Before the Election
Before coming to power after winning the legislative elections held on July 4, 2024, Keir Starmer announced in his electoral program that his foreign policy would aim to rebuild European relations and establish European-British alliances, allowing Britain to lead the European continent once again. On July 8, just four days after the elections, the new Foreign Minister, David Lammy, made a brief visit to Germany, Poland, and Sweden, reflecting the Labour government’s determination to revive British-European relations in a manner that serves British interests.
Supporting Factors
The path towards potential rapprochement in British-European relations under the Labour government is influenced by several key factors:
Potential Changes in US Policy if Trump Wins:
In light of the potential re-election of Donald Trump to the White House, predicting the behavior of the United States as a superpower becomes challenging, making it risky to rely on the US as a traditional international ally. Additionally, the recent tendency of US policy towards economic protectionism and non-engagement implies that implementing free trade agreements and market freedom could face challenges in the future. Conversely, the better political alternative would be to strengthen British-European relations, maintaining and investing in Britain’s regional role in Europe as a necessary step to preserve its international image as a reliable ally, even if the US role diminishes.
Continuing Russian-Ukrainian War:
This war poses a direct threat to regional security and peace, presenting Britain with an opportunity to demonstrate leadership of the European continent independently from the EU as an institutional framework. Supporting Ukraine and confronting the Russian threat have been common grounds for Britain and European countries, driving European alignment that Britain seeks to lead. This likely explains David Lammy’s choice of Germany, Poland, and Sweden for his first official visits as Foreign Minister; these three countries are crucial in sustaining Kyiv’s ability to resist Russia. Meanwhile, British Defense Minister John Healey met with Ukrainian President Zelensky and his counterpart Rustem Umerov during his visit to participate in the celebration of Ukrainian Navy Day, pledging to send more artillery weapons, a quarter of a million rounds, and about 100 precision Brimstone missiles over the next hundred days. Additionally, Healey was clear in affirming that the change of government in Britain does not mean a change in its stance on the Ukrainian war; “Britain is united in supporting Ukraine.”
British Prime Minister and Foreign Minister’s Orientations:
Both Prime Minister Starmer and Foreign Minister David Lammy have repeatedly emphasized that the regional and international contexts represent a critical geopolitical stage, distinguishing the differences among democratic countries from those between democratic and authoritarian states represented by Russia. Progressive Realism is the broader intellectual framework from which David Lammy formulates foreign policy, as expressed in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine in April 2024 when he was the shadow Foreign Minister. Under Progressive Realism, the decision-maker deals with the world as it is, not as it should be, differing from classical realism in that its goal is not to accumulate power but to employ it to achieve tangible goals and values with measurable outcomes in supporting democracies, addressing climate change, enhancing governance and international institutions, and achieving development. Therefore, from Lammy’s perspective, European security is realized through interlinking relationships, mutual coordination, and institutional frameworks, making European security a tool for achieving British security. This likely motivated Lammy to request participation in EU Foreign Affairs Council meetings on relevant topics, even though this request was rejected, reflecting Lammy’s aspiration for an institutional framework for British-European dialogue beyond EU membership.
London’s Ability to Bear the Costs of Britain’s Role in Europe:
Engaging regionally, whether bilaterally or multilaterally, requires increased spending to ensure the achievement of desired goals. For instance, the British government is committed to maintaining military spending at 2.5% of GDP as prescribed by NATO. Additionally, the Lancaster House Treaties with France, the trilateral agreement with Australia and the United States, and military aid to Ukraine all demand financial resources. With fluctuating inflation levels and economic difficulties in Britain, securing the financial resources necessary to activate and implement European regional commitments means seeking ways to increase government revenue, possibly reconsidering military procurement deals or reassessing the use of unsuitable human resources, as suggested by Chatham House, which could provide additional income for the government.
London’s Desire to Resolve Disputes with Scotland:
Part of achieving internal stability in Britain relies on ensuring state sovereignty over British regions, particularly Scotland, which has self-governance and has repeatedly demanded separation after Brexit. Therefore, a significant portion of the Labour government’s management of British-European relations depends first on managing the relationship with Scotland, not only to arrange internal affairs but to resolve Scottish objections to the trade and border agreement between Britain and the EU post-Brexit. This explains Starmer’s visit to the devolved British regions: Scotland, Northern Ireland, and Wales on July 7, 2024. Reaching agreements on trade aspects with these regions gives the Labour government negotiating strength with EU countries regarding the Trade and Cooperation Agreement and its expected reviews in 2026.
Diverse Relations
The future of British-European relations entails several main features:
Starmer’s Commitment to Not Returning to the EU: This sets the general climate and broader framework for British dealings with Europe and their goals. In this regard, Starmer has been clear about the necessity of adhering to Brexit, not rejoining the single market, customs union, or free movement, with no possibility of changing that, instead focusing on overcoming differences with neighboring countries and concentrating on shared interests.
Supporting Trade Relations and Mutual Investments: The current government will seek to remove trade barriers and reduce border inspection procedures through establishing a veterinary and food inspection agreement, which would lower the cost of imported and exported foods. Starmer also emphasized the need to deepen Britain’s role within the G20, G7, and Commonwealth. Additionally, the Labour government prioritizes combating corruption and money laundering through joint efforts with European countries, coordinating efforts, and exchanging information in economic crime. To support the export of British services, the Starmer government will negotiate for sector-specific deals with neighboring European countries, such as digital agreements. Britain is also expected to seek a review of the “Trade and Cooperation Agreement” signed with the EU in 2020 as part of the Brexit process. This agreement eliminated tariffs and quotas but created obstacles to cross-border goods trade, raising costs due to customs, regulatory procedures, and rules of origin, which the Scottish Parliament objected to. Therefore, Britain is expected to seek amendments to this agreement with the EU.
Enhancing Cooperation in Education and Culture: Britain is expected to sign a mutual recognition agreement for professional qualifications, helping open job markets for individuals and service exporters in European countries. Additionally, part of the border inspection procedures agreement with European countries will include mobile artists, facilitating their movement and work within and outside Britain and European countries.
Expanding British-European Security and Defense Understandings: The Labour government will seek to sign a new security alliance with the EU to address current and potential regional challenges, rebuilding security relations with France and Germany through bilateral defense agreements, as mentioned by British Foreign Minister David Lammy in the Starmer government. Within NATO, Britain is expected to enhance defense cooperation with partner countries in the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) launched at the NATO summit in Wales in 2014, led by Britain in collaboration with eight European countries: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden. Furthermore, Britain aims to achieve the expected outcomes of the AUKUS trilateral partnership in the Indo-Pacific region with Australia and the US, announced in September 2021. This partnership will provide Australia with submarines with the help of the US and Britain, which will supply steel components from Sheffield and Yorkshire, creating 7,000 to 21,000 jobs for Britons, contributing to economic growth, as Defense Minister John Healey confirmed during his visit to the British Ministry of Defense-owned Sheffield Forgemasters, responsible for supplying steel parts for conventional armed nuclear-powered submarines. This visit, accompanied by the Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister, took place on July 16, 2024. Britain also provides Australia with expertise in managing and operating these submarines, explaining the Australian delegation’s visit to Scotland to see how Astute-Class nuclear attack submarines are managed and operated. Additionally, Macron, before the French elections, stated that British-French security and defense cooperation framed by the Lancaster House Treaties of 2010 is a cornerstone of European security. Finally, as part of security agreements intersecting with border security and immigration, Britain intends to exempt non-British veterans who served in the armed forces and their families from British visa fees in recognition of their sacrifices in maintaining European peace.
Continuing Consensus on Supporting Ukraine Against Russia: Britain’s commitment to supporting Ukraine against Russia will remain unchanged from the Conservative era, with efforts to establish a special court for the crime of aggression against Ukraine to hold the Russian president accountable for this war. Britain will also seek to seize frozen Russian assets and use them to support Ukraine, assisting Kyiv in joining NATO. Undoubtedly, the Defense Minister’s visit to Ukraine and statements about doubling support, along with the Foreign Minister’s visit to Germany, Poland, and Sweden, are preparations for Britain’s upcoming role, which will be unveiled on July 18, 2024, when it hosts the “European Political Community” summit, involving 44 European countries and the presidents of the European Council and European Commission. This community, launched by French President Macron in 2022, discusses the Russian war on Ukraine and explores European security cooperation in the broadest sense. According to the British Foreign Policy Group, continued European support for Ukraine and discussions on Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova joining the EU and NATO will be key topics at the summit.
Cooperation in Combating Illegal Immigration: Contrary to Rishi Sunak’s readiness to exit the European Convention on Human Rights after passing the Rwanda Plan in Parliament, Starmer has repeatedly committed to international law and the provisions of the European Convention on Human Rights. Therefore, the issue of illegal immigration is expected to be the third main topic at the European Political Community summit, where Starmer will seek more effective and humane solutions than the Rwanda Plan, which he canceled, while launching agreements with France and neighboring countries on this issue.
In conclusion, Britain is the largest country economically and militarily outside the EU framework, providing European countries – individually or collectively within the institutional frameworks like the EU and NATO – an incentive to cooperate in various fields. For Britain, international and regional conditions allow for a leading regional role, with a new government eager to prove its worth after a fourteen-year absence from power.
