The early general elections were held on October 27, 2024, amidst uncertainty regarding some of the most pressing issues in Japan’s political landscape. Economic issues, particularly income and taxation, were at the forefront of contentious internal debates among various political parties and factions, including the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) led by the new Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba. Additionally, issues surrounding the partnership with the United States and Ishiba’s commitment to the idea of an “Asian” NATO alliance became critical topics that directly impacted the voting mood of constituents.
Shocking Results
The results of the Japanese general elections revealed a growing uncertainty in the domestic political scene that began with Ishiba’s assumption of power in September 2024 and has escalated to a level that makes it practically difficult to assess all its aspects. The implications can be summarized as follows:
The Ruling Coalition’s Worst Electoral Performance in 15 Years: The ruling coalition, composed of the LDP under Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and its smaller partner, Komeito led by Keishi Ishii, recorded its worst electoral performance in 15 years. This raises doubts about the composition of the upcoming government. The Japan Broadcasting Corporation (NHK) reported that the ruling coalition secured only 215 out of 465 seats, while the remaining parties shared the other 250 seats. Previously, the coalition had 279 seats, losing 64 in this election, and thus failed to secure the majority required for the new session of the House of Representatives (233 seats), marking its worst performance since briefly losing power in 2009.
The Decline of Komeito’s Political Influence: Komeito, led by Keishi Ishii, has been a long-standing smaller partner with the LDP. The party won 24 seats, down by 8 from its previous parliamentary count. Notably, party leader Keishi Ishii lost in his electoral district. Comparing his results to previous elections shows a noticeable decline. For instance, in the 2021 elections, Komeito fielded two candidates in nine districts and won all the seats, while this time it put forward 11 candidates in single-seat districts, with only 4 winning, indicating that Komeito was also affected by the “punitive voting.”
Significant Gains for Opposition Parties: The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party led by former Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, gained 148 seats after securing 98 in the previous session. Combined, opposition parties obtained 235 seats out of 465, theoretically enabling them to form a new government due to reaching the required majority of 233 seats. Similarly, the Democratic Party for the People quadrupled its representation to 28 seats, while the Japan Innovation Party won all 19 seats in Osaka, totaling 38 seats. However, the deep divisions within opposition parties on various security-related policies, including among both the communists and extreme right groups, complicate their ability to form a coalition and a new government. Hence, the opposition’s performance in this election can be considered a half-victory and a half-defeat.
Ongoing Public Discontent with the Ruling Party: According to the Associated Press, the general election results symbolized a punishment and expression of voters’ anger towards the ruling party’s financial scandals. One fundamental reason Ishiba called for early elections was his eagerness to secure popular backing for his next steps; however, the outcome was entirely different. The decision to expedite the elections could be viewed as a political gamble by Ishiba, whose misjudgment of the repercussions unveiled a sharp and unprecedented decline in his popularity due to a delay in fulfilling some campaign promises and his failure to swiftly hold party members accountable for their involvement in the scandal surrounding leaking funds. This can be seen overall as a poorly-calculated risk resulting in uncontrollable outcomes.
Significant Ripples
Japan’s political landscape is expected to witness tangible changes both domestically and internationally as a result of this election. The ramifications can be summarized as follows:
Increased Complexity in Forming a New Government: Shigeru Ishiba assumed the premiership after winning the internal elections for the LDP presidency. However, under Japanese law, the new parliament must hold a special session within 30 days of the general election results if no party or coalition has attained a majority. According to this scenario, internal elections would be held among the leaders of the two coalitions that won the most seats, even if neither achieves the required majority. The winner among them would become Prime Minister, while the Senate (currently controlled by the LDP) would choose a Prime Minister. In the event of different individuals being selected for the position, priority would be given to the results of the House of Representatives elections.
Possibility of Forming a “Minority Government”: The Japanese parliament plays a significant role in shaping the country’s internal and external policies, leading to two potential outcomes based on these results: first, Ishiba resigns after just one month in power and a new government is formed; second, he continues and forms a minority government. Ishiba has ruled out the first option, expressing frustration with the election results and simultaneously stating he would remain in his position to avoid causing a political vacuum in the country. Thus, the second option appears closer to reality.
Potential Impact on the Stability of Japan’s Political System: With the ruling coalition having lost its required majority, it will need to rely on partners from smaller center-right parties, such as the Democratic Party for the People and the Japan Restoration Party, to pass legislation on a case-by-case basis. Nevertheless, such a situation is unlikely to achieve the stability that Ishiba hopes for; under this arrangement, the new government could collapse if Ishiba fails to meet the demands of his opponents.
Threat to Ishiba’s Position within the LDP: The election results have opened the floor to early speculation about Ishiba’s political fate, just one month into his term, and through a portal of his own choosing. In late September, Ishiba emerged victorious over his more conservative rivals within the ruling LDP, including those loyal to the late Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, a key figure for Japanese conservatives. This disappointing result weakened both Ishiba and Abe’s faction alike, especially after many in Abe’s faction lost their seats due to their involvement in the leaking funds scandal. While Ishiba has openly expressed his desire to form a new government, his tenure as LDP leader has become questionable, especially with the upcoming Senate elections in July 2025.
This situation seemed to relieve Abe’s faction within the LDP, as they viewed Ishiba’s haste in calling for elections as an attempt to divert attention from the sensitive scandal they are implicated in, even at the expense of undermining his newly established stability and political fate, which now hangs in the balance. This aligns with the perspective of James Brown, a political science professor at Temple University in Japan, who predicted post-election chaos in Japan’s political landscape for several months, amidst expectations that Ishiba’s comrades in the party would eventually remove him from office.
Anticipation of Further Division within Ishiba’s Party: Shingeiro Koizumi, the LDP’s election committee leader, submitted his resignation to Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba immediately following the announcement of the general election results and the party’s loss. Koizumi’s resignation stemmed from his assumption of responsibility for the outcome that has added complexity to the LDP’s political landscape. Prime Minister Ishiba accepted Koizumi’s resignation, indicating that this likely will not be the last resignation from the party’s upper ranks in the near future.
Rearranging Foreign Policy Agendas under Ishiba: Ishiba raised high expectations regarding Japan’s foreign policy before and after taking office; his foreign agenda had a near-revolutionary tone, discussing the importance of enhancing Japan’s military capabilities and playing a greater role both regionally and internationally, alongside his ambition for Japan to lead an “Asian NATO” similar to the European counterpart, which will obviously require both popular and governmental support.
This ambition motivated Ishiba to call early elections. Contrary to Ishiba’s aspirations, the general election results represent an unexpected blow, likely pushing him towards reorganizing his foreign policy priorities. As he is expected to head a “minority government,” he will likely have to distance himself from contentious foreign issues, including the “Asian NATO” concept, as well as retreat from almost certain plans for nuclear sharing arrangements with the United States and the enhancement of Japan’s military capabilities, refocusing instead on other matters that enjoy broad public approval. This comes amid escalating fears in Japan regarding threats from neighboring countries, particularly North Korea and China.
Overall, it can be concluded that the results of the Japanese general elections delivered a significant disappointment to the new Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who had bet on them to solidify the foundations of his rule.
This adverse outcome can be understood in the context of the ongoing repercussions of the leaking funds scandal, which he has yet to overcome. His opponents, notably Yoshihiko Noda, believe his rush to set the election date was merely a tactic to divert attention from this sensitive issue.
Furthermore, the Japanese public is eager to see the outcome of Ishiba’s foreign policy if he remains in power, particularly after he raised high expectations before taking office, emphasizing Japan’s emergence as a significant regional player and moving beyond its historically defensive posture. The election results could undermine this vision and compel him to retreat—not only regarding his political agenda but also concerning his ambitions and political fate, which now hang in the balance.
