The Global Terrorism Index, released by the Institute for Economics and Peace based in Sydney, Australia, in March 2025, which covered the terrorist situation globally during 2024, highlights the increasing terrorist activity in the African Sahel region, indicating that it has become a global center for this phenomenon that thrives where economic, developmental, and security fragility exists, as well as poverty and ignorance.

Among the ten countries most affected by terrorism worldwide, six are African nations, primarily from the Sahel, with one topping the list. This illustrates the deep infiltration of armed group activities in this region, particularly from groups that have been pushed out of the Middle East, such as the Islamic State (ISIS), which has rapidly spread across various African regions in recent years, exploiting the fragility of the situation in Libya as it seeks access to the Sahel and other varied regions.

Local armed groups also contribute to this scenario, such as the “Support Group for Islam and Muslims” that emerged in Mali and currently operates in the border triangle between Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, or Somalia’s “Al-Shabaab,” which primarily focuses its activity in Somalia but also targets neighboring countries.

Overall, the index reflects a pattern of rising and falling terrorist attacks varying from one African country to another and from one country globally to another; however, it paints a general picture that the war on terrorism in the African continent remains a losing battle for the ruling regimes in various affected countries, regardless of whether they are civilian or military.

Despite the fact that the worsening security situation has often resulted in African militaries ousting civilian presidents, there is hardly any noticeable change in the approaches and visions for confronting the terrorist phenomenon. Various reasons for this will be discussed below.

General Data on the Index

The Institute for Economics and Peace was established in Australia in 2007 and is now regarded as one of the foremost centers measuring global peace indicators, with partnerships with several UN organizations and international institutions such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), UNICEF, and the World Bank.

Starting in 2012, the institute began issuing a global terrorism index that focuses on monitoring and tracking the spread of terrorism globally. This index is based on “data that includes the total number of terrorist incidents throughout the year, the total number of deaths, injuries, and hostages.”

Regarding the index released in March concerning the tracking of global terrorism during 2024, it noted an increase in the number of countries that experienced terrorist attacks from 58 to 66, alongside a 13% decrease in the number of terrorism-related deaths compared to 2023 and a 3% global decline in the number of attacks.

Data from the index confirmed that organizations such as ISIS, the “Support Group for Islam and Muslims,” the “Pakistani Taliban,” and Somalia’s “Al-Shabaab” were responsible for the most deaths worldwide.

The index primarily focused on assessing security conditions in 163 countries worldwide, either due to direct concern about terrorist threats from experiencing or thwarting attacks or due to their proximity to countries where attacks occurred.

Nevertheless, many African countries maintained a record free from terrorist attacks, while attacks increased in some countries and decreased in others for various reasons. Notably, the Sahel region topped the global map concerning the number of terrorist attacks in 2024, leading to its classification as a terrorism hotspot.

Africa on the Global Terrorism Index

The global terrorism index ranked six African countries among the ten most affected by terrorism in 2024, marking that 51% of total global deaths due to terrorism occurred in the Sahel region.

The six affected African countries included Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Somalia, and Cameroon.

Burkina Faso: First Globally

Burkina Faso was ranked first globally as the country most impacted by terrorism in 2024, with “1,532 deaths, averaging about 14 deaths per attack, compared to 7 deaths per attack in 2023.” The index recorded that five of the deaths accounted for globally took place within its borders.

Despite being classified as the country most affected by terrorism, the Global Terrorism Index identified Burkina Faso as the second country with the most significant decrease in the number of terrorist attacks in 2024.

The transitional military authorities in Ouagadougou state that armed groups occupied half the country’s territory in 2022, but their efforts recovered 71% of that land.

Mali: Targeting Bamako for the First Time in Years

In 2024, Mali experienced a decrease in the number of deaths from terrorist attacks, moving from third to fourth place globally, while remaining second in Africa after Burkina Faso, recording 604 deaths from 201 attacks.

Notably, in 2024, terrorist activity reached the capital for the first time since 2016, when an attack claimed by the “Support Group for Islam and Muslims,” led by Iyad Ag Ghali, targeted a school and an air base in Bamako in September, leading to around 100 deaths, marking it as the deadliest incident in Mali throughout 2024 and raising fears concerning the expansion of terrorist activities in the country.

Niger: Increase in Attacks and Deaths

The index ranked Niger fifth globally and second in Africa in terms of the impact of terrorism, with the country experiencing 930 deaths in over 100 attacks, compared to 479 deaths in 62 attacks during 2023, indicating a rise in both the frequency of attacks and deaths.

Strikingly, many of these attacks occurred in the Tilaberi region bordering Burkina Faso, prompting Niger’s authorities to “form specialized units to secure sensitive oil and mineral facilities, comprising 10,000 personnel.”

Nigeria: The Fires of ISIS and Boko Haram

The terrorism index noted an increase in deaths in Nigeria due to terrorist attacks by 6% compared to 2023, while the country recorded a decline in the number of attacks by 37%.

The data indicates that Boko Haram was responsible for 31% of terrorism-related deaths and about a quarter of attacks in 2024, while the number of deaths and attacks attributed to ISIS decreased.

Somalia: Al-Shabaab is Diminished but Not Extinct

The index ranked Somalia seventh globally and fifth in Africa regarding the impact of terrorist attacks in 2024, noting a 29% decrease in the number of attacks and a 19% reduction in deaths compared to 2023. This reflects the effectiveness of the extensive operations carried out by Somali authorities against Al-Shabaab’s attacks since Hassan Sheikh Mohamud assumed power. As a result, 15,000 African peacekeeping forces withdrew. Despite these positive results, Al-Shabaab remains active in the country.

Cameroon: The Alliance of Separatism and Terrorism

The index classified Cameroon as the tenth globally and sixth in Africa regarding the impact of terrorism in 2024, where attacks decreased by 13% and deaths by nearly one-third compared to 2023.

Although Cameroon ranks among the lower-tier countries on the global top ten most affected by terrorism, it faces a dual security challenge that poses a serious threat to its future, stemming from separatist groups seeking independence in the south on one side and the activity of terrorist groups represented by Boko Haram and ISIS on the other, keeping the southwestern and northeastern regions in a constant state of tension.

Causes of Terrorism in the Sahel Region

The reasons behind the emergence and increasing spread of terrorism in the African Sahel region stem from a complex interplay of numerous factors. The major contributing factors can be summarized as follows:

First: Poverty and Fragility of Development

Countries in the Sahel, like most others in the African continent, inherited weak conditions on various fronts from colonialism, but the accumulation of fragility in the decades post-independence, marked by rising poverty and limited developmental opportunities, has created a sense of despair and resentment among some youth against existing regimes. This desperation has led some individuals to take up arms against the state.

Thus, class and social disparities, the expansion of poverty, weak development, and other challenges, which prevented the establishment of genuine states, have directly or indirectly led to the creation of an environment conducive to terrorism.

Second: Tribal and Ethnic Division

The absence of social, economic, and developmental justice, coupled with the monopolization of power by certain social groups in various Sahel countries—especially in the absence of democracy and institutional arrangements that promote equality—has led to ethnic and identity divisions within these countries.

This situation has spurred armed conflicts, resulting in instability, thus feeding into armed groups under the banner of marginalization.

Third: Weak Education

The weakness of education in the region and its absence in many areas has fostered a vicious cycle of poverty, unemployment, and ignorance, fueling resentment towards ruling regimes, seen as responsible for these conditions.

The absence or weakness of education poses a threat as it leaves generations vulnerable to extremist ideologies and armed rebellion against anything associated with the state.

Evidence of the importance of education as a weapon against terrorism is the tendency of armed groups to target schools, enforcing closures or kidnapping teachers, and sometimes students.

Fourth: Military Coups

Various preceding factors, along with others, often lead to military takeovers in African countries.

Some statistics suggest that over 44% of military coups that have occurred in Africa over the past decades are concentrated in the West African region.

Armed groups often exploit military coups that create a power vacuum and shift focus to the political dimension, intensifying their activities and broadening their scope of influence.

Fifth: Natural Factors

Studies indicate a connection between climate change and the rise of violent armed conflicts within states, with traditional conflicts between herders and farmers in Africa being a prominent example; the struggle for limited grazing land often results in violent conflicts between the two parties.

Sometimes, this situation fosters a “breeding ground for organized crime and violence” and leads individuals to join armed groups that present the most profitable economic alternatives.

Prominent Armed Groups Active in the Sahel Region

Numerous armed groups operate in the African Sahel, similar to various other regions in the continent, each differing ideologically, in terms of their spheres of influence, and occasionally converging, with roots stemming from local communities or arriving from outside the African continent.

Some prominent active groups currently in the Sahel include:

  1. ISIS (Islamic State)

This organization arrived in West Africa via Libya during the Libyan revolution, amid the ensuing political and security instability in the country, emerging in Derna in November 2014, with elements that had fought in Syria and Iraq.

The organization quickly spread across the African continent, now having branches in the Sahel and West Africa, specifically:

  • ISIS in the Greater Sahara: Established on May 15, 2015, primarily active in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, having executed several armed attacks. The United States offered a $5 million reward in 2019 for information regarding its leader, Adnan Abu Walid al-Sahrawi, who was later reported killed by French forces in the Sahel in 2021.
  • ISIS in West Africa: Founded in March 2015 after Boko Haram’s leader, Abubakar Shekau, pledged allegiance to ISIS’s leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. After about a year, Shekau was replaced by Abu Musab al-Barnawi.
  1. Boko Haram

Founded in 2002 in northeastern Nigeria, the name translates to “Western education is forbidden” in the Hausa language. This armed group is notorious for its violent activities and kidnappings, either for financial ransom or to negotiate prisoner exchanges with the ruling regime.

One of its most infamous operations was the kidnapping of over 200 schoolgirls in April 2014 from a school in Borno State, northern Nigeria.

Since its inception, Boko Haram’s violent activities have resulted in tens of thousands of deaths among civilians and military personnel, operating not only in Nigeria but also extending to neighboring countries bordering Lake Chad, including Chad, Niger, and Cameroon.

Beginning in 2015, Boko Haram split into at least two factions: one pledging allegiance to ISIS and the other retaining the name and agenda of Boko Haram.

  1. Support Group for Islam and Muslims

Founded in March 2017 under the leadership of the Tuareg Iyad Ag Ghali, yet the four armed groups constituting it had been active prior to its establishment, including:

  • Ansar Dine: The largest armed organization in the Azawad region in northern Mali, founded in 2011 under the leadership of Iyad Ag Ghali, who, after diplomatic service, returned to Azawad and formed a jihadist movement.
  • Masina Battalion: Also known as “Masina Movement,” established in 2014 under Amadou Koufa, primarily operating in central Mali regions like Mopti and Ségou, and characterized by the ethnic composition of its members, all belonging to the Fulani tribes.
  • Macina Battalion: Established in 2013 via the merger of the “Masked Battalion” and “Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa,” both affiliated with al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb.
  • Emirate of the Greater Sahara: Founded by Jamaa Akasha, known as “Yahya Abu Hammam,” who formed a connection between the “Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat” and the main al-Qaeda organization. France reported his death in February 2019.
  1. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb

Founded in January 2007 after changing its name from “the Salafi Group for Preaching and Combat,” it is led by Abdelmalek Droukdal, known as “Abu Musab Abdul Wadud.” Its activities expanded in the Sahel, especially in northern Mali, starting in 2012, by forming alliances with the “Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa” and “Ansar Dine” to strategize a joint plan.

Beneficiaries of Terrorism in the Sahel

Despite the significant repercussions of the spread of terrorism in Africa in general and in the Sahel and West Africa specifically across various security, economic, developmental, social, political, and educational dimensions, there are many beneficiaries of this phenomenon’s prevalence.

International Competition via the Arms Gateway

The continuation and expansion of terrorism in the region fuels international competition in military terms, manifesting in various dimensions, most notably in arms sales, the deployment of military forces, joint military exercises, training, and education.

Before the deterioration of relations between several Sahel countries and France following military coups in the region, Paris was a strategic partner in military affairs mostly, deploying troops in several countries and also exporting arms to them.

French military exports to Africa peaked during the decade prior to recent military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, nearing €27 billion in 2022, the year France completed its military withdrawal from Mali in mid-August.

Following a series of coups, French presence diminished while new ally countries increased their military presence; the new military leaders focused their policies on combating terrorism.

In this context, Russia emerged as a key ally to the region by signing arms deals with several African countries amounting to over $4.5 billion, with Africa being a primary destination for over 30% of supplies from Russian arms firm Rosoboronexport. Moscow also deployed military forces in Niger and engaged military contracts with Mali.

China, despite losing its status as the primary arms supplier to sub-Saharan African countries, did not stray too far, securing the second position, according to a report from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute released in mid-March 2023.

Turkey has also enhanced its presence as a partner to African countries experiencing threats from terrorist groups, with “Bayraktar” drones becoming a significant symbol of Ankara’s military presence in these countries.

Drug and Arms Trafficking

The spread of terrorism benefits arms and drug traffickers, leading to instances of collaboration or alliances between armed groups and smuggling operatives from rebels, militias, and others.

The United Nations has often linked armed groups to facilitating drug trafficking and its proliferation in the Sahel, with the UN Office on Drugs and Crime warning that the Sahel has become a haven for drug trafficking networks, exacerbating already precarious security and stability conditions.

In addition to drug trafficking, the instability caused by terrorist threats also paved the way for widespread arms availability, with reports indicating that out of 100 million weapons circulating across the continent, no fewer than 35 million are located in the Sahel alone.

Military Coups

The failure of civil regimes in addressing terrorism in Sahel countries has been a primary justification for military coups in nations like Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Military leaders in Bamako, Niamey, and Ouagadougou argue that the civilian presidents who were in power constituted part of the problem rather than the solution to the terrorism crisis, also accusing them of “colluding” with terrorists and with France, which deployed forces and established military bases without eliminating the transnational threat.

These military leaders justified their coups as actions aimed at “correcting the situation” and attacking terrorism in a “effective” manner, using these same justifications to maintain power and avoid organizing elections that would allow civilians to return to governance, arguing that peace must precede any electoral commitments.

Conclusion

Military regimes ruling Sahel African countries do not hide their grievances toward the Global Terrorism Index classifications concerning their nations, often reflecting a contentious issue. Frequently, these regimes consider the armed attacks highlighted by Western media as exaggerations to depict them as incapable of confronting a threat they have associated with a significant part of their narratives to justify military coups and economic and developmental fragility.

Conversely, Western media and research centers often allege that Sahel countries’ regimes sometimes conceal terrorist attacks occurring on their territories to avoid displaying their failure to combat terrorism.

Between these two contrasting positions lies an undeniable reality—despite differing motivations and justifications—that the African Sahel has today become a hotbed for terrorism, a situation assisted by numerous factors persisting since the decades post-independence. The accumulation of crises and issues lacking resolution or being addressed with superficial solutions, not accounting for the holistic nature of economic, developmental, and social challenges, has fostered an atmosphere of unrest and violence that ultimately birthed armed groups against ruling regimes.

Furthermore, the fragility accompanying state structures in Africa, including Sahel countries, rendered the region a suitable home for armed groups arriving from nations and areas beyond the continent, using various banners: sometimes to oppose foreign military forces, other times to establish an “Islamic state or caliphate,” and at times for other diverse demands.

There is no doubt that confining efforts to combat terrorism primarily to military solutions, at the expense of economic, social, developmental, educational, and other dimensions, has failed to eradicate this phenomenon, allowing it to expand towards other countries after being somewhat contained.

Thus, the terrorism hub in the Sahel is prone to expansion unless comprehensive solutions and means capable of executing those solutions are found. Recently, the resurgence of attacks in Togo, Benin, and other West African countries signals a potential escalation.

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