The relationship between the United States and Pakistan in the post-September 11, 2001 era has primarily focused on counter-terrorism, particularly in Afghanistan. In the early stages of Donald Trump’s previous presidency, his administration employed coercive diplomacy to pressure Pakistan to “do more” to eliminate terrorism within its borders. However, in later stages, Trump wrote a letter to Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, actively seeking assistance on the Afghan issue, which led to an improvement in their relations. Now, the regional landscape has changed following the U.S. withdrawal and the Taliban’s takeover of power in Afghanistan, refocusing the relationship between Islamabad and Washington on policies related to China and India.
The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) – particularly – and the broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have somewhat influenced the Pakistani-American relationship. Washington opposes these projects, labeling them as a “Chinese debt trap,” whereby China offers substantial loans to countries that then become unable to repay their debts, forcing governments to concede strategically vital ports to Beijing. India’s involvement in Afghanistan and its relations with the U.S. have also impacted Pakistan-U.S. relations. The U.S. foreign policy toward India aims to counter China. Washington supports New Delhi in every possible way, negotiating multiple defense agreements that might allow them to share military bases and granting India access to the American Global Positioning System (GPS). Former Presidents Barack Obama and Donald Trump visited India while avoiding Pakistan to send a strong message opposing Islamabad’s policies.
Terrorism and Security Cooperation
Pakistan has maintained positive relations with the United States since its establishment in 1947, with the U.S. recognizing Pakistan as an independent state. Over time, the relationship improved significantly, with Pakistan receiving substantial aid and packages in the form of money and goods in exchange for joining the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization and the Central Treaty Organization (CENTA). However, the conflict between India and Pakistan later created a trust deficit between the two countries, leading to Pakistan’s withdrawal from these organizations in the 1970s, even while already being subjected to U.S. sanctions. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was pivotal for the Pakistani-U.S. relationship, where their mutual interests opened the door for closer ties, promoting cooperation against communism. Interestingly, the dissolution of the Soviet Union shattered the strong bonds between Pakistan and the U.S., prompting the latter to resume coercive diplomacy based on sanctions under the Pressler Amendment in the 1990s, due to Pakistan’s nuclear program.
Pakistan’s image suffered in American circles following the ascendancy of prominent Democrats in Obama’s administration. The Abbottabad operation, where Washington disregarded the Pakistani leadership, assassinating Osama bin Laden without prior notification, compounded the issue. Following that, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Pakistan and halted aid. When Trump assumed the presidency, the U.S. government intensified pressure on Pakistan. The Afghan Taliban emerged as a key point of contention between the two nations, with the U.S. accusing Pakistan of supporting the Taliban against America in Afghanistan, while Pakistan condemned the U.S. for undermining its sacrifices in the war on terror. Trump tweeted on New Year’s Eve 2018 that the U.S. had given Pakistan $33 billion and, in return, Pakistan was a source of deficits and lies. In response, then-Prime Minister Imran Khan stated that the U.S. should not blame Pakistan for its failures in Afghanistan.
Relations between the two countries soured to their lowest point, with leaders engaging in a virtual battle. Additionally, Trump accused Pakistan of providing safe haven to terrorist leaders. In a press conference, the U.S. Secretary of State stated that Washington fully recognized that Pakistan provided safe havens for extremists in Quetta and Peshawar, further fueling the fire of animosity between the two nations. Using this same argument, the U.S. placed Pakistan on the Financial Action Task Force’s (FATF) gray list due to suspicions of terrorism financing. Pakistan fulfilled 26 out of 27 FATF conditions but is expected to continue facing pressure from Washington using this card against Islamabad.
Trump wrote a letter to Prime Minister Khan seeking Islamabad’s cooperation for a safe exit from Afghanistan (which was later managed under the Biden administration), marking a pivotal shift in the bilateral relationship. Pakistan demonstrated seriousness and a desire for a peaceful resolution to the Afghan crisis, releasing Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar (the brother-in-law of Mullah Omar, the historical leader of the movement), who is a key figure in the Afghan peace process. Moreover, Pakistan exerted pressure on the Taliban to participate in negotiations. Subsequently, the U.S. praised Pakistan for its crucial role, with U.S.-Afghan peace negotiator Zalmay Khalilzad visiting Pakistan and commending its stance. In response to Pakistan’s actions in the Afghan peace process, Donald Trump offered to mediate in the Kashmir dispute with both the Indian and Pakistani Prime Ministers. Pakistan attempted to internationalize the Kashmir issue through this offer, but Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi rejected Trump’s mediation, stating that Kashmir was a bilateral issue between Pakistan and India. Following this, Trump remained silent on the Kashmir issue.
China and India: Ongoing Tensions
Pakistani-American relations have soured due to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project, with Washington expressing its reservations about the project on multiple occasions, particularly regarding the Chinese debt trap. Due to these factors, the U.S. has warned Pakistan about Chinese debt, and U.S. South Asia adviser Alice Wells made several strong statements against the CPEC project, to which Asad Umar, the former finance minister of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf government, responded by saying the U.S. should clean up its own house first, as it is the largest borrower of Chinese loans.
The U.S. also supports India’s position in the region, which opposes the Belt and Road Initiative. According to the Indian government, the Belt and Road Initiative passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, a disputed area between India and Pakistan. This is also one of the key reasons India refuses to join the Belt and Road Initiative. Another significant factor in the deterioration of U.S.-Pakistani relations is the American stance on India in its conflict with China, where the border conflicts between New Delhi and Beijing have paved the way for the U.S. to choose India as an ally in the region.
Since the 1990s, the U.S. has rapidly moved towards India, with extensive military and security agreements signed, including the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA), the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), and the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA). Consequently, the U.S. supplies India with the GPS system, which India can use to track its adversaries’ locations. India and the U.S. have also established agreements for utilizing each other’s bases and ports. Additionally, India received a waiver from the U.S. to import oil from Iran, which is under sanctions, along with acquiring S-400 missile defense systems for defensive purposes.
This rosy picture of U.S.-Indian relations has led to a decline in U.S.-Pakistani relations; thus, Pakistan has laid the groundwork for positive ties with Russia, initiating military exercises with a state that was previously an adversary but is now considered a friend. Meanwhile, Russia has strengthened its relationship with Pakistan at China’s request. Recently, Russia surprised India by verbally supporting a resolution proposed by Pakistan in response to India’s illegal actions in Kashmir, although with the help of France and the U.S., India was able to reject the resolution.
The U.S. requires assistance in the South China Sea to counter China and bolster support for its allies in the Philippines and Japan, who have defense treaties stating that if these countries face threats, Washington must intervene to protect them. To achieve these goals, it relies on India as a reliable partner to help confront Beijing, which gives New Delhi greater maneuverability in South Asia and allows for a stronger military presence at Pakistan’s expense.
Conclusion
The United States is an important trading partner for Pakistan, with an annual trade volume of $6.6 billion, making it Pakistan’s largest export destination, while China is the largest source of imports. Despite Islamabad’s strong strategic and economic ties to China, Pakistan relies on U.S. assistance to sustain its development and maintain economic stability. Pakistan’s heavy dependence on continuous financial and developmental aid from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, with Washington playing a pivotal role in these institutions, compels Pakistan to closely collaborate with the new Trump administration. In the coming period, not much change is expected concerning Pakistan, and the usual pattern of a “client-state relationship” driven by security needs for both sides will continue to shape the interactions between Pakistan and the United States. Trump is likely to view Pakistan through security lenses and may demand tighter control over Pakistan’s relations with China and Russia.
