As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the Democratic Party finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and fitness for office. The recent presidential debate on June 27, 2024, exacerbated these concerns, as Biden’s performance was marked by stumbles and moments of confusion. This has sparked internal and public debates about his ability to lead the country for another term, especially since former President Donald Trump, Biden’s main opponent, appeared more coherent, complicating Democratic strategy. However, there is no indication that the threat to Biden’s re-election is nearing an end, as the president insists on continuing his campaign, despite growing calls from Democratic officials, donors, and strategists for him to step down.
This situation raises crucial questions about the impact of Biden’s re-election campaign on Democratic Party cohesion, as members weigh the risks and benefits of supporting their current president versus considering a younger, potentially more dynamic candidate.
Signs of Divisions
The Democratic Party faces a multifaceted crisis regarding Biden’s re-election, with sharp divisions emerging within the party. The crisis surrounding Biden’s re-election can generally be addressed as follows:
Ongoing Doubts About Biden’s Mental and Physical Capabilities: Biden’s debate performance, characterized by stumbles and confusion, has intensified concerns about his age and mental capacity, raising questions about his ability to lead effectively for another term. As a result, some prominent donors and supporters are pushing for an alternative to Biden, facing significant challenges given the tight timeframe and rising electoral prospects of Trump.
Calls from Prominent Democrats for Biden to Withdraw: Notably, many prominent Democrats have begun calling for Biden to withdraw from the election, such as Vermont Senator Peter Welch who publicly urged Biden to step down, along with Thomas Friedman, a close associate of Biden since his Senate days, major Biden and Democratic Party donor Mark Boyle, and former Obama campaign official David Axelrod, expressing doubts about Biden’s ability to continue, suggesting his withdrawal might be in the country’s best interest. Similarly, Nancy Pelosi stated in an MSNBC interview, “It’s up to President Biden to decide whether to run or not. We all encourage him to make the decision because time is running out.”
Increasing Internal Party Divisions: The debate has exacerbated divisions within the Democratic Party, splitting members into two camps, with some calling for Biden to be replaced. Leaders like House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries avoid endorsing Biden in private communications, indicating potential hesitation or disagreement within the leadership.
Potential Impact on Biden’s Campaign Financing: Biden’s campaign could be affected, with some donors threatening to withhold funding. For instance, a July 12 New York Times report indicated that a group of influential Democratic donors informed the largest pro-Biden PAC, Future Forward, that nearly $90 million in donations would remain suspended if Biden insisted on running for re-election.
Increasing Signs of Campaign Turmoil: Biden’s campaign faces significant disruptions, such as field organizers leaving key states like Wisconsin out of frustration after the debate, pointing to deeper problems within the campaign’s operational structure, gaining momentum for calls for Biden to withdraw.
Expanding Concerns About Public Reaction to Biden’s Candidacy: There are concerns within the Democratic Party about the negative impact of Biden’s continued candidacy on public response. The debate performance and ensuing controversy have alienated Biden’s traditional base and swing voters. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted online from July 1-2, involving 1,070 American adults, showed that 32% of Democrats believe Biden should end his re-election bid after his lackluster debate performance against Trump. A Washington Post/ABC poll indicated that 67% of participants, including 56% of Democrats, want Biden to end his campaign. Hence, the party needs to reassure its electoral base while also attracting undecided voters, a balance made more difficult by the current crisis.
Key Implications
The ongoing debate about Biden’s candidacy will have several implications for the Democratic Party:
Undermining Democratic Party Effectiveness: Biden’s firm rejection of calls to withdraw from the race, emphasizing that he will be the Democratic nominee to defeat Trump in November 2024, despite internal opposition, could alienate segments of the voter base. Ensuring a smooth and unified transition, if necessary, is crucial for maintaining voter confidence.
Impact on Party’s Electoral Prospects: Biden’s continued candidacy could significantly affect other electoral races. Many Democrats fear that Biden’s noticeable weaknesses could jeopardize their chances in congressional and local elections, potentially leading to losses even in traditionally blue states. The withholding of funding by high-level donors and strategists focusing on candidates who didn’t win their votes amplify this concern.
Electoral Gains for Trump: The party’s ability to attract swing voters and secure victory in key battleground states is at risk. Any instability or lack of cohesion could harm the party’s electoral prospects against Republican nominee Trump.
Delaying Leadership Transition Within the Democratic Party: Biden’s re-election would delay the transition to a new generation of Democratic leaders. While this gives emerging leaders more time to prepare for future political contests, it also slows the party’s adaptation to the evolving political and demographic landscape. This delay could affect the party’s long-term strategic direction and ability to resonate with younger, more diverse voters.
Multiple Challenges
Despite the escalating debate about Biden’s candidacy, several challenges could hinder the possibility of nominating an alternative to Biden, addressed as follows:
Lack of Consensus on a Biden Alternative: Although names like Vice President Kamala Harris, California Governor Gavin Newsom, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer have been floated as potential alternatives, there is no consensus on a single strong candidate. This lack of agreement could further divide the party, weakening the likelihood of nominating an alternative to Biden.
Procedural and Logistical Challenges in Selecting a New Candidate: Democratic Party rules require the candidate to voluntarily step down. Even if Biden agreed to step down, organizing a new primary process and securing delegate votes is a complex and time-consuming task. Shifting donor support to a new candidate and restructuring campaign strategies within a short timeframe adds to logistical challenges. Notably, this situation mirrors the 1968 scenario when President Lyndon Johnson decided not to seek re-election, but Biden’s case is complicated by the proximity of the election and the lack of a clear alternative candidate.
Counterproductive Effect of Trump’s Assassination Attempt: The assassination attempt on Republican nominee Trump during a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024, complicates the calculations of voices calling for Biden to withdraw from the election, as the attempt appears to bolster sympathy for Trump. Republicans are exploiting the assassination attempt to criticize the Biden administration and question security measures for the Republican nominee, likely strengthening Biden’s position within the Democratic Party and making it difficult to nominate an alternative at this time.
Attempt to Maintain Stability of Internal Party Dynamics: Biden’s re-election could temporarily stabilize internal party dynamics by reaffirming his leadership, ensuring the party does not deviate from its internal systems. This is aided by the fact that some voices, especially those aligned with the progressive wing, have not joined the camp calling for Biden’s withdrawal. For example, Senators Bernie Sanders and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez praised Biden’s record and called for continued support.
Pursuing the Party’s Legislative Agenda: Biden’s ability to continue pursuing the legislative agenda is a crucial factor. Success in key policy areas could bolster the party’s standing and provide a strong foundation for future Democratic candidates. However, ongoing internal opposition and external criticism could undermine these efforts, complicating the party’s ability to present a unified front.
Overall, the crisis surrounding Biden’s re-election bid presents significant challenges to Democratic cohesion. Internal divisions, logistical and financial obstacles create a volatile political landscape. The party’s response to this crisis will shape its future and prospects in the 2024 election. Biden’s campaign officials hope that the assassination attempt on Trump will ease congressional Democrats’ pressure on Biden to withdraw from the race amid concerns about his fitness for office.
