Contrary to polling predictions prior to the 2024 U.S. elections, which indicated a close race between the candidates vying for the White House, with a potential victory by a narrow margin, Donald Trump achieved a more significant success than expected against his Democratic rival Kamala Harris. Trump not only won the Electoral College votes but also secured the popular vote, surpassing his success in the 2016 elections (even though he won in 2016, the Democratic candidate at that time, Hillary Clinton, had a lead in the popular vote).
By returning to the White House, Trump becomes the first U.S. president since Grover Cleveland, who served in the 19th century, to win two non-consecutive presidential terms (the 22nd and 24th). He also becomes the oldest president to be elected. Trump arrives at the White House while he is facing criminal charges, with other criminal cases still pending, in addition to the criticism directed at him following the Capitol riot by his supporters in objection to the 2020 election results. Republican successes extended beyond the presidential race to Congress, where they secured a majority in the Senate and are on track to also hold a majority in the House of Representatives.
For the coming years, political and international relations theorists will be keen to analyze the results of the 2024 elections in light of the shifts in the American political, party, and social landscape, placing it within a broader context regarding the challenges facing democratic systems and the implications of the election outcomes for the future of the global liberal order. This article aims to provide an analysis of the U.S. election results, the reasons for Trump’s and the Republicans’ victory, and the consequences thereof.
Shifts in Voting Trends:
An initial reading of the results of the U.S. presidential election indicates notable shifts in voter trends, as follows:
Trump’s Increased Share of Votes in Most States: According to the Financial Times, Trump successfully increased his share of votes in every U.S. state except Utah and Washington, compared to the 2020 elections. In addition to winning traditional Republican strongholds, Trump won in the seven battleground states that were critical in this election: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Some of these states have historically voted for Democrats, earning them the label of “blue wall” states. Trump also narrowed the gap between himself and Harris in traditional Democratic bastions like New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey, and he increased his share of votes from urban and metropolitan areas, which have long been a base for the Democratic Party, especially as rural areas shifted rightward.
Shifts in Voting Patterns Among Latino and African American Americans, Men, and Youth: Latino and African Americans represent a major base for the Democratic Party, but the current election results suggest that the identity politics and racial determinism relied upon by the party are faltering. Trump made significant inroads among Latino and African American voters, especially among men. Unlike the 2020 elections, where Biden had a 23-point lead among Latino voters, Trump managed to win their votes for the first time. Some believe that Trump has expanded his voter base by creating a multi-ethnic working-class coalition that transcends the white working class, which has been the core electoral base of the Republican Party.
The shifts in voting behavior extended to youth, particularly young men. Over the past two decades, voters under 30 heavily favored Democratic candidates, but Trump was able to increase the percentage of young voters supporting him from 35% in 2020 to 42% this year, with the percentage even higher among young white voters and those without college degrees.
Emergence of Gender Divides: By focusing on issues of abortion and reproductive rights, Harris aimed to boost her share of women’s votes, yet the share of women voting for her increased only marginally from 2020, failing to surpass Biden’s performance among women in the previous election. In contrast, Trump succeeded in raising his share of votes among men across various demographic groups, as polls indicated that a third of Trump supporters believed that women had gained at the expense of men, with this sentiment being even more pronounced among younger men.
Reasons for Trump’s Victory:
The reasons behind Trump’s victory in the current election are manifold, and examining them also requires an analysis of the defeat of Harris and the Democrats. Here is a preliminary reading of these reasons by distinguishing between three levels: the issues, the electoral tactics, and the structural changes occurring within the American system:
Stance on Key Issues: Trump capitalized on the discontent of significant segments regarding the Biden administration’s handling of various issues, particularly inflation and immigration, while Harris struggled to distance herself from Biden’s heavy legacy and to offer alternative visions and policies. Some key issues include:
A. Economy and Inflation: The recent elections reaffirmed the continuing significance of the economy as a determinant of American voter behavior, whether leaning right or left. Contrary to the Democrats’ assertions about improvements in economic indicators, particularly GDP growth rates and employment levels, around two-thirds of voters – according to some polls – believed that the American economy was in poor shape due to rising inflation, which has eroded family incomes and purchasing power. The dissatisfaction with Biden’s handling of the economy affected most demographic groups relatively uniformly. Trump’s campaign capitalized on this dissatisfaction and attacked the Biden administration, even suggesting financial incentives such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and social security for the elderly.
B. Immigration: Immigration is a significant issue for a section of American voters, and Trump promoted a narrative linking the influx of migrants across the southern U.S. border with declining economic conditions, rising crime, and a changing way of life. He also positioned himself as capable of tackling immigration and enhancing security, in contrast to the Biden administration that experienced increased immigration flows.
C. Future of Democracy: One of the main features of Harris’s campaign was the framing of Trump’s return to the White House as a danger and threat to democratic institutions. For instance, she referred to the “Project 2025” issued by the Heritage Foundation, which seeks to reshape the federal government, a claim Trump denied any knowledge of. Harris also labeled Trump a “fascist,” contending that he jeopardizes the rule of law and more. However, this framing was not new enough to sway undecided voters and faced counter-accusations from Republicans that the Democratic Party itself posed a threat to democracy.
D. Abortion and Reproductive Rights: Harris focused her campaign on the issues of abortion and reproductive rights, attempting to rally women to vote for her; however, as previously noted, her share of the women’s vote did not exceed what Biden achieved in 2020. The current election results showed that such issues were less significant than economic factors in mobilizing voters.
Ultimately, Trump’s focus on the economy and immigration resonated sufficiently with a large number of Americans, more so than the warning message Harris directed about a return of Trump.
Electoral Tactics: Trump successfully reached traditionally Democratic-leaning circles, such as Latino and African American voters, young people, union members, and others. He also utilized traditional media, such as talk shows, and non-traditional media, like podcasts and others, to reach voters.
In contrast, Harris’s campaign faced numerous challenges from the outset. Biden’s delayed announcement of his withdrawal from the race limited Harris’s campaign period, in addition to the declining popularity of the Biden administration, which burdened her electoral campaign. Harris’s tactical choices compounded her difficulties, as follows:
A. Failure to Distinguish from Biden’s Administration: Harris could not separate herself from Biden’s administration as vice president. In early October, when asked what she would have done differently from Biden, she could not provide an answer, acknowledging that she was part of the majority of impactful decisions.
B. Focusing on Trump without a Clear Vision: Harris centered her campaign on criticisms of Trump, lacking the ability to articulate a vision for the future of the United States or to present alternative policies to those offered by Biden. Some dubbed her as a “candidate with no comment.”
C. Abandoning Progressive Agenda: By abandoning the progressive agenda and seeking to appeal to centrist voters and Republicans opposed to Trump, Harris lost the core grassroots support of the Democratic Party, including young, Arab, Muslim voters, and others. She did not address the concerns of the youth regarding economic issues and rising living costs, for example.
D. Questionable Vice Presidential Choice: Some believe that Harris’s selection of Tim Walz as a running mate was misguided and did not help her attract additional voters.
Structural Changes in the American System: Among these changes are the following:
A. Most polls have shown an increasing dissatisfaction with the status quo in the United States, where many Americans feel that the country is heading in the wrong direction.
B. The Democratic Party is experiencing a more profound crisis than simply those affecting Harris’s and Biden’s campaigns, having lost touch with the white working class, and gradually losing its electoral base among Latino and African Americans, youth, and others, as well as its base in urban areas and cities. Therefore, the Democratic Party is struggling with an identity crisis and needs a vision for its future. Some contextualize this within a broader issue facing left-wing parties amidst the rise of populist far-right movements and their inability to confront them.
C. Some interpret the election outcomes in light of the changes in American society, including declining levels of social trust and the erosion of labor unions and civil society organizations that have historically supported American democracy.
Domestic and International Implications:
Trump’s victory will undoubtedly have implications for domestic U.S. politics, especially with the Republican Party controlling Congress in both chambers, significantly empowering Trump to approve his appointments and pass his decisions without obstruction.
The ramifications of the current election results extend beyond U.S. domestic politics and raise numerous questions about the future of American foreign policy under Trump’s potentially isolationist stance, his skepticism toward the viability of the Atlantic alliance, his turn towards trade protectionism, and his positions on China and the Russian war in Ukraine. Furthermore, there is uncertainty regarding his stance on the Israeli war against Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the current unrest in the Middle East. During his campaign, he promised to end the violence and restore peace to the region, albeit without providing any details, while simultaneously emphasizing the need to allow Israel to accomplish what he termed “finishing the job” in Gaza, opening the door for various interpretations and raising many questions.
