Securing Allies: Dimensions of Washington’s Announcement on Deploying Long-Range Missile Capabilities in Germany
Following the conclusion of the NATO summit in Washington on July 11, 2024, the Kremlin stated that the U.S. plan to periodically deploy long-range missiles in Germany would lead to a Cold War-like confrontation between Russia and the West. This statement came after the White House announced its decision to deploy long-range American missile capabilities in Germany during the NATO summit in Washington, noting that deploying long-range weapons in that region—including Tomahawk and SM6 missiles—serves as a deterrent. This decision sparked a wave of reactions and was seen by some as a revival of Cold War arrangements or even the beginning of the complete collapse of the arms control regime.
Defense Cooperation
This decision has several implications reflecting the reasons and motivations behind its timing, including:
Perceiving the Danger of the Ongoing Ukraine War and Russian Field Advances: The U.S.-German announcement indicates NATO’s perceived threat from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which has lasted more than two and a half years, and Russia’s recent field victories, including in Kharkiv. Given the ineffectiveness of Western deterrence in pushing Russia back or making it accept Western conditions, similar escalation remains the only option for dealing with the field situation, regardless of its effectiveness in calming the situation.
Desire to Escalate and Pressure Russia: Washington and NATO aim to send a message of escalation to Russia, given the frequent estimates and reports that Russia no longer cares about new Western military aid to Ukraine, being convinced that it won’t make a significant field change. Therefore, the announcement of these missile systems’ deployment in Germany for the first time since the end of World War II is a clear escalatory message signaling a shift in balance.
Developing the Alliance’s Missile Capabilities: The decision has not only a political indication of returning Germany to the scope of long-range missile deployment but also represents a technical upgrade of the alliance’s existing and deployed capabilities. The deployment of Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles and longer-range hypersonic missiles is a notable rise in existing capabilities.
Ending the Revival Hopes of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty: The missiles to be deployed were banned under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, signed at the end of the Cold War, covering ground-launched missiles with ranges between 500 and 5500 kilometers (310 to 3400 miles). In 2014, the U.S. accused Russia of violating the agreement by deploying a new type of nuclear-capable cruise missile, then withdrew from it in 2019, followed by Russia. The commitment to deploy these types of missiles is seen as a complete undermining of this treaty, which the international community hoped to revive.
Increased Internal Pressure on Scholz: From Germany’s perspective, Chancellor Olaf Scholz praised the planned deployment of American weapons in his country, calling it a “necessary, important, and timely decision.” These statements reflect the importance the German public now places on national security concerns against Russia and the pressure Scholz faces to enhance Germany’s defensive capabilities.
Biden Affirming Continued Support for European Security: The U.S. administration’s decision to deploy missiles in Germany reflects Biden’s efforts to reaffirm continued support for European security, especially in light of growing calls in Europe for strengthening defense independence from Washington. These calls have gained momentum recently with the increasing likelihood of Trump’s return to the White House and concerns about the policies he might adopt towards NATO and Washington’s European allies.
Potential Implications
The U.S.-German announcement on deploying these systems has several potential implications, including:
Driving a New Arms Race: Beyond ending the revival hopes of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, this decision is expected to continue eroding the international arms control regime, with quantitative and qualitative increases in nuclear capabilities by the U.S. and Britain on one side and Russia and China on the other. This includes the clinical death of the “New START” treaty between Washington and Moscow. Moscow is expected to widely deploy its missile capabilities on its territory and that of its allies, posing additional threats to the international arms control and non-proliferation regime.
Possibility of Moscow Adopting a More Aggressive Behavior in Ukraine: Following the decision, the Kremlin spokesperson stated that Washington’s decision had given Russia “a reason to unite” and “achieve all the goals of its military campaign in Ukraine.” These statements are interpreted as reflecting Russian intentions to intensify military operations in response to this escalation or a desire to achieve a qualitative superiority before the actual deployment of these missiles in 2026.
Increased Demand for American Weapon Systems: The joint U.S.-German statement indicated that the missile deployment was initially seen as temporary but would later become permanent as part of the U.S. commitment to NATO and enhancing Europe’s “integrated deterrence” system. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that the idea behind the U.S. plan is to encourage Germany and other European countries to invest in developing and purchasing long-range missiles, indicating a medium-term revival in the American military industries due to securing new European contracts for at least five years.
Expecting More Involvement of Asian Allies in NATO Policies: The U.S. and Japan previously announced that Japan would send shipments of Patriot interceptor missiles to replenish the U.S. stockpile, indirectly supporting Washington’s war efforts in Ukraine. The NATO summit also included a meeting with IP4 countries (Japan, Australia, South Korea, and New Zealand) to indicate the overlap between European and Asian security. Based on this, Washington may push its Asian allies to transfer or re-export some offensive capabilities, deploying these systems in allied countries.
Expanding Russia’s Partnerships with Washington’s Adversaries: In response to Western escalation, Russia may accelerate its cooperation pace with countries outside its traditional alliances, enabling them to develop their offensive missile capabilities. Key partnerships include North Korea, recently linked with Russia through a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement and a mutual defense agreement, and Iran, expected to be Russia’s next enhanced alliance stop. Both Pyongyang and Tehran already possess significant missile capabilities that could pose a real threat to U.S. allies, whether in the Indo-Pacific region or the Middle East.
In conclusion, the U.S. and Germany’s decision to deploy long-range missiles in Germany is a strategic step aimed at enhancing defensive capabilities, deterring potential threats, and maintaining geopolitical stability. As global security dynamics continue to evolve, this decision reflects a proactive stance to protect national and regional interests, strengthen the transatlantic alliance, and contribute to creating a safer international landscape from an American perspective, automatically leading to similar escalation by Moscow using the same expansion mechanisms and strategies, resulting in a zero-sum scenario with severe consequences for international stability.
