Numerous intelligence reports from Ukrainian, South Korean, and American sources indicate that North Korea has recently deployed military forces to support Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, suggesting that there are currently around 10,000 North Korean soldiers in Russia, with expectations that this number may rise to 12,000. This unprecedented move marks a significant shift in the geopolitical alliance between Russia and North Korea, with the latter openly participating for the first time in a European conflict that exceeds its usual sphere of influence. This military cooperation raises many questions about the potential consequences of this security alliance on regional and global security dynamics, especially as many Western officials acknowledge that adding thousands of North Korean soldiers to the largest conflict in Europe since World War II would increase pressure on Ukraine’s exhausted military, in addition to inflaming geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region.
Security Alliance
The deployment of North Korean forces to assist Russia represents a new level of cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, involving several dimensions, the most notable of which are:
Implementation of Strategic Partnership Provisions:
In June 2024, President Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a comprehensive strategic cooperation treaty. Article four states that “in the event that either party goes to war due to an armed invasion, the other party must provide military assistance and other support by all available means without delay.” This agreement was ratified on October 24, 2024, making the timing of this ratification with the arrival of North Korean troops unlikely to be coincidental. It appears that the Kremlin seeks to establish a legal justification for external military support in its war against Ukraine by placing North Koreans on the frontline in the Russian Kursk region, rather than in Donbas or Donetsk, the locations of the fiercest battles. On the other hand, some Western analysts claim that North Korean soldiers remain of lesser importance compared to its massive stockpile of munitions, as Pyongyang had previously sent Moscow up to nine million artillery shells, nearly half of the total artillery shells fired by Russia in 2024, according to South Korean and Ukrainian intelligence.
Support for Russian Front Lines in the War:
North Korea’s decision to send troops to Russia is considered a strategic move serving multiple purposes. The deployment is primarily composed of elite units known for their rigorous training and commitment to North Korea’s command structure. Furthermore, Western intelligence reports indicate that these forces are expected to assume roles ranging from frontline combat to logistical support, allowing Russia to allocate its forces to higher-priority operational areas within Ukraine. The military support from North Korea also provides Russia with critical advantages, especially given reports of its labor shortages and rising casualty figures in the war. Thus, these reports suggest that Putin’s reliance on North Korean forces may be an implicit acknowledgment that his war in Ukraine has not gone according to his initial plans. In this context, North Korean Foreign Minister Choi Son Hui, during her recent visit to Moscow, affirmed Pyongyang’s commitment to the strategic partnership it has signed with Moscow, stating: “We will always stand firmly by our Russian comrades until the day of victory,” promising “unbreakable military camaraderie” while praising the “wise leadership” of President Vladimir Putin during his war in Ukraine.
Enhancing Pyongyang’s Security and Military Capabilities:
For North Korea, the decision to support Russia is driven by short- and long-term goals to strengthen military relations with Russia, thus securing a powerful ally capable of providing diplomatic and material support in North Korea’s international dealings. Additionally, cooperating with Russia potentially opens avenues for North Korea to acquire military technology or resources in exchange for its support, which could bolster its nuclear and missile programs. Moreover, the involvement of North Korean forces in the Ukranian conflict provides a unique opportunity for these troops to gain direct experience in modern warfare, a chance not available since the Korean War in the 1950s. Given North Korea’s largely defensive posture towards South Korea, exposure to advanced combat scenarios, including the use of drones and modern artillery, provides comprehensive insights that could be applied in the event of any future military clashes at its borders.
Economic Benefits for the North Korean Economy:
Alongside military and strategic benefits, Pyongyang seeks to gain economic advantages from its alliance with Russia, particularly as it relies on limited trade networks. Some estimates indicate that Russian financial support could amount to millions of dollars, which would bolster the North Korean economy, severely weakened by Western sanctions and international isolation. It is anticipated that Russia will cover all costs associated with deploying North Korean forces, including their wages, which observers estimate will be at least 2,000permonthperindividual.Itislikelythataround902,000permonthperindividual.Itislikelythataround901,200 to $2,400, making this sufficiently attractive for these soldiers to volunteer in Russia, as stated by several former North Korean soldiers. Additionally, Russia may supply North Korea with essential goods, such as oil, fuel, and food supplies, which are hard for North Korea to obtain under international sanctions. Moreover, the potential for a longer-term military and economic partnership with Russia offers North Korea an alternative to reliance on China, thereby diversifying its support base and potentially reducing China’s influence over Pyongyang, according to various Western estimates.
Supporting the Russian Combat Front in Kursk:
Western intelligence reports indicate that Moscow intends to deploy North Korean troops to the Kursk region, where the Kremlin sees the necessity to repel Ukrainian forces from this position without disrupting other high-priority offensive efforts in Ukraine in the coming months. Additionally, Russia aims to exploit the West’s refusal to allow Ukraine to use weapons within Russian territory and depth, encouraging it to have North Korean forces fight within its borders, making it difficult for Kyiv to attack them with long-range Western weaponry. Ukrainian Army Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi noted that Russia deployed nearly 50,000 soldiers from other areas to the Kursk region between August and early October, which implies that they had to weaken other front areas to redistribute forces to Kursk. Thus, deploying part of the North Korean individuals to Kursk may allow Russian leadership to redistribute Russian personnel into Ukraine, whether to support ongoing offensive operations in eastern Ukraine or to bolster defensive efforts in the north and south. Notably, it seems unlikely that North Korean forces will be deployed directly in Ukraine until the Kremlin ensures their effective response to the Kursk incursion. This caution may stem from the Kremlin’s current priority to reclaim its territories, and keeping North Korean forces on Russian soil grants Moscow greater control over the information effects of their deployment. If their success in Kursk proves stable, Russia may utilize these soldiers in future operations in Ukraine.
Escalation of the Conflict
Without a doubt, North Korea’s dispatching of troops to support Russia in the Ukrainian war represents a serious expansion of the conflict’s trajectory, with several far-reaching implications expected, particularly in the Korean Peninsula. These include:
Strengthening the Russian-North Korean Partnership: Enhanced relations between Russia and North Korea could lead to the advancement of the latter’s nuclear weapons programs, especially given that the June 2024 agreement includes provisions enhancing cooperation in the fields of science and technology, including space and peaceful nuclear energy. Although there is no explicit provision indicating Russia’s support for North Korea’s missile or nuclear weapon development, Russia has abandoned its previous opposition to these programs, as evidenced by its use of veto power against a 2022 UN resolution aimed at tightening sanctions on North Korea and another resolution in 2024 to extend the mandate of the UN Sanctions Monitoring Committee, effectively ending oversight of compliance with international sanctions imposed on Pyongyang. Within this cooperation framework, North Korea may seek to ensure Russian defense commitments in the event of a regional conflict in the Korean Peninsula, meaning that current North Korean support represents a potential military quid pro quo between the two nations in fulfilling the terms of their recent defense agreement. Additionally, North Korea might benefit from this experience to develop coordination mechanisms with Russian forces in any future conflicts.
Increased Concerns for Washington and Its Allies in East Asia: The deployment of North Korean forces to support Russia has heightened security concerns in East Asia, particularly among the United States and its regional allies, notably South Korea and Japan. U.S. officials quickly expressed worries that North Korean participation could encourage Russia to forge partnerships with other isolated or hostile countries, potentially broadening the scope of the conflict. Moreover, Washington, Tokyo, and Seoul jointly issued a statement condemning Pyongyang for its nuclear weapons development and deepening military cooperation with Russia, affirming their commitment to mutually defend each other against any direct threats from the Russian-North Korean alliance. In the same vein, the implications of this alliance are no less significant for NATO. They could complicate the alliance’s efforts to achieve its objectives in Eastern Europe, which may necessitate strengthening NATO’s military presence in this region, and possibly increasing support for member countries towards Ukraine to compensate for the advances Russia is making through North Korean forces.
Increased Tensions on the Korean Peninsula: South Korea views North Korea’s involvement in the Ukrainian war as a security threat, as it signals Pyongyang’s readiness to engage in conflicts outside its traditional scope. In response, the Seoul government announced that it is considering “phased countermeasures.” Although there have been threats to send offensive weapons to Ukraine, direct assistance from South Korea is likely to remain limited to humanitarian and non-lethal aid, as domestic laws prohibit weapon exports to active conflict zones. Additionally, South Korean officials worry that North Korean troops, having gained combat experience, may pose an increasing threat to their country, especially if they return with improved tactics and operational expertise from their participation in Ukraine. In another context, despite escalating Western threats against Pyongyang due to its involvement in the Ukrainian war, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile off its eastern coast, in addition to South Korean defense intelligence revealing that its northern neighbor is preparing for its seventh nuclear test. This could indicate a trend towards renewed escalation in the Korean Peninsula, as all parties involved prepare to face the tense security environment in the region.
Reduction of North Korea’s Dependency on Chinese Support: Various Western reports indicate that the military support North Korea provides to Russia partly aims to reduce Pyongyang’s dependency on Beijing, thereby diminishing the latter’s influence over Kim’s regime. China has been regarded as North Korea’s most important partner to date, with North Korea’s sanctions-stricken and impoverished economy heavily reliant on trade with China, which accounts for over 90% of its total imports and exports, as well as being its largest source of food aid. However, the relationship between China and North Korea is marked by distrust, often leading to Pyongyang’s anger over Beijing’s attempts to curb its behavior. China previously hosted the six-party talks between 2003 and 2009, aimed at halting North Korea’s nuclear program, and voted in favor of multiple UN sanctions against it until 2022. North Korea’s extreme nuclear policy revealed in 2017 uncovered the boundaries of the alliance between the two countries, where editorials in the “Global Times,” a paper that reflects official Chinese positions, indicated that Beijing should not intervene militarily if North Korea attacked the United States first, and could even permit the U.S. military to bomb North Korea’s nuclear facilities. Some Chinese media suggested that Pyongyang threatens China’s security by possessing nuclear weapons without consulting Beijing. In turn, North Korean state media issued a rare criticism of China, accusing it of “dancing to the tune of the United States.” In 2023, China’s permanent representative to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, stated that Beijing is “committed to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, peace and stability, and the political resolution of the issue through dialogue,” a policy Pyongyang has explicitly rejected.
Chinese Vigilance and Caution Toward the Russian-North Korean rapprochement: In response to North Korea’s involvement, the United States and its allies have increased diplomatic engagement with China, urging it to contain North Korea’s military ambitions, especially given their recognition of the pivotal role China plays in preventing further escalation. On its part, Beijing has cautiously responded to military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, attempting to maintain stable relations with both Russia and the West, reflecting China’s strategy to avoid entanglement in conflicts that could jeopardize its economic relationships, particularly with the United States and Europe. Therefore, it is likely that China will closely monitor the military alliance between North Korea and Russia with concern, as this could complicate China’s regional security strategies, especially if North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine leads to escalated Western sanctions. China might face pressure to reduce its support for Pyongyang to avoid harming its international standing. However, explicit condemnation seems unlikely, as China aims to maintain its influence over North Korea, viewing it as a strategic buffer against South Korea and Japan, U.S. allies.
Doubts About the Efficiency and Effectiveness of North Korean Forces: It remains unclear to what extent North Korean forces can effectively perform their combat tasks, despite receiving training at Russian military facilities. However, differences in language, culture, training, and combat doctrine may reduce the effectiveness of these forces until they can better integrate with Russian units. Given some reports indicating that Kim Jong Un has sent special operations forces from the 11th Army Corps, known as the “Storm Brigade,” which are elite troops trained for infiltration and assassination missions and receive more military training than newly conscripted Russian soldiers sent to the front lines, it seems unlikely that Kim will continue sending many elite soldiers to Russia if losses mount at the same rate as Russian losses. Additionally, a risk facing the North Korean regime is the possibility of its soldiers deserting the battlefield or attempting to defect to Ukraine or South Korea. Although this claim has not been independently verified, Ukrainian intelligence reported that 18 North Korean soldiers stationed near the Russian-Ukrainian border have already fled their positions.
Increased Ukrainian Pressure on the West to Strike North Korean Forces Within Russia: While U.S. officials continue to reject Ukrainian requests to use Western weapons to strike targets within Russia, despite reports of North Korean troop deployments, Ukrainian President Zelensky has increased pressure on the West to take action against these North Korean forces within Russia, emphasizing the importance of enabling Ukraine to strike these troops deep within Russia. He urged the West to stop “observing” and to take steps to address the issue of North Korean forces in Russia before they begin engaging in combat against his country, lamenting, “Instead of this long-term necessary mandate, the U.S., the UK, and Germany are just watching. Everyone is just waiting for the North Korean army to start attacking Ukrainians.”
In conclusion, North Korea’s decision to deploy military forces to support the Russian campaign in Ukraine represents a pivotal development with far-reaching effects, as this alliance signals a shift in North Korea’s military and foreign policy. Its influence has now extended beyond the Korean Peninsula, positioning itself as an active participant in international conflicts affecting its strategic allies. Looking ahead, this alliance has the potential to reshape security dynamics not only in East Asia but also within the broader context of international power balances. The military experience Pyongyang may recently acquire, along with potential access to advanced weaponry, could lead to more assertive stances in its regional disputes, thereby challenging the existing regional power structure. As a result, the United States, South Korea, Japan, and other Western allies may need to adopt stronger defensive measures, thereby escalating military preparedness in East Asia.
