Hakan Fidan, the Turkish Foreign Minister, visited Niger on July 17, 2024, reflecting Turkey’s growing interest in expanding its influence and strategic presence in the Sahel and West Africa. Through the gateway of Niamey, Ankara seeks to secure access to uranium to support its emerging nuclear industry. This is in light of significant changes in Niger’s relations with some international players, especially France and the United States, creating an open field for their strategic competitors, notably Russia, China, Iran, and Turkey.
This visit holds importance from several aspects:
Timing: It comes at a critical moment for the Sahel region following the launch of the Sahel States Confederation on July 6, 2024, by Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso, which withdrew from ECOWAS in January 2024. This move is seen amidst speculation of reshaping international and regional power balances in the Sahel, coinciding with a decline in Western, especially French, influence in the region, contrasted with the rise of Russian presence. The new tri-nation alliance, particularly Niger, needs to expand its international alliances to enhance its vital interests in issues such as the war on terrorism and economic development.
Composition of the Turkish Delegation: The delegation included the Minister of Defense, the Director of Turkish National Intelligence, the Minister of Energy, the Deputy Minister of Trade, and the Head of the Defense Industries, indicating that the visit’s objectives revolve around enhancing security cooperation to promote Turkish arms industries in Niger and the region. It also covers economic, trade, and energy cooperation for Turkey, which are critical avenues for strengthening Turkish influence in Niger and the region at large.
Turkey’s moves in the Sahel and West Africa reveal its comprehensive vision of Africa as a strategic arena to gain international and regional stature. However, Ankara may face resistance from some influential powers who view Turkish influence as a threat to their vital interests in the region.
Key Dimensions
The development of Turkish-Nigerien relations has multiple dimensions in recent years, highlighted as follows:
Niger’s Strategic Importance: Turkey’s efforts to be near regional events, whether in deep Africa or strategic neighboring areas, highlight Niger’s geostrategic importance for Ankara. Niger is the largest country in the Sahel and serves as a link between North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, sharing borders with seven countries, including Libya, which is crucial for Turkey’s policy in the Middle East and Africa. Niger’s proximity to warm waters via Algeria (Afro-Mediterranean) and Nigeria (Afro-Atlantic) provides strategic advantages for Turkey to maximize its vital interests in the region. Turkish presence in Niger ensures access to the country’s natural and mineral resources like gold and uranium, holding about 5% of the world’s uranium resources and being one of the top 10 uranium exporters globally. Turkey’s involvement in regional or international initiatives related to regional security in the Sahel and regional integration projects, such as the Tunisian-Libyan continental trade corridor announced in August 2023 and the Atlantic initiative launched by Morocco in November 2023, further underscores its interest in Niger.
Growing Political and Diplomatic Relations: Despite the increasing rapprochement between Ankara and Niamey since the last decade, particularly after the Turkish embassy opened in 2012, Turkey has intensified its political and diplomatic relations with Niger’s ruling military council since they came to power. Turkey opposed ECOWAS’s military intervention threat in Niger following the 2023 coup, making Ankara a reliable ally for the new military rulers. This led to mutual official visits, such as the recent visit by the Turkish Foreign Minister and the visit of Niger’s transitional president “Abdul Rahman Tchiani” and Prime Minister “Ali Lamine Zein” to Ankara in January 2024 to expand Niger’s international alliances.
Enhancing Economic Relations: Ankara views Niger as a large market for Turkish products and aims to promote them regionally, especially as Turkey strives to create a dominant regional hub in consumer markets. This includes expanding Turkish arms exports in the region, leveraging the regional security instability due to terrorist organizations and political and border conflicts. Turkish companies are active in several sectors in Niger, including energy, minerals, services, and construction. Notable projects include the $152 million development of Niamey Airport by Turkish company Soma, which manages it for 25 years, a liquefied gas cylinder production facility by Reibcon, and mining exploration in various fields. Turkish companies might replace expelled French and Canadian companies in Niger’s uranium market, enhancing Turkey’s economic gains and securing necessary uranium for its industries. Despite weak trade figures between the two countries, trade has increased in the last two years. Bilateral trade fell to $58 million in 2020 due to COVID-19, compared to $72 million in 2019, but rose to $85 million in 2021 and doubled to $203 million in 2023. Economic engagement was evident during the recent Turkish visit, where several economic cooperation agreements were signed, including a declaration of intent for cooperation in oil and natural gas. Future cooperation between the two countries is expected to expand in various economic fields.
Increasing Security and Defense Coordination: Ankara aims to promote its model in the war on terrorism in the region, leveraging security and defense agreements with most African governments, including a defense agreement with Niger in 2020. Turkey’s proximity to strategic areas like Libya is ensured through this cooperation. Reports suggest Ankara sent around 1,500 Syrian mercenaries to Niger since September 2023 to secure government and military sites and participate in combat missions alongside the Nigerien army, avoiding direct Turkish military intervention like France’s since 2013. Instead, Turkey provides logistical support, including drones and training for regional armies. Ankara seeks to become a provider of weapons systems and military training, establishing a comprehensive arms manufacturing and military industry environment spanning from North Africa to West Africa. This includes exporting its expertise in drones like the “Bayraktar” to Sahel countries, including Niger, which has acquired six Bayraktar drones, a Hurkus aircraft, and armored vehicles.
Increasing Turkish Developmental Role: Turkey effectively employs its soft power and developmental approach to win African hearts and minds through several NGOs offering charitable, developmental, and educational activities. Turkish universities host several Nigerien students, and the Turkish Maarif Foundation runs 13 schools across Niger with around 1,613 students. The Turkish TIKA agency provides healthcare services, including the Turkish-Nigerien Friendship Hospital, operational since 2019, among other humanitarian services.
Potential Implications
This visit by Turkish officials to Niger could have several potential implications locally, regionally, and internationally:
Stabilizing the Nigerien Ruling Regime: The ruling military council in Niger sees expanding its international alliances, especially with Turkey, as an opportunity to ease international and regional pressures, ensuring support against potential sanctions, possibly extending the transitional period, and maintaining the military elite beyond upcoming elections.
Revitalizing Niger’s Economy: Turkish companies’ involvement in vital sectors like infrastructure could boost the national economy, create more job opportunities, and attract more foreign investors to implement projects in Niger.
Potential Establishment of a Turkish Military Base: Strengthening strategic relations might lead to Turkey securing a military base in Agadez, northern Niger, rich in uranium and bordering Libya, Algeria, and Chad. This would enable Turkey to station troops, control African resources, and remain close to regional hotspots.
Increasing Nigerian Concerns Over Turkish Expansion: West African countries, especially Nigeria, fear the region turning into an open arena for international competition, including attempts to establish foreign military bases, which could threaten regional security and militarize the area.
Supporting the New Regional Tri-Nation Alliance: Turkey might leverage its relationship with Niger to enhance strategic relations with the Sahel States Confederation, including Mali and Burkina Faso, strengthening the legitimacy of this regional entity. Turkey might also expand arms exports to support the alliance against terrorism, a crucial entry point for strategic influence in the Sahel.
Escalating International Competition in the African Sahel: Various international and regional powers are expected to compete for African resources, particularly uranium, exploiting the region’s need for new partners to combat terrorism and overcome economic and security crises. This might lead to increased international involvement and potential conflicts over conflicting interests, negatively impacting the Sahel and West Africa’s security and stability.
Increasing Turkish-French Rivalry: The competition between Turkey and France might escalate in Africa as Turkey seeks to fill the void left by France in the region. France, concerned about its strategic gains in West Africa, might obstruct Turkish influence in the coming period.
Providing Leverage for Ankara Against the West: Turkey’s strategic position in the Sahel offers leverage to negotiate with the West on various issues, including Turkey’s EU membership. Enhanced Turkish security presence in the Sahel allows bargaining on terrorism and African migrants, capturing African resources, and depriving the West of them, potentially escalating confrontation between the two sides in Africa.
In summary, Turkey aims to strengthen its presence in Sub-Saharan Africa, solidifying its relationship with Niger following the recent coup and leveraging the strategic shift in the Sahel amid declining Western influence and the rise of other powers like Russia. Using strategic tools, particularly security and economy, Turkey is expected to become a strategic ally for most Sahel countries, though it might face international and regional resistance protecting their vital interests.
