The Global Geopolitical Repercussions of Trump’s Tariffs

Much of the analysis surrounding the tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump has focused on their economic and trade implications for various countries, whether they are adversaries or allies. However, anyone examining the details of international reactions will realize that the political repercussions of these tariffs are likely to have a strategic impact on international balances and regional calculations.

Initial indicators suggest that the shock of the tariffs will radically reshape the international landscape, affecting not only the “rules-based order” that has prevailed since the end of World War II under U.S. leadership but also triggering changes in political equations that have remained stable for approximately two hundred years. This includes concepts like the “Monroe Doctrine,” which established U.S. relations with Europe as well as the unique relations between Washington and the nations of the Americas. Furthermore, these new tariffs are prompting many international and regional powers to reposition themselves politically and militarily. The political changes stemming from Trump’s tariffs can be summarized in ten key equations as follows:

1. U.S.-European Separation:

In the last decade, numerous European voices have emerged advocating for strategic independence from the United States. These calls have manifested in various political, economic, and military forms, including proposals for a unified European army, the formation of a joint European defense force (Sky Shield), and bilateral defense agreements independent of Washington. Europe is divided between two camps: one that supports maintaining strategic relations with the U.S. and another, led by France, that calls for strategic independence from U.S. policies. Over the past decade, the first camp prevailed, believing that the European stability achieved over 80 years has been based on a close partnership with the U.S. Former Democratic President Joe Biden’s policies strengthened U.S.-European ties through what he termed a “values alliance.”

However, since Trump’s return to the White House on January 20, 2025, and his announcement to impose tariffs on EU nations, voices from both camps in Europe and NATO have called for a rapid push towards strategic independence from Washington. The tariffs on European imports such as steel, iron, and automobiles have coincided with U.S. demands for increased defense spending by European NATO members. This has been compounded by the White House’s mockery of European democracy and endorsements from Trump-aligned figures like Elon Musk for far-right parties in Europe.

Consequently, European countries began a series of measures leading to political and military separation from the U.S., which include:

The White Paper: This refers to a European defense plan developed independently of the U.S., aiming to enhance Europe’s self-arming capabilities, simplify defense decision-making processes, produce weapons within the EU, and favor European preferences in public procurement for strategic defense-related sectors and technologies.

Rearmament of Europe: Allocating 800 billion euros to support European armies through legislation that allows raising the public debt ceiling for EU countries to over 3% for the first time in its history. This aims to free billions for weapon and ammunition purchases. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has advocated a plan known as “Rearming Europe,” fundamentally reflecting a security separation from Washington.

Return to Large Armies: The presence of thousands of American soldiers in Europe since WWII symbolized friendship and unity of goals. However, the recent tariffs have created a deep political rift, prompting Trump’s administration to propose the withdrawal of 10,000 American troops from Eastern Europe. This has revived discussions in Europe regarding conscription and large armies, signaling the end of European dependency and the “one trench” policy that had previously united Europeans with around 100,000 American troops stationed on European soil.

2. European-Chinese Closer Ties:

The upcoming European-Chinese summit was initially scheduled to take place in Brussels following the last meeting in Beijing. However, in a break from protocol and in pursuit of deeper European coordination with China, EU leaders agreed to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping for the next summit in Beijing as well, as reported by the “South China Morning Post.” The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, will attend this summit. This shift towards China coincides with German newspaper “Handelsblatt” reporting that China and the EU have initiated talks aimed at lifting tariffs imposed on electric cars imported from Beijing.

The previous Biden administration struggled to align Europe with the U.S. in its strategic competition with China. Europe remained loyal to the U.S. when it halted Chinese investments in strategic European sectors, such as the ban on Huawei’s involvement in 5G technology. Europe fully supported the U.S. agenda against China on issues related to the South China Sea, Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong.

However, the tariffs imposed by Trump on both China and the EU have led many European voices to advocate for coordination and rapprochement with Beijing, seeking Europe’s own interests. This call was echoed by President Xi when he urged for European-Chinese cooperation against U.S. tariffs. This strategic shift is unlikely to favor the U.S., which had previously relied on European support for its disputes with China, such as German warships accompanying U.S. vessels in the South China Sea to support the American concept of freedom of navigation. Following the imposition of tariffs on German exports, calls are growing to enhance German-Chinese cooperation, a key component of the German prosperity triangle that also involves cheap Russian gas and reliance on American military protection.

3. British Repositioning:

For eight decades, since WWII, Britain and the U.S. have functioned as “one nation” in two states, fighting together in various political and military battles, including the recent 20-year global war on terror alongside efforts against Russia and China. Yet, the tariffs imposed on Britain forced it to reassess its relationship with the U.S. for the first time in decades, aligning its positions and policies closer to Europe than to Washington. London shares the perspective of Berlin, Paris, and the European Commission regarding the dangers of American tariffs. Although British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is seeking dialogue with Trump regarding the tariffs, Britain appears to be gravitating towards Europe. As agreement grows between London and Brussels over Ukraine and European security, tensions between Washington and London deepen, driving the British government to coordinate with its European neighbors, especially regarding the armament of Ukraine and nuclear partnerships with France to provide a European nuclear security umbrella, marking a significant historical and strategic shift in U.S.-British relations.

4. Deterioration of the “Five Eyes”:

The “Five Eyes” intelligence alliance has long been a backbone of the Anglo-Saxon world, facilitating precise intelligence sharing among the U.S., Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. However, the tariffs disrupted trust among these five nations, as Trump imposed tariffs on the four without exception. Even after reducing the tariffs to 10% and awaiting negotiations between Washington and the four other nations in the alliance, the reactions were angry, with governments shocked that their closest ally levied tariffs against them. This could undermine their close ties with the U.S. and impact Washington’s dominance and operations in the strategic and intelligence circles in which Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand have traditionally cooperated.

5. Weakening “AUKUS”:

Trust and joint action were the foundations for establishing the AUKUS military alliance in September 2021 between the United States, the United Kingdom, and Australia. This trust led Australia to cancel a $50 billion submarine deal with France and instead sign a new agreement with the U.S. and Britain to acquire nuclear-powered submarines. In addition, Australia committed to multi-billion-dollar deals for “Tomahawk” missiles and the construction of U.S. military bases on its territory. In support of the U.S.-British-Australian alliance, Canberra has increased its military budget over the past three years to more than $40 billion annually.

However, the imposition of tariffs on partners within the AUKUS alliance has undermined trust and cooperation. Both Australia and Britain are now scrambling to protect their exports to the United States, which has even imposed tariffs on remote and uninhabited Australian territories—moves that further strain the spirit of collaboration the alliance was built upon.

6. Doubts about the U.S. Security Umbrella in Asia:

The U.S. security umbrella, both traditional and nuclear, has underpinned U.S.-Asian relations, bolstering trade and economic cooperation between the U.S. and Asian countries. Nonetheless, the tariffs on Japan and South Korea have compelled them to reassess their positions, given that both nations had assumed they were exempt from U.S. tariffs due to their significant investments in the U.S. economy, with Japan recently committing to invest approximately $1 trillion in American projects.

Similar damage has occurred in U.S. relations with Vietnam, the Philippines, and Taiwan after Trump imposed tariffs reaching 47% on Vietnam, a country Biden regarded as a key U.S. strategic ally on China’s doorstep following his visit there in September 2024. Moreover, the expansion of U.S. access to nine military bases in the Philippines since April 2024 was viewed in Washington as a significant move toward militarily encircling China. However, all of this is now in question due to the tariffs.

7. Closer Chinese-Japanese Ties:

Since the Chinese Communist Revolution in 1949, Japanese-Chinese disagreements have increased. The mutual defense cooperation pact between Tokyo and Washington, which took effect in 1960, exacerbated these tensions. China views U.S. military presence in Japan as directed exclusively against it and believes that U.S. military involvement is a key factor in Sino-Japanese conflicts. However, with the tariffs that both Japan and China have jointly demanded, and as U.S.-Japanese relations face new scrutiny due to the tariffs, Beijing and Tokyo may find a better opportunity for cooperation, potentially easing disputes over Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands, and possibly leading to a full normalization of relations and reducing Japanese reliance on the U.S.

8. Repositioning of Global South Countries:

Many African and Asian nations that previously benefitted from economic advantages or aid from the U.S. in exchange for supporting Western and American agendas in the UN Security Council and General Assembly now see an opportunity to change their political alignment from the Western camp, led by Washington, toward China and possibly Russia. This marks the largest shift for “Global South” countries that had hoped to rectify their relations with Washington over the past two decades.

9. Loss of the “Backyard”:

South American countries are among the most vocal advocates for political and economic cooperation with China and Russia. These nations have been watching the U.S. disputes with both Canada and Mexico while noting tariffs applied to all South American countries, including those friendly to Washington like Brazil, Argentina, and Peru. This indicates a historic shift in the stances of these nations, which had previously maintained exclusive relations with the U.S. under the Monroe Doctrine that prevented other nations from interfering in the affairs of the Americas, viewing them as Washington’s exclusive spheres of influence. Since 2019, China has become the primary trading partner for Latin American countries, and Russia’s relationships with Cuba, Venezuela, Brazil, and Mexico will be at the expense of Washington’s ties in its own backyard.

10. A Multipolar World:

As a result of all these geopolitical shifts in the stances of major, medium, and small nations, the tariffs imposed by President Trump could hasten the transition toward a new multipolar world, moving away from the unipolar policy that has dominated the globe since the dissolution of the former Soviet Union in 1991.