Strategic Opportunities: How Does Putin Benefit from Trump’s Presence in the White House?

The presence of U.S. President Donald Trump in the White House may represent a golden opportunity for Russia to achieve its strategic interests, both in its immediate regional surroundings and in seeking to restore part of its lost role on the global stage. This arises from both presidents speaking the same language of “interests,” which explains their political behavior and motivations for foreign action, alongside direct interests for Moscow under Trump’s administration, contrasting with his predecessor, President Joe Biden, who sought to isolate Russia after its war on Ukraine in February 2022. However, Russia’s vision of its role cannot be viewed in isolation from the realization of its declining comprehensive capabilities compared to both the United States and China, and its practical inability to exercise that role, as reflected in its weakened economy and the depletion of its military machinery after nearly three years of continuous fighting.

Common Traits:

Trump and Putin share several traits that characterize their self-perception, the status of their countries, and the global order, as can be seen in the following:

“Over-leadership” with Contextual Differences: This is linked to an “excessive personalism” style and top-down decision-making rather than relying on traditional institutions and classical diplomacy. In Trump’s case, this is bolstered by the Republican Party’s majority in both the House and Senate and his efforts to weaken judicial and intelligence institutions.

Nationalism as a Major Driving Force for Foreign Policy: While Trump raises the slogan “America First” and “Make America Great Again,” reflecting his concern about declining U.S. power globally; Putin has promoted the idea of a “Great Russia” since taking power, aiming to restore the glories of the former Soviet Union. This nationalism results in an increasing reliance on “power” as a tool to resolve conflicts and fulfill national dreams; the former through his concept of “peace through strength,” and the latter through his military intervention in Ukraine, claiming that “Russians and Ukrainians are one people,” and that “Ukraine never had a tradition of establishing a real state,” as he put it.

A Diminished View of Multilateral International Institutions: These are the institutions established after World War II, such as NATO and the World Trade Organization. Trump views them as working against American interests, and Putin considers them to be dominated by the West, proposing alternative organizations like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, through which he promotes policies to disengage from the U.S. dollar. These views radically differ from those adopted by Biden, which are based on a “rules-based international order” led by the U.S. and its Western allies for decades.

These personal traits create space for a “psychological convergence” that allows Trump and Putin to operate in a manner highlighted by Trump’s opening of back channels for understanding with his Russian counterpart and sending his personal envoy, Steve Witkoff, to meet with Putin four times between January and April 2025, with the Russian president welcoming these meetings. Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s assistant for foreign policy, described these meetings as “useful and constructive.” This pattern is naturally different from Putin’s relationship with Biden, who adopted a hardline stance regarding the Russian war on Ukraine, declared unconditional support for Kyiv, and allowed it towards the end of his term to carry out strikes with U.S.-made weapons deep within Russian territory.

However, Trump and Putin differ in the depth of their strategic thinking and movement on the global chessboard. While Trump prefers to rely on “deals” rather than “ideology” or “long-term strategies” to achieve gains, stemming from his background as a successful businessman; Putin operates according to a specific strategy focused on rapid gains with an emphasis on long-term goals, which include addressing the root causes of the conflict in Ukraine, obstructing NATO’s expansion near Russian borders, and reshaping the global order so that Russia plays a significant role in it, especially concerning Europe, which Moscow considers its main sphere of influence.

Moscow’s Interests:

Russia’s interests under Trump’s administration can be summarized as follows:

Neutralizing Ukraine According to Putin’s Ideological Vision: This primarily hinges on recognition of Moscow’s sovereignty over Crimea, occupied in 2014, which is viewed as the only outlet allowing Russia access to warm waters. This is underscored by Trump’s statement to Time magazine on April 25, 2025, that “Crimea will remain with Russia, and Zelensky knows that.” Additionally, it involves retaining territories occupied in Eastern Ukraine since the onset of the war in 2022, including Luhansk Oblast and parts of Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. It is noteworthy that Moscow’s retention of these lands will occur under a “non-official” American recognition, which could potentially open the door for renewed conflict in the future if the conditions are right.

Halting NATO’s Expansion Along Russian Borders: This is evidenced by Trump’s remarks to Time magazine, in which he indicated that Ukraine would never be able to join NATO, asserting that the war’s cause was Kyiv’s desire to join the alliance. Leaked reports regarding the peace proposal presented by the U.S. administration to both parties suggest not joining NATO while exploring the possibility of joining the European Union. Keeping Ukraine outside of NATO tends to assuage Moscow’s fears of NATO encircling Russian borders, especially since Finland’s accession in April 2023 added 1,300 kilometers to its western border with NATO countries; this practically expanded NATO’s military capabilities across this distance and imposed additional burdens on Moscow to secure its vast borders.

Lifting Sanctions Imposed on the Russian Economy Since 2014: Putin aims to lift these sanctions to alleviate internal pressures he faces. It is noted that Washington uses this card as a negotiating tool in its relations with Moscow, as the proposed peace agreement circulated between both sides entails lifting these sanctions; however, Trump threatened, after meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky in Vatican City, during Pope Francis’ funeral, to use banking and secondary sanctions on Moscow if Putin did not agree to a complete cease-fire along the front lines.

It is also observed that these sanctions have significant impacts on the Russian interior, and their effects are likely to increase following Britain’s decision last April to impose 150 new trade sanctions on Moscow aimed at “suffocating the Russian war machine,” which included halting the flow of innovative software and technologies to Russia’s defense and energy sectors, including video game controllers used to guide drones and stopping the transfer of technologies used in producing high-priority goods (like electronics such as speakers and electronic circuits).

Global Opportunities:

In light of the above, Moscow sees many opportunities presented by Trump’s presence in the White House, allowing for a greater ability to pursue an influential global role, as follows:

Trump’s Policies and the Fracture of the Western Deterrence Camp: This camp has been established since the end of World War II, with the U.S. being seen as a trusted security partner defending European security against potential Russian threats. This was clearly evident in Trump’s stance on NATO, which he deemed a “burden,” aligning with Russia’s interest in weakening it. He expressed doubts during his first term about the effectiveness of NATO’s existence and threatened to withdraw if partner countries did not meet their commitment to spend at least 2% of their GDP on defense. During his current term, he urged European member states to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP, threatening them last March by stating, “If they don’t pay, I won’t defend them.” Russia believes that the deepening rift between the Atlantic sides will give it more room to maneuver in Ukraine; this has indeed been demonstrated by the indirect negotiations led by Washington as well as in other areas like the Caucasus and Central Asia.

Undermining the International Order Led by Washington: There is no doubt that the “America First” approach and Trump’s demands that his allies pay for U.S. services, alongside his opening of multiple simultaneous fronts of conflict, such as the dispute with Canada over his desire to annex it as the 51st state, and with Denmark over his wish to take control of Greenland, and with China and the European Union over recent tariffs; all of this will lead to a rise in challenges to American dominance and the collapse of the “moral America” narrative on the global level, shaping a new global order based on multipolarity. Moscow is exploiting this environment to promote its narrative of the need to revise the prevailing international system it views as a reflection of Western hegemony, by reinforcing its model of illiberal governance abroad, strengthening its status as a great power, undermining key international and regional institutions, and executing hybrid and disruptive actions in Europe as an alternative mechanism for changing traditional power balances without resorting to outright war. This Russian vision of a new world order is appealing to many countries in the Global South that complain about the selective application of global rules and standards, as well as their weak representation in many multilateral institutions.

Reshaping Global Geopolitical Balances to Expand Russia’s Influence: Moscow is betting on two main factors to achieve this goal: the first is the impact of Trump’s presence; it is expected that the intensification of political polarization within the U.S. will consume a significant portion of Trump’s administration’s focus on domestic affairs, granting Russia more global maneuvering space. The second is that the U.S. focus on countering the Chinese threat could create a security vacuum in areas like Eastern Europe, providing Moscow with greater opportunities to act in countries like Georgia and Moldova. The U.S. National Intelligence Director’s annual assessment in March 2025 emphasized this by stating that “China poses the most comprehensive and severe military threat to U.S. national security… it is the most capable party to threaten U.S. interests worldwide.”

In this context, Russia has worked to enhance its image as an independent power from the West and sought to strengthen its strategic alliances, foremost among them its relationship with China, through the reciprocal visits between Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping, starting with Putin’s visit to Beijing in February 2022 just days before the war in Ukraine erupted, followed by their announcement of a “no limits partnership” and signing agreements in energy, technology, and military sectors. This visit was succeeded by President Xi’s visit to Moscow in March 2023, and then again by Putin’s visit to Beijing in May 2024. At the same time, Russia has worked to bolster its relations with North Korea through reciprocal visits between the heads of the two countries and the ratification of a mutual defense treaty with Moscow by Pyongyang in November 2024, reflecting an increase in mutual reliance under Western pressures.

Additionally, Russia has sought to form new alliances with countries like India, where defense and commercial cooperation has been enhanced, with shared economic and strategic interests. Moscow has not overlooked building partnerships with countries in Africa and Latin America, attempting to expand its influence away from U.S. dominance. In this framework, the competition with Washington over the rich oil and gas resources of the Arctic cannot be ignored, where Russia controls nearly half the region’s reserves; this significantly boosts its strategic influence there.

Challenges to the Role:

The aforementioned opportunities face several challenges that affect Russia’s effectiveness in fulfilling the role it aspires to, especially when compared to the United States and China. On one hand, Russia is suffering from a decline in its capabilities, as evidenced by the weakness of its industrial base compared to major European countries like Germany and France, as well as its economy’s reliance on exporting oil and gas, whose sales have begun to decline following the EU’s decision to phase out Russian energy imports and diversify its supply sources after the war in Ukraine. The likelihood of this decline increases as Trump demands European countries to purchase more American oil and gas to compensate for the trade deficit that reached approximately 156 billion euros by the end of 2023.

This decline is also evident in the Russian army’s inability to decisively conclude the war in Ukraine, despite the classification of the Russian military as the second strongest globally.

These challenges are connected to the unintended consequences of the rift in U.S.-European relations, which has prompted Europe to rearm itself, as highlighted by the EU representatives’ agreement at a summit held for this purpose in Brussels in March 2025 to mobilize about 800 billion euros for European rearmament, with differences over the sources of funding. Although these steps hold symbolic significance, it is still too early for European nations to defend themselves independently of NATO.

Finally, Russia’s continued ambition for a global role hinges on two main factors: the first is Putin’s continued rule, as his personal ambitions and desire to leave a historical legacy comparable to great tsars like Peter the Great drive most of Russia’s policies. The second factor is Moscow’s ability to overcome the challenges resulting from its increasing dependence on China and North Korea to offset its losses in the Ukrainian war, along with facing Western sanctions that continue to exert significant pressure on its economy.

From all of the above, it is evident that Russia recognizes that Trump’s return to the White House opens a rare strategic window for repositioning itself in the international system and achieving several of its vital interests, both in Ukraine and in reshaping global balances. While Moscow hopes to leverage the prevailing Western division and the rise of nationalist sentiments within the United States, it also realizes that the international landscape has become more fluid and volatile than ever, necessitating careful maneuvering that balances seizing opportunities while avoiding miscalculations that could cost it dearly.