The Future of American Democracy Under Trump’s Second Presidency: Between Challenges and Resilience

With Donald Trump returning to the White House for a second presidential term in January 2025, American democracy has entered a pivotal phase that may define its future for decades to come. Trump has reaffirmed his staunch nationalist agenda, adopting authoritarian policies that threaten to undermine traditional democratic institutions, prompting many to question: Can American democracy withstand these challenges, or will it slip into a form of authoritarian rule?

1. Direct Threats to Democratic Institutions

Since resuming office, Trump has shown a clear desire to restructure the federal system in favor of the executive branch, bypassing the constitutional balance that separates the three branches of government. He has sought to enhance his presidential powers by sidelining Congress, undermining judicial independence, and targeting a free press, attempting to diminish any internal resistance to his policies. If this approach persists, it could lead to a radical reshaping of the American political system, where power becomes more centralized and the role of oversight institutions—essential to American democracy—diminishes.

2. Media and Press Freedom Under Siege

One of the most significant threats to democracy during Trump’s second term is the ongoing attack on a free press. Trump has continued targeting media outlets that criticize him, threatening actions that could limit their independence, such as imposing stricter laws on publishing freedom and using government agencies to surveil dissenting media institutions. These policies could erode transparency and public accountability, making it easier for the government to implement undemocratic policies without facing public scrutiny.

3. Political Revenge and Undermining Opposition

Trump has made no secret during his second campaign of his intention to retaliate against his political opponents, a plan he began implementing immediately upon returning to power. His administration has launched a campaign to eliminate institutions he views as obstacles to his political agenda, targeting the judiciary, intelligence agencies, and officials who opposed him during his first term. He has also attempted to undermine the electoral system by imposing strict voting restrictions, threatening to weaken the legitimacy of future elections and turn them into tools for consolidating his rule.

4. Erosion of Democratic Values Among the American Public

The biggest challenge may not only lie within state institutions but also in the social and cultural shifts fostered by Trump, which have led a significant portion of the American public to adopt more polarized and hostile views toward the concept of pluralistic democracy. Polls have shown that a large percentage of his supporters are willing to accept undemocratic measures if they align with the goal of “making America great again,” raising concerns that the shift toward authoritarianism may not only come from the top but could also be supported by a broad base that believes in the necessity of strong, unrestrained governance.

5. Can American Democracy Endure?

Despite these challenges, the American system is not wholly fragile. American democracy is built on strong institutions, an active civil society, and established traditions of political resistance. American history has seen numerous crises that threatened the democratic system, such as the McCarthy era in the 1950s and the Watergate scandal in the 1970s; nevertheless, democracy has managed to prevail, thanks to the resilience of oversight institutions and public pressure.

What distinguishes this crisis is that the threat does not come from an external or marginal source but from the highest echelons of power, from a president seeking to reshape the political system to his advantage. If state institutions continue to resist him, democracy may survive; however, if Trump succeeds in tightening his grip on the judiciary, media, and elections, the path may be set for America to transform into a new authoritarian model, where elections become mere formalities and dissenting voices are gradually stifled.

6. Potential Scenarios for the Future of American Democracy

There are three main scenarios for the future of the American system under Trump’s second term:

• Scenario One: Democracy Faces a Harsh Blow but Remains Resilient In this scenario, Trump attempts to exert control over institutions but faces fierce resistance from the judiciary, Congress, and civil society. Measures may be taken to curtail his powers, such as attempts to impeach him or restrict his decisions through the courts. The democratic system will experience turmoil but ultimately survive, strengthening its foundations for the future.
• Scenario Two: Gradual Shift Toward Authoritarianism If Trump manages to marginalize democratic institutions, the United States could evolve into a masked authoritarian system, where elections exist only in name, but their outcomes are manipulated through laws and procedures that favor the ruling party. In this case, the American system could resemble models like Russia, maintaining the appearance of democracy while eradicating its essence.
• Scenario Three: Constitutional Crisis and Democratic Collapse In the worst-case scenario, Trump’s approach could lead to a severe constitutional crisis, wherein he refuses to comply with court rulings and relies on popular support and security forces to bolster his authority. This scenario might witness widespread protests, perhaps even attempts at coups or political insurrection, potentially resulting in a complete restructuring of the American system in a manner that may not be democratic in nature.

Are We Facing the End of American Democracy?

While the future of American democracy remains uncertain, Trump’s tendencies during his second term clearly indicate that the democratic system is facing the greatest test in its modern history. If American institutions succeed in curbing Trump’s excesses, democracy may emerge stronger than before. However, if he is able to tame these institutions, the world may be on the brink of a new phase where America shifts dramatically from its traditional democratic model to a more authoritarian one, reshaping not only American politics but the entire international system.