The escalating tensions between China and Taiwan raise numerous concerning scenarios in the Indo-Pacific region, including the outbreak of a large-scale military conflict. This situation amplifies the need for the United States—according to American experts—to develop an effective military strategy capable of defeating any potential Chinese invasion or blockade of Taiwan, especially given the geopolitical and economic risks such an event would pose to Washington.
In this context, Matt Pottinger, former Deputy National Security Advisor during the Trump administration from September 2019 to January 2021, alongside other military experts, proposed a book in 2024 titled “The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan.” The book calls on the United States and its allies to take proactive measures to protect Taiwan amidst potential Chinese threats. It outlines insights and strategies aimed at safeguarding American interests in the region, focusing on how to deter China from taking any aggressive actions.
The book also specifies the costs that Taiwan and the United States would incur in the event of an invasion or blockade of Taipei, as well as how to rearm and strengthen the Taiwanese military. It discusses what regional partners like Japan and Australia, as well as non-regional countries such as those in the European Union, should do to help deter China and prepare for any potential moves against Taiwan.
Pottinger played a key role in shaping the hardline American policies during Trump’s first administration. Prior to that, he worked as a journalist in China for seven years before joining the U.S. Marine Corps as a military intelligence officer in 2005, serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. However, he testified against Trump regarding the events of the Capitol riot on January 6, 2021, and has since severed ties with him.
“The Boiling Moat”:
The book argues that the “Boiling Moat” strategy is based on the premise that the United States and its allies should adopt an approach that complicates Chinese efforts to launch an attack on Taiwan. This includes leveraging asymmetrical advantages, such as the 100-mile strait that separates Taiwan from Beijing, its mountainous coast, and coastal features that hinder enemy attacks, in addition to investing in existing technology and systems to enhance munitions capabilities, improve training, and ensure effective coordination to counter any potential clash with China.
Moreover, the book poses that the question is no longer “whether China will attack Taiwan” but “when it will happen,” a sentiment echoed by contributors, including policymakers, researchers, and experts. They provide their analyses on “how” a potential attack might unfold, predicting it could involve a maritime blockade or other means to implement a policy of strangulation and harassment against Taiwan, and how Taiwan, the United States, and other nations would respond.
The book adds that China is likely to avoid mid-level scenarios, such as attacking remote islands, as this would lead to the mobilization of the Taiwanese armed forces, akin to the preparation Ukraine underwent after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. According to the book, China faces two primary options: either fully invade Taiwan at any cost or refrain from doing so entirely. It primarily focuses on gray zone tactics, such as incursion into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone or harassing Taiwanese ships, as precursors to a potential Chinese invasion.
Threats and Deterrence:
The book discusses contemporary Taiwan’s significance from the perspective of its dominance in global semiconductor manufacturing. It highlights the giant Taiwanese firm TSMC, which gained global prominence only after the COVID-19 pandemic, when supply chain crises suddenly made the world aware of its critical role, even as the U.S. has defended Taiwan for eight decades.
From this perspective, American experts argue that a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan or a blockade could pose significant risks and repercussions, including disruptions to global trade, impacting the representative democracy of Taiwan’s 26 million residents. Such an invasion would also severely affect the U.S. supply of advanced semiconductors, possibly leading to a loss of 5 to 10% of the U.S. GDP within a year. By comparison, the book reminds readers that the U.S. economy saw an 8% decline in GDP between December 1941 and December 1942, the first full year of its involvement in World War II.
The book questions Taiwan’s military readiness in the event of a conflict with China, indicating that Taipei is still preparing for a “short and sharp fight” rather than a prolonged war. This insight comes from Michael Hunsicker, one of the experts contributing to the book, specifically in the section on “The Boiling Moat,” where he notes that most front-line Taiwanese army units are at only 60% combat readiness, rendering them ineffective if faced with a large-scale invasion by China.
He emphasizes that the government, military leadership, and people in Taiwan need to change their mindset concerning the threats from China and that it is crucial to convince the Taiwanese army to prepare first for rapid mobilization under fire and then to prepare the entire population in Taiwan for an extended conflict. Additionally, there is a need to improve the military budget, streamline the Taiwanese military structure, and foster social attitudes that facilitate the recruitment of individuals or integrate military matters into civilian life, as is the case in Israel. Experts often cite Israel as a comparable example to Taiwan’s threats, despite the relative differences between the two situations, noting that Israel faces potential threats and has limited natural borders.
Coordination with Allies:
In an effort to rally regional and international support against China, the book highlights the importance of American cooperation with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia to form a united front against Chinese threats. These countries are expected to play a crucial role in any potential conflict. However, discussions in Japan revolve around how it might prepare to act independently of the United States in the event of a conflict, rather than acting as an adjunct to the American military. Similarly, discussions suggest that Europe’s role in supporting Ukraine could positively influence Taiwan, especially as Russian threats to Kyiv might set a negative precedent impacting the entire world, potentially encouraging other authoritarian regimes.
The book points out that there are doubts in Asia regarding the reliability of the American ally, depending on who sits in the White House, highlighting that Tokyo views Washington as an unreliable ally, raising concerns for Japan about fluctuating U.S. policies. This skepticism toward the United States has also risen in Taiwan in recent years, largely as a result of former President Donald Trump’s actions towards allies and his “America First” slogan.
The book notes that the U.S. experience in dealing with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent discussions about whether to continue aid or push Kyiv to negotiate with Moscow have drawn interest in Taiwan. Following that Russian invasion, discussions in Taiwan intensified regarding the necessity for self-reliance, given the likelihood that U.S. assistance and arms might be limited to current circumstances only.
The U.S. is encouraging Taiwan to adopt an asymmetrical defense strategy against China, which has proven largely successful in Ukraine. However, Washington overlooks Taipei’s concerns regarding this strategy, which underscores its worries about increasing dependence on the U.S. On the flip side, Taiwan experiences fears about American arms shipments amidst maritime harassment of its vessels by China, which some experts perceive as potentially laying the groundwork for a future invasion.
In conclusion, the book offers several recommendations, foremost among them the importance of convincing the Taiwanese military to prepare for rapid mobilization and get the populace ready for extended military conflict. The government, military leadership, and citizens in Taiwan need to adjust their stance regarding Chinese threats and treat them with greater seriousness. Simultaneously, regional partners such as Japan and Australia, as well as non-regional partners like the EU countries, must be ready to provide the necessary support to deter Chinese threats and prepare for its potential actions towards Taiwan.
The book also emphasizes the importance of proactive planning and international cooperation to tackle complex challenges in the Indo-Pacific region, suggesting war games to understand how the U.S. would respond in the event of a dispute between Taiwan and China. Finally, it noted that the recent U.S. presidential elections (which resulted in Donald Trump winning a second term) could influence Washington’s defense strategies and foreign policy, necessitating proactive steps from decision-makers to ensure consensus on cooperation with regional allies such as Japan, South Korea, and Australia to form a united front against Chinese threats.
Source:
Matt Pottinger (Editor), “The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan”, Hoover Institution Press, 2024.
