Repercussions of the Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump’s Electoral Prospects
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump was shot at during an election rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, on July 13, 2024. The FBI has deemed it an assassination attempt. This attack is the first on a U.S. president or presidential candidate since the attempted assassination of former Republican President Ronald Reagan in 1981. The attempt on Trump’s life occurred just two days before the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee on July 15, 2024, where he is expected to be officially nominated to represent the party in the upcoming presidential election on November 5, 2024. The incident is anticipated to reshape the election dynamics.
Multiple Repercussions
The failed assassination attempt on the former U.S. President raises several repercussions, coming approximately four months before American voters cast their ballots to choose the next president. The major repercussions include:
Raising Questions About Security for the Republican Candidate: The attempt on Trump’s life has raised questions among Republicans and his voter base about the security failures by the Secret Service, which is responsible for protecting former U.S. presidents for life. House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer has stated plans to hold hearings on the incident, although there is a division among Republicans on whether to blame the Secret Service for allowing the attacker to shoot Trump or to wait for the official investigation’s findings.
Increased Concerns About Rising Political Violence Before the Election: The assassination attempt heightens existing concerns within American political circles about the potential rise in political violence during the election campaigns, especially given a significant portion of Republican voters reject the criminal charges against the former president. This fear is also influenced by the prospect of post-election violence similar to the events of January 6, 2021, if Trump loses the election and claims it was stolen from him, as he did after losing the November 2020 presidential election. The increasing political and partisan polarization between Democrats and Republicans further exacerbates these concerns. Polls indicate a significant fear among American voters about rising political violence. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in May 2024 showed that two out of three Americans are worried about violence following the November presidential election.
Escalation of Political Exploitation of the Shooting Incident: Following the assassination attempt, many Republican Party members shared images of Trump with his right ear covered in blood, raising his fist in the air, to promote conspiracy theories and stir political tensions. Extremists from both the left and the right have spread misinformation and lies on social media, potentially encouraging more violence and extremism. This has intensified discussions about the likelihood of civil war and measures to prevent it.
Supporting President Biden’s Efforts to Impose Gun Control: Many Republican lawmakers oppose Democratic administrations’ and legislators’ efforts to impose restrictions on the constitutional right to bear arms by expanding background checks to all gun sales. They view such restrictions as infringing on the Second Amendment. However, the assassination attempt on the former Republican president will bolster President Biden’s and Democratic lawmakers’ efforts in Congress to impose gun control measures.
Increasing Challenges for Democrats Before the Upcoming Election: The shooting incident involving the former president comes at a time when the Democratic Party is debating Biden’s continued candidacy for the presidential election, especially after his disastrous performance in the first presidential debate against Trump, which highlighted Biden’s age-related difficulties. This has sparked questions about whether Biden is the best candidate to defeat Trump on November 5, strengthen the Democratic majority in the Senate, and regain the House majority. This is especially relevant as Trump leads Biden in most polls. Although the incident may divert media and voter attention from Biden’s performance and missteps, it will become a major media topic, leading to intense coverage and continuous analysis, potentially boosting Trump’s popularity by portraying him as a victim of Democratic rhetoric inciting violence, as promoted by many Republicans. Biden’s campaign may need to adjust its election tactics to focus more on national security and stability, which could affect its electoral messaging and strategic plans that previously emphasized Democratic administration achievements and Biden’s ability to revive alliances undermined by Trump during his four years in office. The Biden campaign may also need to scale back on portraying a Trump victory as a threat to American democracy.
Trump’s Chances
Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Republicans are leveraging the assassination attempt to enhance his chances of winning the upcoming presidential election. The incident will have several positive impacts favoring the Republican candidate, including:
Facilitating Trump’s Chances of Winning the Upcoming Presidential Election: As Democrats struggle to secure the presidency following Biden’s disastrous performance in the first presidential debate on June 27, 2024, and doubts about their ability to maintain their slim majority in the Senate, many Republicans believe that the assassination attempt on the former Republican president eases his path to winning the presidency on November 5, 2024, and the Republican control of both Congressional chambers (the House and the Senate). The incident is expected to mobilize the Republican voter base to turn out in November and increase the number of independent voters who will vote for the Republican candidate.
Halting Democrats’ Criticism of Trump: The assassination attempt has led Democrats, who were united in criticizing Trump over the past two weeks to divert attention from Biden’s disastrous debate performance, to stop attacking Trump and stop promoting that a second term for Trump would end American democracy. Following the attack, many Democrats who had criticized Trump, including Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Hakeem Jeffries, and Chuck Schumer, issued statements condemning the violence and expressing sympathy for Trump. Democrats have since become more cautious in criticizing Trump following the assassination attempt.
Pressuring Biden to Drop Criminal Charges Against Trump: Republican Senators Mike Lee and Robert O’Brien, former National Security Advisor in the Trump administration, issued a statement calling on Joe Biden to order federal prosecutors to drop federal criminal charges against the Republican candidate and ask the governors of New York and Georgia to do the same to calm the escalating political violence in the United States, which has increased following the legal crises facing the Republican candidate.
Accusing Biden and the Democrats of Being Behind the Incident: Several Republican lawmakers accused the Biden administration of being behind the attack on the former president through their rhetoric that incites political violence among Americans. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene stated on the platform X that “Democrats are responsible for every drop of blood spilled today. For years, they have defamed him and his supporters.” Hours after the incident, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise issued a statement saying, “The far left has acted on past violent rhetoric. This incitement must stop.”
Boosting Trump’s Lead in Polls: Several national opinion polls reveal that former U.S. President Donald Trump, after the first presidential debate and Biden’s disastrous performance, leads Biden in crucial swing states that determine the presidential election winner. It is expected that following the assassination attempt, Trump’s lead over Biden will increase, making him the frontrunner for the upcoming presidential election.
Consecutive Shocks
While the United States is still trying to recover from the events of January 6, 2021, and the attempts by Trump supporters to prevent Congress from certifying Joe Biden’s victory following Trump’s claims that the previous election was stolen from him, the country is suffering from a series of shocks. These include the ousting of the House Speaker, Trump’s indictment in four criminal cases, and yet he is poised to win his party’s nomination to return to the White House amidst an aging president struggling with communication and mental health issues but determined to run in the upcoming presidential election. This scenario is likely to increase waves of political violence during and after the elections due to many Americans’ frustration—according to numerous polls—with American politicians and their internal and external policies.
