In his book titled “Paths of Power,” Frédéric Encel revisits geopolitical thinking in the 21st century, addressing the avenues leading to power, the criteria that define it, the conditions necessary for its attainment, the capabilities it bestows, and the essential apprehension regarding its relativity and imbalances. He points out both the existing international powers and those expected to rise according to criteria of power, which have the potential to shift the balance of power—whether military, economic, or demographic. He also explores non-state actors in an attempt to understand the type of power that is more significant and effective between state authority and that of other actors.
Tools of Power:
Power fundamentally expresses the concept of sovereignty, meaning the ability to act sovereignly, either through coercion or diplomacy, without being thwarted by another power. In other words, power is a means, not an end in itself. In this context, the main tools and means of power can be discussed as follows:
Demography and Geography: The demographic dimension of a state is one of its power tools, but one cannot simply judge a state’s strength based on its population size alone. In fact, a large demographic mass and an increasing birth rate might not stimulate power but could rather restrain it; the key is the efficiency of that demographic mass. On the other hand, a small demographic mass can result in fewer farmers, workers, and soldiers. Additionally, the demographic aspect of a state’s power is not limited to its internal population but must also consider the diaspora outside its borders, which sometimes play a crucial role—either socially and economically through remittances to their home country, or politically by supporting or opposing authority back home, as exemplified by the Turkish diaspora in Europe. As for the geographical factor, it is an important tool of state power. The idea of geographic isolation, for example, was crucial for the United Kingdom in enhancing its power, allowing it to evade successive invasions from Spain, France, and Germany.
Military Power: For German Chancellor Bismarck, “diplomacy without weapons is music without instruments.” Therefore, without a military force, a state cannot gain sovereignty and control. This does not necessarily relate to the actual use of force but at least to possessing it in certain quantities and qualities for deterrence. The Cold War exemplified this, marked by the absence of open warfare between two superpowers (the United States and the Soviet Union at that time) despite their nuclear capabilities that could have led to global destruction. In this context, one must mention the concept of “illusions of power,” which entails a flawed perception of an opponent’s strength. A recurring error in political and military history is considering a potential or actual adversary to be foolish. For instance, in Vietnam, Americans held a mistaken assumption regarding the adversary’s capability relative to their own power.
Diplomatic Power: While power involves weapons, it is not limited to them either. Although there is a belief that the diplomatic dimension has lost its significance, it still remains a genuine factor of power. Just as some view armed force as not yielding false victories, diplomacy attempts to organize a balance of power and avoid conflicts while enhancing gains achieved through military power.
Economic Dimension: No power exists without funding, as even large-scale diplomatic actions incur inevitable costs. Building and deploying a reliable military system without allocating substantial budgets will not succeed. Economic costs may also include indirect expenses. For example, Louis XI successfully financed enemies of his rival, Duke of Burgundy, Charles the Bold, to weaken Charles’s power.
Map of Power Balances:
For more than a century, the main powers in the international system have persisted, despite fluctuating balances among them. In this context, the author outlines the features of the current international power balances as follows:
The United States:
The U.S. has faced serious setbacks in less than a century. Despite its immense economic, military, and human resources, and its exceptional strategic isolation, it must be acknowledged that the United States will not be the first country in history to avoid a decline from the pinnacle of the global system. This resonates with the “Thucydides Trap,” related to the Peloponnesian War, indicating that while the dominant power seeks to maintain its status, another seeks to ascend to the top of the international system. If both pursue their respective goals, military confrontation becomes inevitable, either directly or through phases of economic and diplomatic confrontations. For the U.S., time is running out, as China’s multidimensional rise to power, coupled with Beijing’s desire to supplant it, prompts Washington to confront this challenge.
Russia:
Moscow is no longer, and perhaps will never be again, the number one or two global power. However, that does not prevent it from maintaining a presence in various geopolitical, sectoral, or regional issues within the international system. Russia embodies, like France and the UK, the characteristics of a poor superpower, albeit in a different way, as its economy fundamentally relies on the profitable production of oil and gas and certain arms. Its financial and currency strength is marginal, high-tech industries are rare, and research and development are weak, compounded by demographic challenges, especially with a fertility rate below 1.5 for more than half a century. While contemporary Russia is economically poor, it is “rich” in its retaliatory strategy, as Putin seeks to reclaim many of the spheres of influence held by the former Soviet Union as much as possible, without significant financial or even diplomatic means. Russia can assert its strength without risking conflict with the West, as it seeks to gain the support of more significant powers, primarily China.
China:
For the past half-century, China has been striving to become the world’s leading power, regardless of cost, obstacles, or the nature of partners and adversaries. It is rapidly evolving towards the status of a rich superpower to rival the U.S., not only economically and technologically but also militarily. However, China still suffers from three structural weaknesses: Firstly, most of its neighboring countries are either hostile or nuclear-armed, or both simultaneously, making the strategic isolation that benefited the U.S., France, or the UK absent in the Chinese case; Secondly, its dependence on energy imports from abroad raises concerns; Lastly, demographic challenges persist, with over half a billion Chinese still living far from prosperous regions, alongside the implications of the one-child policy regarding an aging population.
Europe:
Claiming that Europe lacks the means to become a great world power represents a significant shortcoming, especially since it is the third largest demographic bloc globally, possessing substantial cognitive, scientific, and financial power despite the UK’s exit from the EU, alongside civil and military nuclear capabilities. Some European nations boast vast air and naval fleets and an extensive diplomatic network. France and the UK both represent poor superpowers; despite having many military and technical power components, they lack the economies to bolster these capabilities and ensure their sustainability. As for Germany, despite its substantial economic and industrial strength, it will refrain for a long time from embodying a global power due to numerous historical and political reasons tied to memories of World War II. There is also a prevailing belief among the German public about focusing on economic dimensions and avoiding any steps toward forming an engaged military power abroad.
Emerging Regional Powers:
Numerous other emerging powers exist in the international system, yet they do not aspire to be primary powers. Instead, they seem willing only to maintain their status as effective regional powers, even while yearning for a larger role. This might apply to countries like Canada, Australia, and Japan; while some regional international powers are trying to enhance their strength, those aspirations are directed toward specific regional adversaries, such as the Indian-Pakistani rivalry or the Saudi-Iranian competition.
Non-State Actors:
International relations are no longer exclusive to states alone, as a number of non-state international actors have also emerged in the balance of power globally, which can be outlined as follows:
The United Nations: This organization fundamentally represents a forum for states, exercising a type of power that occasionally surpasses that of nations through its executive body, the Security Council. However, this does not imply the elimination of the state’s primacy as an active element due to this organization.
Regional Gatherings: Such as the Arab League, the Union for the Mediterranean (UPM), and the Turkic States Organization. There are dozens of unions among politically, diplomatically, or religiously aligned states, united by either seeking to resolve specific disputes, exercising lasting influence in a common area, or pooling their capabilities for the future.
Economic Gatherings: For a given state, enhancing its economic and financial capabilities through improved cooperation or partnership with others increases its political and even military potential, similar to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS).
Multinational Corporations: The contemporary world features global companies with enormous wealth, such as major oil companies, online shopping giants (like Amazon), tech behemoths, and a few firms in traditional sectors such as retail, luxury, automotive, or aerospace—all surpassing the GDP of several countries combined.
Mafia and Terrorist Organizations: Representing significant threats to states. While mafia gangs are a tactical nuisance more than a strategic threat, terrorism aims to alter the power balance with a system or government, sometimes seeking to overthrow the latter, but rarely eradicates the state itself.
In conclusion, natural phenomena can sometimes be employed as tools of power; this was evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. Even the outbreak of this epidemic revealed a relatively balanced Chinese discourse and approach before it uncovered a new, more influential Chinese diplomacy in many countries worldwide.
Source:
Frédéric Encel, Les voies de la puissance, ODILE JACOB, March 2022.
