The Future of the Displacement Plan in Gaza

The call by U.S. President Donald Trump to transform the Gaza Strip into a “Gaza Riviera” shocked both his allies and opponents alike. This marks the first time a superpower has openly announced support for “forced displacement” in such a crude manner. Excluding the welcome from the far-right in Israel, the overall international response has been one of condemnation or rejection.

First: The General Background of the Issue:

It can be argued that the demographic imbalance in favor of Palestinians in the entirety of historical Palestine is the central motivation behind this project. Israel — especially its political right — views the optimal solution to the issue not in a two-state solution, which Trump has not mentioned during his presidency, his electoral campaigns, or at present, nor in a one-state solution but rather in the forced and voluntary displacement of Palestinians. The problem is expected to escalate in the future due to the higher population growth rate among Palestinians compared to Jews, which exacerbates the demographic imbalance in favor of Palestinians, complicating the issue further.

Second: Will There Be Displacement or Not?

There are ten indicators suggesting the continuation of efforts to implement displacement in one form or another (whether through war or peace):

1. The weak practical rejection from Arab countries and the failure to tie this rejection to clear and definite actions.
2. The unethical nature of the U.S. President and his indifference to any ethical, international, or humanitarian values.
3. The harsh economic situation in Gaza (due to the blockade before and during the current crisis, as well as the limited alternative internal resources for external aid and the procrastination in providing support).
4. Disappointment in the future among the Palestinian community, which fosters public frustration regarding the lack of a desired solution, leading to increased pressure for migration.
5. The capacity of the other party (America, Europe, and Arab oil countries) to offer financial inducements for accepting displacement through providing facilities, job opportunities, and media campaigns aimed at instilling fear about the future.
6. Poor management by the Palestinian Authority, due to corruption and the deduction of salaries from employees, as well as halting salaries for prisoners and martyrs’ families, increasing despair within the population.
7. Israeli anxiety regarding the future of the demographic balance in historical Palestine makes them more determined to pursue either absolute or relative displacement.
8. The likelihood of securing $53 billion for reconstruction (according to estimates from the Arab summit based on the Egyptian plan) is low, given the experience of international support for Palestine in various settlement conferences, most of which have yielded insufficient commitments.
9. The potential for internal Palestinian conflict between the security coordination authority and resistance forces, a scenario that has occurred before, heightening the urgency to flee from “the battlefields.”
10. The potential extension of the reconstruction phase for longer than expected, due to lack of funds or the conditionality of support on harsh political terms.

Conversely, there are indicators that could hinder the displacement process:

1. The initial rejection of displacement from most countries and international organizations, with no entity other than Israel and the U.S. explicitly supporting the notion.
2. Public concern in the West regarding the political burdens of displacement (such as increased chances of violence in the countries receiving migrants or the rise of fascism, particularly in Europe), as well as economic concerns (especially where there are constraining variables like unemployment and spending), and social constraints (value conflicts). Surveys indicate a clear increase in the rejection of accepting migrants in Europe and the U.S.
3. Concerns from some Arab countries about the repercussions of the decision (as discussed in the recent Cairo summit), especially if displacement occurs to neighboring Arab countries like Jordan, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and even Gulf states. Studies indicate that displacement to these neighboring countries will account for the highest percentage of forced displacements, reinforcing rejection.
4. The presence of a strong and active rejection sector within the Palestinian community and organizations, combined with fears that the success of displacement in Gaza could encourage similar actions in the West Bank in the future, enhancing current rejection.
5. The difficulty in finding countries willing to accept large numbers, as there is a difference between accepting individual cases and millions of people.
6. The tightening of restrictions on UNRWA raises concerns among those who agree to migration because the care of migrants is not guaranteed; they may receive support for a while and then be abandoned.
7. Internal instability in Israel could hinder efforts to implement the project, as Israel ranks 173rd out of 193 countries in terms of political stability, which entails the possibility of shifts in policies or distractions from internal conflicts.
8. Increasing laxity in the U.S. administration’s commitment to the project, noted in direct negotiations between the U.S. and Hamas. Additionally, Trump’s later statements indicate that the project is not mandatory, as his envoy to the Middle East stated literally, “the plan is not for evacuation but for improving living conditions, and does not mean forced displacement, as that would lead to more extremism.”
9. The international perception of Palestinians as violent and prone to creating instability makes their welcome less enticing.
10. Displacement from Gaza does not resolve Israel’s long-term demographic and security issues; while it may alleviate the demographic imbalance, it does not solve it, especially in the long term—if all of Gaza’s residents were to emigrate, there would still be 5.5 million in the West Bank and in the territories of 1948, and the current demographic imbalance is expected to return within approximately 10-15 years.
11. There is a relative concern in American society that Trump’s plan may open the door to a greater U.S. entanglement in the Middle East, amid Trump’s non-interventionist military stance and the failures of previous interventions. Trump tends to favor economic tools over military ones, but economic tools can still involve significant amounts (the figure of $53 billion).
12. Egyptian interests in two aspects: displacement could reattach the Palestinian issue to Egyptian affairs, which the Egyptian government does not want, and supporting the reconstruction project offers Egypt an opportunity to profit from this initiative through the extensive involvement of its companies, whereas displacement would not yield any significant benefits for Egypt.

Without delving into the exhausting details of quantitative calculations to weigh the indicators—for and against—and the mutual impact of those signals both negatively and positively, and calculating their interconnectedness as well as measuring the acceleration of each and the differences in acceleration, the result fluctuated between three scenarios to determine which was more likely:

1. Forced Displacement: 29%
2. A Combination of Forced and Voluntary Displacement: 12%
3. Failure of the Forced Displacement Project with Continued Voluntary Displacement: 59%.

Third: The International Environment and Major Trends in Forced Displacement Models:

According to specialized references on forced migrations due to wars and conflicts as well as natural disasters, the number of forcibly displaced individuals doubled between 2014 and 2023 from 59.5 million to 117.3 million, with an increase of about 2.7 million in 2024. However, over 65% of the displaced were for political reasons, primarily international and internal wars. Various studies indicate that 73% of forcibly displaced individuals came from five countries: Afghanistan, Syria, Ukraine, Venezuela, and South Sudan. The most receiving countries for these displaced individuals are Iran, Turkey, Colombia, Germany, and Pakistan. Notably, 69% of the forcibly displaced went to neighboring countries, while the more concerning factor is that 75% of the countries receiving these displaced individuals are poor or middle-income countries. This highlights the need to be aware of the following: a. Promises of a better life in receiving countries are misleading given the economic conditions in those countries. b. 27% of the displaced went to non-neighboring countries but are within the same region and have a comparable economic level. c. Only 4% went to distant countries with good economic standards.

This means that the international data on the ground does not support Trump’s illusions of creating a Riviera in the abandoned area or of better conditions in the new destination; it does not exceed 4%.

Fourth: What is Required:

1. Immediate Lifting of the Blockade on Gaza: This is the strongest factor that Arab countries can leverage to prevent forced or even voluntary displacement. I believe Arab nations should proceed with a request to the UN Security Council to lift the blockade on the Gaza Strip based on Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which would heighten pressure on Israel and pave the way for entering the second phase of a ceasefire, while also clarifying the U.S. stance regarding its insistence on forced displacement or if this is merely a negotiating position.
2. Rapid Arab Efforts to Raise Funds: Particularly for living and medical needs, as an initial step to enhance the resilience of the population in the sector.

3. International Advocacy for Human Rights: Arab countries and international organizations should intensify their advocacy for the rights of Palestinians and emphasize the importance of humanitarian aid being provided without conditions. Ensuring that all humanitarian actions are taken seriously and with adherence to international laws will help to alleviate the suffering in Gaza and counteract any plans for forced displacement.
4. Comprehensive Economic Support Initiatives: There should be a focus on economic initiatives aimed at rebuilding Gaza’s economy and infrastructure. This includes investing in job creation, education, healthcare, and sustainable development projects that can provide a viable future for the people of Gaza.
5. Promoting Unity Among Palestinian Factions: To effectively address the challenges of displacement and occupation, Palestinian factions must work toward greater unity and collaboration. Solidarity within the Palestinian community will strengthen their position in negotiations and resistance against any plans that threaten their rights.
6. Enhanced Diplomatic Engagement: Arab nations must engage in active diplomacy with global powers and international organizations to garner support for the Palestinian cause. This includes leveraging platforms like the UN to highlight the injustices faced by Palestinians and to rally support for their rights.
7. Raising Awareness Globally: There is a need for increased awareness campaigns in the global community regarding the realities of Palestinian life under occupation and the implications of displacement plans. Using media, cultural exchanges, and educational programs can help shift public opinion and foster international solidarity.
8. Monitoring and Reporting: Establishing mechanisms to monitor and report human rights violations is crucial. This will hold accountable those responsible for displacement and related injustices while pushing international actors to uphold their obligations to protect civilian populations.
9. Psychosocial Support for Displaced Families: As displacement often leads to trauma, it is essential to offer psychosocial support to displaced and at-risk families in both Gaza and any potential receiving countries. This can help them cope with the challenges of displacement and preserve their cultural identity.
10. Long-Term Solutions for Refugees: Beyond immediate humanitarian needs, it is important to plan for long-term solutions for Palestinian refugees, ensuring they have access to their rights, including the right of return and property restitution, as recognized by international law.

Conclusion

Navigating the complexities of displacement in Gaza requires a multifaceted approach that prioritizes the dignity, rights, and future of the Palestinian people. Through collective regional efforts, international advocacy, and strategic initiatives for economic and social development, the aim should be to foster an environment that upholds justice and peace, rather than violence and forced migration. Only through a commitment to dialogue and respect for the human rights of all individuals can a just resolution to the ongoing crisis be achieved.