The world is witnessing a movement in international political interactions, characterized by the establishment of strategic alliances aimed at rearranging international and regional balances in ways that will significantly alter the dynamics of power among actors in international politics. The future of employing alliances in international politics is related to several geopolitical changes and strategic transformations, in addition to the prominent role of interests, threats, and power balances in the future stability or instability of alliances in international politics. These factors also have implications for the reconstruction, stagnation, or termination of alliances in international political processes.
Therefore, we will examine the future of alliances from the perspective of the realist school, hypothesizing that the realist theory serves as the primary determinant for the trends and directions of alliances in international politics. This theory forms the intellectual foundation for alliance policies in international relations. Within the framework of “classical realism,” the future of alliances is primarily about resilience against adversaries, which is a matter of adaptability rather than principle. In classical realist theory, the future of alliances is characterized by cohesion, as well as the persistence and continuity of common threats that led to the formation of these alliances.
In contrast, the future of alliances within the framework of “new realism” depends on the emergence of problems and disagreements, leading to the disintegration of alliances as soon as the threat that initially prompted the alliance disappears.
When envisioning the future, there are several scenarios regarding the future of international alliances in international politics. These scenarios are as follows:
First: Stability and Strengthening of Alliances:
This possibility arises from the assumption that international alliances will continue to be effective as a crucial tool for protecting the interests of the countries involved in the alliance. Notably, the United States’ strategy is based on partnership and the rejection of conflict between the active poles in international politics. This strategy will aim to establish a balance of interests and keep major powers under its influence. In other words, the U.S. will prioritize forming alliances and partnerships to share international responsibilities and distribute benefits, which will render the future of these alliances perpetually stable.
It can be said that American power still holds the initiative to enhance the effectiveness of international alliances. However, the events of September 11 made it difficult for the United States to face high global costs. Consequently, the role played by power in international alliances continues and grows, according to the conditions of a stable global environment.
Second: Instability and Disintegration of Alliances:
This possibility starts from the assumption that international alliances face numerous obstacles that hinder their operation and continuity. The most significant of these obstacles is the divergence or conflict of interests and goals. It is evident that international alliances do not form spontaneously; rather, they are based on a shared interest among allies to enhance the capabilities of member states and enable effective deterrence. Still, alliances are not desirable for their own sake. An example of this is the contrast between Moscow and Tehran. Despite the existence of a strategic alliance between them, differences have surfaced at various times, such as after the liberation of Aleppo in Syria in 2016 when a ceasefire agreement was reached between Moscow and Ankara without considering Tehran’s position, despite its status as an ally of Russia.
It can be stated that the disintegration of international alliances is often a result of the advantages that qualified them for this role, alongside the instability of alliances rooted in the security and political environment, particularly in the context of rapidly evolving events, especially after 2011.
Third: Increasing Utilization of Alliances:
This possibility is reflected in the increased reliance on and utilization of alliances. The United States employs them in its foreign policy, as does NATO. The advantage of alliances lies in being the optimal means to involve others in achieving objectives and sharing burdens for mutual benefits.
This is closely linked to the allies themselves and the strength of the bond that connects them to the United States, in terms of the scale of interests and the strength of the value factor. Western countries, with a “liberal” orientation and close ties to the United States, still share a civilizational heritage and a democratic approach, which are effective means in increasing the alliances of the United States and NATO.
Conclusion:
It has become clear that the future of international alliances, whether they are established and functioning regularly, still forming, or under discussion, does not fall outside two fundamental guidelines that determine their future direction.
The first rule: The rule of unregulated power affecting the essence of the security and stability of the international community ultimately.
The second rule: The rule of balanced powers.
All these alliances require a path of resilience, and perhaps high pressure. Even if they are achieved, it often comes at a steep price, as seen in the European Thirty Years’ War (1648) or the First and Second World Wars, which caused imbalances in international power. The world descended into a disintegration that laid the foundations for a new phase where a new international community was formed based on the aftermath of wars.
Thus, the ongoing conflicts today, which aim to fragment the unipolar system and move towards a multi-polar world with different logic—intertwining smart power, technology, and energy—are aligned along international and regional axes filled with contradictions. This complexity makes it difficult to predict or foresee the outcomes of events, leading us to reflect on the future of the international community and even the fate of the United Nations and its spin-off international and regional coalitions.
To gain a deeper understanding of the trajectories of these alliances, particularly in defense and security in response to potential clashes and their implications for international peace and security, especially concerning the international decision-making centers (such as the UN Security Council), I believe it is essential to rethink the foundations for building a new international community, which will take shape based on new and differing alliances.
