The year 2024 witnessed the release of three significant books that examine U.S.-China relations from various perspectives, offering multiple insights to analyze the assumptions of this new Cold War, its scope, and trajectory. The three books are:
- A New Cold War: US–China Relations in the 21st Century by Zeno Leoni.
- US-China Relations and the New Cold War: A Global Power Struggle in the 21st Century by Gordon Foner.
- World on the Brink: How America Can Beat China in the Race for the Twenty-First Century by Dmitri Alperovitch and Garrett M. Graff.
All three books agree that the Cold War between China and the United States will be less violent and more intertwined with technology and the economy. However, their analyses differ regarding how successful either power will be in surpassing the other. While Leoni focuses on the continuity of traditional competition, Foner presents a multidimensional view of this confrontation, and Alperovitch and Graff prioritize technology as a critical factor in this war.
Zeno Leoni, in his book A New Cold War, emphasizes the similarities between the new Cold War and that which occurred between the United States and the Soviet Union, viewing U.S.-China relations as a confrontation along ideological and economic lines. However, Leoni points to a fundamental difference in the nature of this confrontation, as it relies less on a nuclear arms race and more on technology and the digital economy. He argues that the new Cold War is not about the idea of “mutually assured destruction” but rather about competing for dominance in the global order.
Gordon Foner offers a broader perspective in his book US-China Relations and the New Cold War, focusing on the global dynamics of the confrontation between the two powers. He emphasizes that this Cold War is not limited to a bilateral conflict; it also impacts third-world countries and international institutions. He highlights that U.S. traditional alliances face new challenges as power dynamics shift, with China seeking to bolster its position through initiatives like the “Belt and Road Initiative.”
Meanwhile, Dmitri Alperovitch and Garrett Graff, in their book World on the Brink, primarily focus on the issue of technological supremacy as central to the confrontation. They argue that artificial intelligence, microchips, and innovation in space are the main fronts of this new Cold War. The authors believe that technological dominance will determine who leads the 21st century and propose a strategy for the United States to outpace China through massive investments in research and development.
The Field and Path of War:
- Geographical Scope: The new Cold War is not confined to a specific theater as the previous Cold War was. This confrontation encompasses geopolitical and economic dimensions that reach nearly every corner of the globe, with particular emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region, Africa, and Latin America.
- Means Used: Rather than focusing on direct military power, the new Cold War relies on economic and technological tools. China aims to enhance its strength through international infrastructure projects and technological innovation, while the United States relies on its continued control of the global financial system and strategic alliances.
- Differences from the Previous Cold War: The earlier Cold War centered around the ideology of communism versus capitalism, while the current conflict is less ideological and more pragmatic. Additionally, the Soviet Union was economically weak compared to China today, which possesses enormous economic capabilities that make it a more complex competitor.
