Recently, the United States has witnessed incidents of political violence, such as armed supporters of former President Donald Trump storming the U.S. Capitol in protest of the election results, as well as a plot by a group of white nationalist militias to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, the Governor of Michigan, and try her for treason. These incidents, among others, seem ostensibly individual actions by a small group of extremists, yet they reveal a notable rise in violence, extremism, and hate crimes across various American states, to the extent that armed individuals have become a familiar sight. Such violence could potentially lead the world’s superpower into a second civil war.
Barbara F. Walter, a professor of international relations at the University of California, warns of this tragic fate for her country in her latest book, “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them,” which distills her extensive research and fieldwork experience studying hundreds of civil wars that have erupted since the end of World War II in regions such as Northern Ireland, Colombia, Syria, Zimbabwe, and Myanmar. Walter posits that several indicators typically precede the outbreak of civil war in a nation, such as the rise of extremist groups and citizens’ tendencies to purchase weapons, noting that these indicators are currently evident in the United States.
The State of “Anocracy”
The author believes that fully authoritarian regimes possess enough repressive power to control any attempts at rebellion and violence, whereas full democratic systems allow for opposition participation without resorting to violence. Therefore, both full authoritarian and full democratic regimes are insulated from falling into civil wars. However, when the power of authoritarian regimes diminishes, or when democratic systems fail to uphold liberal values, the state becomes “anocratic,” which may increase the likelihood of civil strife and political instability.
Here, “anocracy” refers to states that lie in the middle, in a transitional phase between absolute and democratic rule, regardless of the direction of that transition. During this transitional period, most civil wars often arise, occurring at double the rate of fully authoritarian regimes and three times the rate of democracies. It is notable that the majority of the world’s countries, including the United States, can be considered “anocratic,” which may take one of two forms:
Transitioning from Authoritarianism to Democracy: The path from absolute rule to full democracy is “fraught with danger,” and nations often suffer from transitional chaos. The government in a democratic transition is typically weak compared to the outgoing authoritarian regime, whether politically, institutionally, or militarily. This government often grapples with internal divisions, widespread uncertainty, and a lack of trust in new authorities. Numerous examples exist where democratic transitions have led to an environment conducive to escalating civil wars among competing political, religious, and ethnic factions. For instance, shortly after the collapse of Saddam Hussein’s regime in Iraq in 2003, Iraqis rushed to join armed sectarian factions, plunging the country into civil war. Moreover, the largest ongoing civil wars, such as those in Libya, Syria, and Yemen, began amidst attempts to transition to democracy.
Transitioning from Democracy to Authoritarianism: A number of stable democratic countries have begun to move in the opposite direction, experiencing a decline in their political system index. Approximately 25 democratic nations, including Brazil, India, and the United States, have been affected by a wave of international authoritarianism. Certain democratic leaders have begun to entrench authoritarian governance after coming to power through elections, prioritizing their political goals over the demands of sound democracy, and alleging that democracy leads to failure and corruption. They have garnered citizen support by exploiting fears around jobs, immigration, and security. Anocracy, especially if the regime leans more toward democracy than authoritarianism, allows citizens to bear arms and resort to fighting. It is important to note that the decline of liberal democracies is a new phenomenon, and none have yet slid into full-scale civil war.
Conflict and “Diminishment”
The author observes that civil wars increasingly reflect ethnic and religious divisions; however, ethnic diversity does not necessarily drive a state towards war. The issue lies in the connection of that diversity to power. Political parties within the state often form based on ethnic or religious identity rather than ideology, seeking to gain power at the expense of others, thus monopolizing state resources and sidelining competing factions. Such parties/factions are often inflexible, unwilling to compromise, and closely matched in strength, creating opportunities for fierce competition. Examples of states characterized by competing factions include Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria, alongside the Serbian leader Slobodan Milošević, who deliberately inflamed ethnic and religious tensions among the peoples of the former Yugoslavia.
The faction that incites civil war is often the one that is at risk of losing power or has recently lost it; seeing no other way to secure its position, it exploits divisions to try to reassert control, often by nurturing identity-based nationalism to incite violence and chaos. They use their media outlets to convince their supporters that they “deserve” power. The author notes that the incitement of identity-based division is not limited to political elites; business leaders, religious figures, and media personalities can also engage in this behavior. All of them are at risk of losing their standing and gains during shifts in the dominant elite, thus exploiting ethnical rifts to serve their interests.
Competing factions may resort to violence when they feel excluded from the political process, meaning they can no longer access government positions, particularly if they belong to a formerly dominant elite that has lost its status and influence due to peaceful or violent political changes, a phenomenon referred to as “diminishment.” The loss of political and cultural standing feels like a “reversal of fortune” for factions, not merely a political defeat, intensifying conflict in the region. Consequently, “diminishment” may help explain the outbreak of civil wars in places like Yugoslavia, the Philippines, and Iraq. For instance, when the Serbs, the Moro people, and Sunnis felt they were diminished, they turned to violence as a way to compensate for their losses.
Loss of Hope Amidst Deception
Citizens may endure years of discrimination and poverty, but they will not tolerate losing hope for the future. Some believe that violence may be the only remaining alternative for achieving progress and positive change. For example, Catholics in Northern Ireland lost hope for peaceful reform when British soldiers treated them as intruders on their land. When factions lose faith in the current system, extremists often step in to offer an alternative. In Northern Ireland, the Provisional Irish Republican Army was such an alternative.
The author notes that the majority of civil wars may be preceded by failed protests, elections, or natural disasters that lead citizens to lose hope and lean towards violence. Protests reflect a rising sense of discontent and rejection of the current state of affairs; when protests fail to achieve their goals, the opportunity arises for civil war, as seen in Yemen and Syria. Elections can also destabilize a nation if power and influence are monopolized by the winner alone, encouraging politicians to exploit “ethnic cards” in propaganda to deepen divisions. Natural disasters, especially when they occur repeatedly, can expose government incompetence and corruption, pushing citizens towards violence against it.
The author suggests that there is a correlation between the decline of democracy worldwide and the spread of social media, noting that the latter is one of the significant drivers of recent civil wars, as it has significantly facilitated faction leaders in mobilizing and exacerbating situations. For the first time, social media has provided an information environment for conspiracy theorists, trolls, demagogues, and anti-democratic figures to spread false or misleading information and hateful rhetoric. It is noted that as social media has infiltrated nations, the intensity of ethnic, social, religious, and geographical divisions has increased, leading to the growth of factions and a rise in violence. For example, Facebook admitted in 2018 that it contributed to community violence in Myanmar.
Social media has intensified the perpetual feeling of crisis, as misinformation propagated by extremists tarnishes the reputations of peaceful protesters and creates a false sense that moderates are not doing enough to protect the populace, or that they are ineffective and weak compared to violent opposition. At this stage, violence erupts when citizens become convinced that there is no hope of resolving their issues through conventional peaceful means.
The Situation in the United States
The author utilized the previous variables to assess the American situation and illustrate how close the country is to civil war, particularly during the presidency of Donald Trump, whom she referred to as “the biggest racial businessman ever.” She concluded the following:
The United States has become an “anocratic” state for the first time since 1800, according to the “Polity Project” measure—an index that assesses the governance of approximately 167 countries based on annual scores quantifying periods characterized by factions, important changes in the political system, revolutions, successful military coups, and others. During Trump’s tenure, he began to expand his powers, in addition to revealing a systematic online campaign by Russian agents to interfere in the 2016 presidential elections, impacting trust in elections by undermining mail-in voting.
In 2016, the United States fell to a level of 3, within the danger zone of the “factionalization” scale, especially as Trump’s policy encouraged racial and religious factions by focusing on the grievances of the white evangelical working class, evident in his slogan, “Make America Great Again.” Violent right-wing groups increased during Trump’s administration.
White resentment over Black gains during former President Obama’s administration and the sense of “diminishment” contributed to Trump’s election in 2016. The Capitol building breach in 2021 revealed that white right-wing citizens were not only dissatisfied with their situation but believed the current system was against them.
Far-right extremists lost hope for progress through peaceful means such as marches and electing right-wing politicians; thus, they hastened their change through violence, aiming for ethnic cleansing, leading to the formation of groups like Atomwaffen Division (AWD).
Social media creates a gateway for anti-democratic forces to easily infiltrate society and destabilize it from within. Facebook and Twitter have played roles in exacerbating divisions in the United States and promoting misinformation and propaganda for competing factions.
The author painted a dystopian hypothetical scenario warning of an American civil war in 2028, involving explosions, acts of violence, and assassinations; however, she also ruled out the likelihood of such a conflict due to the strength of the American state and the persistence of leftist tendencies among some citizens.
Walter concludes the book by stating that the United States may be fortunate that “its first modern authoritarian president was not intelligent and lacked political experience.” Nevertheless, the country must work on neutralizing emergent rebellion by reforming the deteriorating government through strengthening the rule of law, holding the government accountable, eliminating corruption, renewing commitment to meeting the needs of its most vulnerable citizens, imposing federal electoral laws, re-examining the electoral community, and regulating all types of industries like utilities, pharmaceutical companies, and food processing factories to enhance the common good. Finally, it is crucial to add alternative social media platforms and ensure they are not misused.
Source:
Barbara F. Walter (2022). How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them. New York: Crown Publishing Group.
