The relationship of American businessman Elon Musk with the elected president Donald Trump has piqued the interest of Beijing, particularly as expectations rise regarding a tough stance from the incoming Republican administration toward Beijing. This is largely due to Musk’s close ties with the Chinese government, increasing hopes in American and Chinese circles that he could help mediate and strengthen ties between Beijing and Washington, as well as facilitate various trade deals during Trump’s second term.
Driving Motivations
Several reasons contribute to the expectation that Elon Musk will serve as a communication channel between the United States and China during a second Trump administration, including:
Musk’s Economic Interests: Elon Musk is a pivotal and influential figure in technology and business, making him well-positioned to play a vital role in deepening cooperation between Washington and Beijing. His exceptional profile combines innovation with a global vision, qualifying him to bridge the gap between the two great powers. Notably, his company Tesla, established in Shanghai, serves as a successful model of U.S.-China cooperation and is the first wholly foreign-owned enterprise on Chinese soil. This precedent could facilitate further collaboration that would generate numerous job opportunities for young people in both countries, improve production efficiency, and enhance commercial ties, while also opening up new investment avenues.
Drawing Parallels Between Musk and Henry Kissinger: Musk is seen as a possible successor to Henry Kissinger in mediating trade deals between the two nations. Kissinger was instrumental in normalizing relations through his landmark visit to Beijing in 1971 and was respected in China as an informal diplomat fostering connections between Washington and Beijing. Musk’s visit to Beijing in April 2024, where he met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who praised Tesla as a successful partnership, further fueled hopes that Musk could replicate Kissinger’s role in bridging the divide between the two nations.
Musk’s Strong Relationships with Chinese Leaders: Musk wields significant influence, allowing him to engage with key figures in China. His meetings with high-ranking government officials demonstrate his potential to ease tensions between Washington and Beijing, especially amidst heightened competition in vital sectors like artificial intelligence, semiconductor technology, and microchips.
Musk’s Ability to De-escalate Tensions: Musk has typically adopted a neutral stance in the ongoing tensions between Washington and Beijing, focusing on mutual interests. This perspective could potentially help alleviate disputes across various contentious political issues, serving to avert escalation and fostering scientific collaboration based on his ventures in space and artificial intelligence.
Trump’s Potential Use of Musk as a Backchannel to Beijing: It is likely that elected President Donald Trump would enlist billionaire Elon Musk to facilitate conversations with China through informal channels, particularly to negotiate areas of ongoing conflict. Given Trump’s previous strategies during his first term, which may continue into his second, there is an expectation for more informal agreements with China through American figures who have strong investments and relationships there.
Obstacles to Cooperation
Elon Musk may encounter several challenges in playing a significant role in enhancing cooperation between Washington and Beijing, including:
Tensions Between the U.S. and China: The relationship between Beijing and Washington is characterized by persistent tension as China consistently seeks to expand its global and regional influence, particularly in the Indo-Pacific, which Washington views as a challenge to its economic interests and national security. In response, the U.S. seeks to curb Chinese expansion through alliances with neighboring countries, especially Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.
Ongoing Competition in Space: The enduring rivalry between the U.S. and China over microchip technology and artificial intelligence is expected to continue, particularly with Trump’s anticipated restrictions on advanced chip access for China. He is likely to press other nations, such as South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, to reduce cooperation with Beijing on semiconductors and AI, aiming to restore U.S. leadership in these fields.
Continuous Cyberattacks from China: Another challenge includes the ongoing cyberattacks perpetrated by the Chinese government targeting critical U.S. sectors. Washington views these incursions as breaches of national security and threats to infrastructure, which could escalate tensions further.
Trump’s Commitment to Increase Tariffs on China: During his campaign, Trump pledged to continue the trade war with China by imposing a 60% increase in tariffs on Chinese goods, tightening export controls on technologies beneficial to China, and revoking its most-favored-nation status. He also intends to eliminate U.S. imports of essential goods from China and prevent Chinese purchases of American agricultural land, all of which could harm China’s economy already suffering from a downturn.
Business Leaders
In conclusion, while the reliance on businessman and billionaire Elon Musk by elected President Donald Trump may not be sufficient to improve relations between Washington and Beijing, it is imperative to involve a group of business leaders, including Musk, Tim Cook of Apple, and Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, who together might help stabilize relations—not merely enhance them—given the complexity of the situation between the two states.
