Thailand stands on the brink of a new phase of political transformations that may lead to the dismissal of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who assumed office as the youngest Prime Minister in the country’s history in August 2024. This development comes as a direct consequence of the renewed cycle of border conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, which reignited on May 28 and escalated significantly on July 24, 2025. The escalation included exchanges of gunfire and air raids between the two countries. Thailand confirmed that one of its F-16 fighter jets bombed military targets inside Cambodian territory in retaliation for what it described as heavy artillery attacks by Cambodian forces on Thai military and civilian sites, including a hospital and a border base.
Sudden and Unusual Escalation
This new level of escalation raised fears that the conflict between the two countries might spiral into a large-scale war or open confrontation. Although such a scenario is still considered unlikely, the intensity of the clashes—unprecedented at this stage—prompted some to suggest that the confrontation might indeed reach that level. The trajectory of bilateral relations indicates that this escalation was both sudden and unexpected, especially in light of several key factors:
First, both countries have had the capacity to control the conflict and prevent it from spiraling out of control, at least over the past two decades. Since the major skirmishes between 2008 and 2011, the conflict remained stagnant without any sharp escalation, making it resemble a kind of “silent escalation.”
The second factor is the strong and growing relationship between the Shinawatra family in Thailand and the Hun Sen family in Cambodia, both of which hold the reins of power in their respective countries. This was evident when Hun Sen appointed former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra as an economic advisor to the Cambodian government in 2009. After Thaksin’s release from Thai prison in February 2024, Hun Sen visited him at his residence in Thailand and had previously described him as his “spiritual brother.” Thaksin served as Thailand’s Prime Minister from 2001 to 2006 and is the father of the currently suspended Prime Minister, Paetongtarn Shinawatra.
Just a month before the clashes erupted, Paetongtarn Shinawatra paid an official visit to Cambodia on April 24—the first since she took office—coinciding with the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between the two nations. The visit came with pledges to strengthen cooperation, reflecting the friendly nature of the relationship.
This is also consistent with the development of political and economic relations between the two countries in recent years. Politically, both nations agreed in February 2024 to elevate their bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership during a visit by Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet to Thailand. Economically, ties between them have grown significantly, with bilateral trade reaching approximately $4.3 billion in 2024 and commitments from both sides to increase it to $15 billion.
Given these factors, the friendly interactions and growing coordination between the two countries had been the dominant feature of their relations in recent times. This makes the current escalation—regarded as the most violent—surprising and atypical. In other words, the level of bilateral relations suggests that the current conflict may not have been anticipated by decision-makers in either country and was not a desired outcome.
A New Political Crisis in Thailand
Prime Minister Paetongtarn attempted to defuse the crisis and contain the escalation with Cambodia. On June 15, 2025, she made a phone call to former Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, who continues to wield considerable influence within his son Hun Manet’s government. Paetongtarn likely did not expect that her efforts to resolve the border dispute would backfire, sparking a domestic firestorm and rallying opposition and public opinion against her.
The phone call, in which she promised to do whatever was needed for the Cambodian leader and asked him not to “be upset or angry” over comments made by General Bunsen Padklang—Commander of Thailand’s Second Military Region—was leaked. The general had threatened Cambodia with a “duel” at the border, to which she responded by saying he simply wanted to appear strong but ended up saying things unhelpful to either country.
This leaked call triggered widespread controversy in Thailand and created a political crisis for the Prime Minister, summarized as follows:
1 – Legal Action Against the Prime Minister
The leaked call sparked a wave of outrage in Thailand, with some labeling it as betrayal and a violation of national interests. As a swift and expected response, opposition parties called on the Prime Minister to resign.
Although Paetongtarn attempted to mitigate the fallout with a public apology at a press conference on June 19, 36 members of the Senate filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court accusing her of ethical misconduct. On July 1, the court suspended her from performing her duties pending the investigation. Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Phumtham Wechayachai assumed the role of acting Prime Minister in accordance with the constitution, which allows the highest-ranking Deputy PM to take over in cases of dismissal, resignation, or suspension of the Prime Minister. Additionally, on July 14, the National Anti-Corruption Commission also launched an investigation into her for ethical violations and abuse of power.
2 – Growing Public Discontent
Alongside the legal proceedings, there was widespread public mobilization and large-scale protests demanding the Prime Minister’s removal from office and withdrawal from the political scene. On June 28, thousands from the United National Power Movement and the Yellow Shirts Movement gathered in the largest demonstrations seen in years to demand her resignation, accusing her of surrendering national sovereignty and cozying up to the Cambodian regime at the expense of Thailand’s military. Furthermore, opinion polls conducted after the leaked call revealed a sharp decline in her popularity and a rise in voices demanding her resignation and exclusion from politics.
3 – Fractures Within the Ruling Coalition
No political party won an outright majority in the May 2023 general elections for Thailand’s 500-seat House of Representatives. As a result, the Pheu Thai Party (Paetongtarn’s party), which secured 141 seats, formed a coalition government comprising 11 ideologically diverse parties.
This coalition is now under significant strain. Following the call’s leak, the Bhumjaithai Party (“Pride of Thailand”) withdrew from the coalition, shaking up the political scene. As the second-largest party in the coalition with 72 seats, its withdrawal leaves the government with a razor-thin majority of just 254 seats. The situation could worsen further if any additional coalition partners decide to leave.
Possible Outcomes of the Crisis
Political developments in Thailand over the coming days and weeks may lead to shifts in the current political equation due to the ongoing crisis. The potential scenarios include:
1 – Prime Minister Remains in Office
On July 15, Paetongtarn submitted a formal request to the Constitutional Court for 15 days to prepare her defense. A ruling is expected by July 31. This scenario assumes that she will successfully defend herself and be cleared by the court, allowing her to return to power.
Although a court ruling in her favor is unlikely, historical precedent exists. In September 2022, the Constitutional Court reinstated Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha after a five-week suspension over accusations of exceeding his constitutional term limit. The court ruled that he had not surpassed the eight-year limit.
While the context and details of the cases differ, this shows the court may reverse decisions. Even if Paetongtarn is cleared, her political legitimacy and public support are unlikely to recover due to extreme polarization and dwindling popularity. The ruling coalition would also remain fragile and vulnerable to collapse if any more parties withdraw—especially given the ideological rifts within it.
2 – Dismissal of the Prime Minister
This scenario assumes the Constitutional Court will convict Paetongtarn and remove her from office, holding her politically accountable for the leaked call. While she would be ousted, her party (Pheu Thai) and the rest of the coalition could remain in power. The coalition may then nominate another candidate for Prime Minister, allowing the government to continue without triggering early elections.
In this case, members of the House of Representatives would vote for a new Prime Minister, requiring 251 votes. If consensus cannot be reached, parliament would be dissolved and early elections called within 60 days.
3 – Military Intervention
The current developments could bring the military back into Thailand’s political equation. This becomes more likely if the crisis deepens between the ruling coalition and the opposition, leading to a political stalemate. Some voices have already called for the military to step in, especially as it enjoys popular support for its handling of the border tensions with Cambodia. Furthermore, two parties within the current coalition have military backgrounds.
In any case, the military’s potential role cannot be ruled out. It has been a powerful and active political force in Thailand for decades. Since 1932, the country has witnessed 12 coups, the most recent being in 2006 and 2014.
Conclusion:
The most likely outcome appears to be the departure of Prime Minister Paetongtarn—either through a Constitutional Court ruling or the collapse of the ruling coalition following the Cambodia crisis. In either case, the Shinawatra family’s long-standing political influence is expected to significantly decline. The family has been a central force in Thai politics for two decades, beginning with Thaksin Shinawatra’s premiership in 2001, followed by his sister Yingluck Shinawatra (2011–2014), and most recently, his daughter Paetongtarn, who took office on August 16, 2024.
