In one of its most forceful warnings to date against Taiwan’s pro-independence movement, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China conducted a massive two-day military exercise around the island on April 1–2, 2025, dubbed Strait Thunder – 2025A.
Simultaneously, the PLA released a striking video titled Suppress the Demons and Eliminate Evil, declaring that China’s overwhelming military power can “annihilate” Taiwan separatists—referred to metaphorically in the video as “bound demons.” A spokesperson from the Chinese Communist Party’s Taiwan Affairs Office went even further, warning that any formal declaration of independence would be akin to “triggering a war,” potentially plunging the Taiwanese people into a perilous armed conflict.
Nature and Scope of the Maneuvers
The exercise brought together China’s land, naval, air, and missile forces for joint operations. Dozens of warships and aircraft participated in precision strikes targeting land and sea objectives, energy supply lines, and potential foreign military aid routes. The PLA emphasized strengthening its naval blockade strategy, including interception, deterrence, and vessel capture operations.
A notable development was the deployment of the CNS Shandong aircraft carrier, which simulated targeted strikes on Taiwan’s eastern coast and practiced capturing separatist figures attempting to flee after a hypothetical military confrontation. Live-fire long-range missile drills were also held in the East China Sea, aiming at disabling vital infrastructure like ports and energy stations.
According to The Global Times, China deployed advanced weaponry including YJ-21 anti-ship ballistic missiles and H-6K bombers—some reportedly capable of carrying nuclear warheads.
This operation follows a series of Chinese military moves initiated in August 2022, after then–U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. It builds on earlier drills named Common Sword held in 2023 and 2024. According to Chinese military analysts, these actions are part of a broader effort to deter Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leaders and affirm China’s unwavering claim over the island.
A Dual Message: Warning Taiwan and Testing Trump
The Strait Thunder – 2025A drill sends a dual message: it serves as a strong warning to Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te and acts as a litmus test for the newly re-elected U.S. President Donald Trump.
Since taking office in May 2024, Lai has escalated tensions with Beijing through provocative statements. In his inaugural speech, he stated that “the two sides of the Strait do not belong to each other,” heightening concerns in China. During a stopover in Guam, he even suggested a joint defense strategy against China, indicating a move toward transforming Taiwan into a strategic anti-China outpost in the Asia-Pacific.
Lai has also introduced the “Seventeen Strategies” doctrine, describing Taiwan-China relations as “hostile.” On March 13, 2025, he went so far as to label China an “enemy foreign power”—a first for any Taiwanese president.
Sensing Opportunity Amid Strategic Ambiguity
China’s second objective with these drills appears to be probing the Trump administration’s intentions, which so far reflect a strategy of “strategic ambiguity.” The lack of a clear U.S. stance may have emboldened Beijing to press forward with its military demonstrations.
Several recent developments may have influenced China’s decision:
- Changes in U.S. Rhetoric: The U.S. State Department quietly removed language opposing Taiwan independence from its website, while the G7 joint communiqué made no mention of the “One China” policy.
- Asia Tour by Defense Secretary Pete Higgsyth: Marked by strong anti-China statements and the announcement of a new Indo-Pacific military command center in Japan.
- A leaked strategic memo, published by The Washington Post, revealed U.S. planning for a potential Chinese attack. It included bolstering American military presence in the region and stockpiling critical munitions.
Backlash and Global Reactions
Taiwan harshly condemned the drills as a direct threat to regional peace. Washington accused Beijing of “destabilizing the region” while reaffirming its “unshakable commitment” to its partners and allies, including Taiwan. Both the European Union and Japan expressed concern, condemning any attempt to unilaterally change the status quo by force.
Beijing, for its part, insisted that the Taiwan issue is a purely internal matter. China’s Foreign Ministry warned that any provocation promoting Taiwanese independence would trigger firm and sustained retaliation.
Conclusion: Toward a Strategy of Gradual Asphyxiation
Strait Thunder – 2025A showcases the PLA’s capability to encircle and isolate Taiwan using coordinated military pressure. Rather than opting for a direct invasion—risky, costly, and unpredictable—China seems to be favoring a more gradual “asphyxiation” strategy via blockade. This approach is cheaper, more sustainable, and harder for the United States and its allies to directly counter.
Such tactics also preserve ambiguity around rules of engagement, putting the onus on Washington to reveal its true red lines.
The months ahead will be critical. If the United States and its Asian partners are serious about defending Taiwan, they must move beyond declarations. Concrete, credible actions will be necessary—possibly risking escalation with Beijing.
