Russia appears to be on the verge of modifying its policy toward Syria following the takeover of power in Damascus by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the Syrian National Army, and other Syrian factions after the ousting of the former President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024. A high-level Russian delegation arrived in Syria on January 28, 2025, marking the first visit since the fall of Assad’s regime, consisting of Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov, who oversees Middle Eastern affairs, and the Russian President’s special envoy to Syria, Alexander Lavrentiev. The delegation met with the Supreme Commander of the Syrian administration, Ahmad al-Shara, and Foreign Minister Assad al-Shibani, primarily discussing issues of interest to Moscow and Damascus, including military and economic cooperation.
Main Objectives
The key objectives of the Russian delegation’s visit to Damascus, following the fall of Assad’s regime, include:
Negotiating the Continuation of Military Bases: Russia has established a strong military presence in Damascus through two main bases: the naval base in Tartus on the Mediterranean, dating back to the Soviet era, and the Hmeimeem air base near Latakia, set up by Moscow in 2015 to support Assad’s regime. Moscow also has other military sites scattered across Syria. The potential closure of these bases would severely hinder Russia’s ambitions to maintain a permanent military foothold in the Middle East and enhance its influence in the Mediterranean. Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned on December 19, 2024, the need to reassess Moscow’s stance on these bases given the change in Syrian leadership. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov previously clarified on December 29, 2024, that the political changes in Syria would affect the Russian military presence, indicating that Moscow would seek negotiations with the new Syrian leadership regarding the future of the military bases, operational terms, and the extent of cooperation with local authorities. In addition to maintaining its military bases in Syria to counter claims of a strategic defeat in the Middle East following Assad’s ousting, Bogdanov announced that Moscow preserves its military installations due to their crucial role in the international fight against terrorism, noting on December 13, 2024, that ISIS still maintains a presence in Syria, requiring collective efforts for its confrontation.
Maintaining Strategic Relations between Moscow and Damascus: Despite the Russian delegation’s visit occurring amid significant shifts in the Syrian landscape, following the overthrow of Assad by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the Syrian National Army after years of conflict with his Moscow-backed forces, the new Syrian leaders expressed a willingness to maintain strategic ties with Russia, due to historical links and shared geopolitical interests. Ahmad al-Shara described Russia as an “important state” in a television interview on December 29, 2024. Al-Shara stated that he does not want Moscow to leave Damascus “in the manner some hope for.” He emphasized the importance of cooperation with Russia, noting its significant role in Syria and mentioning that the new Syrian administration aims to uphold mutual interests with Moscow, particularly relying on Russia for arms procurement and managing vital infrastructure, such as power stations. Bogdanov confirmed that the visit aims to strengthen the historical ties between Russia and Syria based on shared interests, highlighting Russia’s commitment to the unity, independence, and territorial integrity of Syria.
Continued Bilateral Economic Cooperation: Economic issues are a priority in the Russian delegation’s visit to Syria and its meetings with the new Syrian government’s officials to discuss economic matters and prospects for cooperation between Moscow and Damascus. This includes the status of Russian companies that had secured investment contracts in Syria before the fall of the Assad regime. A major investment agreement in the Tartus port, signed between the Syrian government and a private Russian company in 2019, was canceled, raising concerns about the future of Russian economic activities in the country, especially as some major Russian companies had obtained massive contracts in phosphate extraction, oil exploration, and many other projects. There is potential for developing new joint projects that enhance cooperation between Moscow and Damascus, particularly in energy and infrastructure. Russia hopes to leverage its military bases in the Mediterranean to facilitate humanitarian and economic aid to Syria. Russian officials have noted the importance of collaborating on developing Syrian infrastructure, having built many vital facilities with the former Soviet Union’s help and currently with Russia’s assistance. This cooperation may entail future updates to existing facilities or the construction of new ones to support the Syrian economy, as Damascus faces a crippling economic crisis. Internal and external pressures could affect the new government’s ability to implement substantial economic projects, prompting the new Syrian administration to avoid causing issues with international powers, particularly Russia.
Participation in Defining the Future of Political Transformations in Syria: With various regional and international powers actively engaging in shaping Syria’s future and opening dialogues with the leadership of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, which leads the new Syrian government despite some countries classifying it as a terrorist organization, Russia aims to affirm its approach to crisis states in the Middle East during its delegation’s visit to Damascus. This approach is predicated on continuous support for state unity and territorial integrity along with sovereignty. Bogdanov mentioned that the situation Syria has faced in recent years, along with the fundamental change in Syrian leadership, will not alter Russia’s readiness to contribute to stabilizing the country and finding appropriate solutions to social, political, and economic issues.
Discussing Transitional Justice: The Russian delegation and Syrian officials discussed mechanisms for achieving “transitional justice” following the ousting of Kremlin ally, former President Bashar al-Assad, on December 8, 2024. The new Syrian administration emphasized the significance of addressing past wrongs and respecting the Syrian people’s will, indicating that transitional justice should be an essential part of efforts to rebuild trust between the government and citizens. Discussions focused on accountability mechanisms aimed at holding perpetrators of crimes committed during the conflict to account. The Russian side expressed its readiness to support these efforts, emphasizing the importance of cooperation between the two countries in the reconstruction phase following the crisis. In this context, it was underscored that transitional justice is not merely a legal issue but also a necessary step toward achieving social and political stability in Syria.
A Chronic Dilemma
Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, which Russia supported for nearly a decade, Moscow hopes to maintain its military and economic influence in Syria while the new Syrian leadership seeks to reassess some previous agreements to safeguard its national interests. The Syrian government is focusing on achieving stability and security rather than revenge, indicating it is unlikely to terminate the Russian military presence in Syria at this time. After the fall of Assad’s government, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham prevented any attacks on the two Russian bases in Tartus and Hmeimeem, establishing a security perimeter around them.
However, it is also unlikely that the interim government will reassure Moscow about the possibility of the Russian army remaining in Syria amid rising anti-Russian public sentiment, given Moscow’s support for Assad during the civil war and the Russian forces’ airstrikes targeting civilian facilities, such as hospitals and schools. This situation could compel Russia to reduce its military presence until Syria makes a definitive decision, which may not happen before the interim government establishes a constitutional and electoral timetable or formally appoints a transitional government.
Ending the Russian military presence in Syria would lead Moscow to search for alternative options, such as Libya, which would significantly shift its influence toward the African continent. Russia might seek to bolster its regional military influence by strengthening ties with Iran through advanced arms deals, such as the Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter jets, which Ali Shadmani, deputy coordinator of the Central Khatam al-Anbiya Headquarters, confirmed for the first time that Iran has purchased. These aircraft represent an emerging foundation for the comprehensive strategic partnership between Russia and Iran, signed on January 17, 2025, potentially imposing direct implications on ongoing interactions in the region, particularly amid persistent disputes between Russia and numerous regional and international powers concerning the developments in crisis states, especially Syria.
