The Future of French Military Exports After the Downing of Rafale Fighters in India

On May 7, 2025, reports emerged of the downing of French-made Rafale fighter jets belonging to the Indian Air Force during a military operation called Sindoor. Social media erupted with videos purportedly showing the wreckage of the warplanes within Indian territory, close to the Pakistani border. One video showed wreckage believed to be from an M88 engine, used in the Rafale, and unexploded MICA missiles. Other videos showed wreckage of other unidentified aircraft. Despite India’s denial of Pakistan’s claims of downing five aircraft, including three Rafales, a French source confirmed the downing of at least one Rafale. This incident sparked widespread debate about the credibility of the information circulating and marked a turning point in the aerial conflict between the two countries, raising questions about the Rafale’s effectiveness against the fighter jets possessed by the Pakistani forces.

Widespread Shock

The Rafale’s downing in the India-Pakistan conflict triggered broad reactions within France:

Media Shock at the Rafale’s Downing: News of the Rafale’s downing sent shockwaves through France, especially as the Rafale is considered a symbol of national pride and French technological superiority. It was a severe setback for the aircraft’s reputation, which entered service in 2002 and had not recorded any losses in aerial combat since then. Immediately after news of the incident circulated, the French media became preoccupied with covering it extensively, such as Le Monde newspaper, which in one of its reports considered the loss of a fighter jet like the Rafale to be a major embarrassment to the image of the French aircraft. The newspaper also linked the incident to the development of Pakistani air power, explaining that Pakistan’s purchase of Chinese Chengdu J-10C aircraft in 2022 was clearly aimed at countering India’s Rafale procurement program, thus putting the French aircraft’s effectiveness in question against advanced Chinese technology.

The French Government’s Cautious Stance: The French government adopted a cautious approach to the crisis. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot called for calm and restraint between India and Pakistan, stressing the importance of avoiding military escalation between the two nuclear powers. Despite media and political pressure to provide clarifications, the government refrained from officially confirming details of the incident. This policy drew criticism from some opposition parties, who believed the government was intentionally concealing information to protect the aircraft’s reputation. In contrast, the government justified its position by stating that it would ask the Indian side to inform it of the details of the incident to follow it up accurately and confirm its support for its Indian ally in confronting terrorist organizations. On the other hand, there were questions from some deputies in the French Parliament about the policy of exporting French weapons, especially in light of the escalating risks surrounding conflict zones such as South Asia.

Attempts to Deny Any Technical Problems with Rafale Fighters: The opinions of French military experts on the event varied. Some believed that the downing of a fighter jet during a battle was expected in the context of high-intensity wars. Some analysts pointed out that the Rafale was not used strategically correctly, as it was deployed in a complex defensive zone without providing sufficient support from anti-aircraft defense systems. Another group of experts believes that the aircraft’s downing may not be related to a technical weakness but may have resulted from a tactical error or a misjudgment of the combat environment. In this context, strategic experts stressed that the Rafale aircraft itself had not lost its efficiency but that the circumstances surrounding the mission were not suitable. An analyst explained to Marianne magazine in a report published on May 8, 2025, that including the Rafale in an offensive operation in an area equipped with Chinese-made air defense systems is an imprudent adventure. However, some former French military personnel stressed the need to enhance combat training for Rafale pilots outside France, especially in light of combat scenarios that include advanced Chinese aircraft.

Recalling the Controversy Surrounding the 2016 Sale of Aircraft to India: News of the Rafale’s downing in the India-Pakistan conflict sparked controversy in France, in which the circumstances of the sale of 36 Rafale aircraft to India in 2016 for 7.8 billion euros and the controversy that accompanied it were recalled. In July 2021, a judicial investigation was opened regarding the deal after a complaint from the “Sherpa” organization about suspicions of corruption related to secret commissions paid to figures close to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Mediapart website played a prominent role in uncovering the case, which was dubbed the Rafale Papers. The website also raised questions about the role of then-Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and former French President François Hollande, who denied any conflict of interest despite the relationship between his partner Julie Gayet and the Indian company Reliance. The French government found itself in an embarrassing position amid internal political pressures at the time.

Increasing Criticism of Dassault: Dassault, the manufacturer of the Rafale, faced a series of criticisms after a French intelligence source confirmed to CNN the downing of a Rafale in the conflict between India and Pakistan, which could constitute the Rafale’s first combat loss since it entered service in 2002. These criticisms stem from the rhetoric that Dassault relied on to market the Rafale, which was based on the premise that the Rafale has the definite ability to confront modern combat systems. It is believed that the aircraft that was shot down was hit by a PL-15E missile launched by a Chinese Chengdu J-10 aircraft belonging to the Pakistani Air Force. This missile has active radar guidance and support from Saab 2000 Erieye early warning aircraft, allowing it to overcome the SPECTRA defense system in the Rafale.

French Skepticism of the Pakistani Narrative: Statements made by the Pakistani army about the downing of three Indian Rafale aircraft sparked widespread controversy in French circles, as many experts and analysts considered these claims exaggerated and unreliable. While the Pakistani army spokesman confirmed that Pakistani air defenses shot down three Rafale aircraft during the aerial confrontation, official French sources denied these claims, considering that the evidence presented by the Pakistani side was insufficient and not based on accurate investigations.

On the other hand, French experts pointed out that the photos that some Pakistani sources published on social media, which claimed to be of Rafale aircraft wreckage, were in fact of pieces from other aircraft of unconfirmed identity, or even photos fabricated using photo editing programs. Investigative reports confirmed that some of the circulating photos dated back to previous incidents that occurred elsewhere, which reinforces the hypothesis that the Pakistani narrative may be part of an information war aimed at discrediting the French aircraft. The French press also called for caution in dealing with information from both the Pakistani and Indian sides, stressing that the absence of conclusive evidence makes it difficult to issue a final verdict.

Potential Repercussions

The downing of the Rafale will pose a difficult test for the standing of French military exports globally amid escalating competition, as follows:

1. Reduced Confidence in the Rafale’s Effectiveness: The downing of the Rafale in the India-Pakistan conflict raised serious questions about the effectiveness of this advanced aircraft, which was considered one of the most prominent products of the French military industries. The Rafale is a multi-role fighter that was promoted as being able to excel in all combat environments. However, the loss against aircraft relying on Chinese technology, such as the J-10C, raised questions about the suitability of this aircraft for modern aerial combat. The biggest impact of this incident may be on countries that were considering purchasing the Rafale, as some may begin to reassess their plans to modernize their air forces and turn to alternative options such as the American F-35 or the Chinese J-20 fighters.

Despite this, many French analysts continue to emphasize that the downing of one fighter jet does not necessarily mean technological failure, but may be related to complex tactical circumstances. It seems that the incident has clearly affected the global market’s confidence in this aircraft, which calls for French efforts to restore the Rafale’s reputation globally.

Impact on Future Rafale Sales Deals: Rafale sales deals are among the biggest commercial successes for the French company Dassault. The value of the recently signed contract, on April 28, 2025, with India alone, is 6.5 billion euros for the purchase of 26 Rafale aircraft. But with the downing of the aircraft in the conflict with Pakistan, questions began to increase about the sustainability of this success. While France is seeking to enhance the sales of the aircraft to countries such as Greece and Croatia, the incident may lead these countries to hesitate to complete the contracts. Sales talks with Indonesia, which had expressed interest in obtaining a group of Rafale aircraft, are expected to be affected, especially if Pakistan’s claims regarding the downing of three Rafale aircraft are confirmed.

Despite French efforts to reassure potential customers that the incident was exceptional, the aircraft’s reputation as one of the best fighters in the world has taken a strong blow. Some analysts believe that countries such as India, which rely heavily on the aircraft in its air formation, may demand more technical and training support to ensure that pilots are ready to deal with complex combat scenarios.

Threat to Dassault Aviation’s Reputation as a Weapons Manufacturer: The downing of Rafale aircraft in the India-Pakistan conflict shed light on the weaknesses of the aircraft, which has long been considered a symbol of French technological superiority. Some experts believe that the incident shows that the era of overall air superiority has passed and that maintaining local air superiority has become the most prominent challenge. The United States alone can achieve this superiority thanks to its comprehensive fleet of stealth aircraft. In contrast, Dassault Aviation’s strategy, which is based on the concept of a “multi-role aircraft,” has been criticized, as the incident revealed shortcomings in the SPECTRA electronic warfare system against the Chinese PL-15E long-range missiles. The incident also weakened French and European ambitions to achieve technological independence in the field of military aviation, which strengthens reliance on more advanced American systems.

Difficulty in Dismantling French-Indian Military Cooperation: Military cooperation between France and India is a cornerstone of the strategic partnership between the two countries, as the deal to purchase 36 Rafale aircraft was concluded in 2016 for 7.8 billion euros, followed by a new deal in April 2025 to purchase 26 Rafale M naval aircraft for 6.5 billion euros. Despite the incident of the Rafale’s downing in the India-Pakistan conflict, India will continue to invest in the aircraft to enhance its air capabilities. India is the first foreign country to use the naval version of the Rafale, reflecting mutual trust despite the setback. This latest deal is considered a new opportunity for the Rafale M in global markets, as several countries have begun to adopt aircraft carriers with STOBAR technology, which may make the Rafale M a better option than its American competitor, the F-18 Hornet. Despite the Rafale’s previous successes in operations in Afghanistan, Mali, and Syria, its downing in the India-Pakistan conflict may change the image significantly.

Pressure on French Defense Policy: In light of this incident, France may face great pressure to reassess its defense strategies, especially with regard to the export of weapons to countries involved in ongoing conflicts. Until recently, the Rafale was considered one of the most efficient aircraft in the world, but its downing in an air battle raised questions about France’s ability to provide highly reliable defense equipment. This incident may also lead to the adoption of a more cautious policy in future contracts by buyers, where French defense companies will be asked to prove the effectiveness of their products in real combat conditions before signing any new agreements.

Impact on the Economic Situation of Fighter Manufacturers: The downing of Rafale aircraft in the India-Pakistan conflict had clear economic effects on Dassault. Following the incident, Dassault Aviation shares recorded a decline of more than 7% in the European stock market, as the share value fell to 292 euros on May 12, 2025 (after it was 324 euros on May 7, 2025). In contrast, Chengdu Aircraft Corporation, the manufacturer of the Chinese J-10C aircraft, saw a sharp rise in its shares by 40% within a few days, driven by news of the aircraft’s success in the air battle and its downing of Indian aircraft, including the Rafale. Financial reports from Bloomberg indicated that this increase reflects the increasing importance of the Chinese aircraft in global markets. This disparity reflects how the performance of aircraft in battles can directly affect the shares of manufacturing companies.

In conclusion, the incident of the Rafale’s downing in the India-Pakistan conflict has resulted in major challenges that the French military will face globally in the coming phase. With increasing competition with Chinese and American aircraft, Dassault will find itself facing a difficult task to regain international confidence. In addition, the financial losses resulting from the decline in the value of shares will put additional pressure on the company, and addressing these repercussions requires new strategies that ensure the improvement of the Rafale’s combat performance and provide sufficient guarantees to the countries that rely on it to enhance its air capabilities.