The document known as the “Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence” is one of the most significant texts reflecting the Russian leadership’s stance on the use of nuclear weapons and deterrence concepts. It represents a substantial update to Russian nuclear deterrent policy, adapting to major changes in the international arena as well as military and technological developments.
This update comes amid a tense global climate characterized by increasing competition among major powers, complicated military alliances, and the emergence of unconventional threats. Nuclear weapons and deterrence have become vital components of Russia’s defensive strategy, especially in light of the growing threats it faces along its western and southern borders, and the ongoing expansion of NATO’s military infrastructure near its territory. The update to the Russian nuclear doctrine for 2024 underscores the leadership’s commitment to reaffirm its defensive posture and to establish its nuclear deterrence as a means of safeguarding national security against potential threats.
The updated nuclear doctrine addresses the conditions and circumstances under which nuclear weapons might be employed, clearly defining the scenarios in which Moscow deems it necessary to resort to nuclear force. Among these scenarios are a nuclear attack on Russia or its allies, or a direct threat to its sovereignty or existence. The document emphasizes that nuclear deterrence is not limited to direct attacks but also encompasses the use of other weapons of mass destruction or attacks targeting critical infrastructure affecting the nation’s defensive capabilities.
This doctrine serves as a strong signal to the international community regarding the nature of Russian defense policies and reaffirms Russia’s commitment to protecting its sovereignty and vital interests against any threats. The timing of the release of this doctrine aligns with complex international transformations, including regional conflicts and a renewed arms race, making it essential for the doctrine to be clear and updated to align with current circumstances.
Based on the significant changes in the Russian nuclear doctrine, examining the motivations behind these updates, as well as the challenges Moscow aims to address through these policies, will provide a deeper understanding of Russia’s strategic position and goals in the field of nuclear deterrence, in addition to studying the implications for international stability and global nuclear policies.
Historical Development of Russian Military Doctrine
Russian military doctrine began to take shape following the collapse of the Soviet Union, as Russia faced new challenges in the regional and international security environment. The first military doctrine of independent Russia was adopted in 1993, aiming to redefine national and security interests after losing control over the former Soviet republics. This doctrine focused on addressing threats arising from regional conflicts and the repercussions of the Soviet Union’s collapse, emphasizing the defense of Russia’s new borders.
In 2000, under President Vladimir Putin, Russia adopted a new military doctrine that emphasized strengthening nuclear deterrence as a key component of national defense strategy. Nuclear weapons were viewed as vital for ensuring Russian national security and preventing aggression, asserting their use as a means of deterrence against any threats faced by Russia and its allies. This update coincided with growing tensions between Russia and NATO, as Russia began to perceive NATO’s expansion as a major threat to its security.
In 2010, the Russian military doctrine underwent another update under President Dmitry Medvedev. This update focused on unconventional threats, including international terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, reaffirming the role of nuclear weapons in maintaining strategic stability. In 2014, a new update to military doctrine was made in response to the Ukrainian crisis and the annexation of Crimea, which emphasized nuclear deterrence in the face of Western threats, with Russia becoming clearer in defining scenarios for nuclear weapon use.
In June 2020, President Vladimir Putin issued the decree “Fundamentals of State Policy in the Field of Nuclear Deterrence,” which became a separate document from the military doctrine. This document provided precise details about the circumstances under which Russia might resort to nuclear weapons, including responses to any attack using weapons of mass destruction or any threat to state survival. This update aimed to grant Russia greater flexibility in utilizing its nuclear arsenal amid rising tensions with the West and escalating arms competition.
New Updates in the 2024 Nuclear Doctrine
The new version of the 2024 nuclear doctrine includes significant changes in defining the circumstances under which Russia might employ nuclear weapons, in the context of escalating global tensions. Notable updates include:
- Definition of Joint Aggression: Russia now considers aggression from a non-nuclear state, if supported by a nuclear state, as “joint aggression,” expanding the conditions that may warrant nuclear weapon use.
- Military Alliances as Legitimate Targets: In the event of aggression by a state belonging to a military alliance, Russia will view this attack as an aggression against the entire alliance, broadening the scope of potential responses.
- Identification of Military Threats: The new doctrine highlights threats that may necessitate nuclear deterrence, such as potential adversaries possessing weapons of mass destruction, missile defense systems, medium and short-range missiles, precision weapons, and hypersonic technology.
- Space Weapons: Russia considers the establishment of missile defense and anti-satellite systems in space as a threat, with this point added to reflect developments in modern technologies.
Strategic Implications of the New Updates
The update to the Russian nuclear doctrine for 2024 reflects a shift in Russia’s position on the use of nuclear weapons from a purely defensive tool to an instrument for achieving political goals and deterring new threats. This update indicates that Russia is increasingly prepared to use nuclear weapons in unconventional scenarios, such as non-nuclear attacks that may receive support from nuclear powers or the deployment of weapons in space.
The timing of this update follows the United States’ provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine, suggesting that Russia perceives this step as a direct threat to its national security.
Conclusions
The recent updates to the Russian nuclear doctrine for 2024 have emerged as a reaction to rapid geopolitical transformations and the increasing security threats Moscow faces. These updates expand the potential use of nuclear weapons to include cases of unconventional aggression and support received by certain non-nuclear states from major nuclear powers. This shift reflects Russia’s desire to maintain national security and flexibility in confronting various threatening scenarios.
The evolution of the Russian nuclear doctrine over the years demonstrates a transition from viewing nuclear weapons as merely a defensive mechanism to considering them as tools to achieve strategic political objectives. In the context of tensions with NATO, particularly following NATO’s eastward expansion, Russia seeks to enhance its defensive and deterrent posture by clarifying the scenarios in which it may utilize its nuclear arsenal.
Among the prominent features of the updated nuclear doctrine are the inclusion of emerging threats from the use of both conventional and modern weapons of mass destruction, as well as threats related to space-based weaponry, highlighting the evolution of security threats facing Russia in the twenty-first century. This new doctrine underscores the strategic importance of nuclear weapons as a crucial factor in preventing aggression and ensuring stability.
The issuance of this doctrine occurs within a tense international context, as competition between major powers heightens, including tensions with the United States, which has provided advanced weaponry to Ukraine. Through this update, Russia sends a clear message that any threat to its national security, whether nuclear or not, will be met with a strong response, reinforcing the notion that nuclear deterrence extends beyond direct attacks to encompass all forms of strategic threats. Thus, this doctrine remains a vital tool for maintaining internal stability and addressing external challenges, signaling a shift in how Russia perceives the use of nuclear power, reflecting new trends in Russian military strategy, and affirming Moscow’s readiness to respond decisively to any threat to its sovereignty or vital interests. Moreover, this update adds complexity to the international landscape, making discussions of nuclear disarmament more challenging in the near future.
