australia’s ability to respond to natural disasters and adapt to evolving threats, such as hybrid attacks or failures of crucial infrastructure, reflects its national resilience capabilities. This requires a combination of civil preparedness and military capacity. Australia needs to enhance its defense and civil capabilities to deal with natural disasters or attacks on vital infrastructure. This capacity encompasses collaboration between civil defense and the Australian armed forces.
- Economic Adaptation: Australia faces economic challenges that need addressing to cover costs associated with climate changes and sustainable development. Given Australia’s significant reliance on China as a key economic partner, any deterioration in the Chinese economy could negatively impact Australia. Furthermore, with India poised to become a leading economic power in the near future, the study posits that Australia must prepare for these changes.
Distrust:
The study also explores the risks and challenges confronting Australia’s future in light of the increasing technology proliferation and geopolitical developments, focusing on several key points related to cybersecurity, the spread of misinformation, changes in global governance models, and the impact of these factors on Australian democracy.
- Cybersecurity and Malicious Actors: There is a growing concern regarding the impact of malicious actors, whether state or non-state, on cybersecurity, as people increasingly rely on the internet and smart technology, exposing them to risks of personal data and financial theft. This can lead to more sophisticated cyber-attacks, such as phishing and malware, with threats directed at vital infrastructure, particularly supported by nations like China and Russia. Additionally, advancements in artificial intelligence will further enhance malicious actors’ capabilities in psychological and mass manipulation, increasing future security challenges.
- Misinformation and Its Societal Effects: The widespread dissemination of false information through social media, which can cause social polarization and internal tensions, may weaken the state’s capacity to respond to crises. Consequently, the rapid spread of misinformation poses a threat to national security, making it challenging to distinguish between true and false information, thus undermining public trust in institutions.
- Changes in Global Governance Models: The study indicates a global decline of liberalism, coinciding with a growing trend toward authoritarian systems. Countries like China challenge the traditional model of liberal democracy, proposing alternative governance models, notably exemplified by China’s “Global Civilization” initiative, which views governance systems as extensions of cultural identity, thereby challenging the rule-based international order. With the number of liberal democracies decreasing, Australia may need to adopt a more flexible approach in its dealings with other nations.
- Challenges to Australian Democracy: Indicators suggest that Australian democracy, despite its current strength, is not immune to these challenges. The study highlights the issue of the “truth battle” as a primary challenge, as threats proliferate that may undermine trust in democratic institutions. Economic anxiety, institutional dysfunction, and class division are among the factors affecting trust in these institutions, which could influence the resilience of Australian democracy.
Overall, after discussing the multiple challenges facing Australia over the next two decades, the study calls for a comprehensive review of cybersecurity and defense strategies, along with enhancing critical thinking capabilities to address future challenges and ensure the continuity of democratic values.
Source:
Joanne Nicholson & Peter Dortmans, “A Foresight Study Examining the Implications of Global Trends over the Next 20 Years,” RAND Corporation, Australia, 2024.
