Nuclear Triad Development Races Between China, India, and Pakistan

“We are sailing into uncharted waters, and everything we think we know about nuclear weapons, particularly regarding deterrence and coercion, rests on rules that are based on a very short and limited history between two of the most stable periods in the world, compared to what we see today.”

With this statement, defense analyst David Cooper summarizes the general framework surrounding the nature of nuclear interactions occurring in the world today. These interactions are linked to the transition between nuclear eras alongside the sharp developments in the international system. The first nuclear era was associated with the emergence and use of the atomic bomb against Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945, which ended World War II and created a new international system.

The second nuclear era emerged following the Cold War, the fall of the Soviet Union, and American dominance. Keith Payne was the first to frame the concept of the second nuclear era in 1996, in his book “Deterrence in the Second Nuclear Age.” He added another factor affecting international transformations: the impact of technological advancement or the process of “automation” on nuclear power. In 1999, Paul Bracken contributed another dimension to this nuclear era, highlighting the efforts of regional states—particularly in the Middle East and Southeast Asia—to acquire nuclear weapons.

Today, as we transition into the phase of the third nuclear era, technology has proven to be the most significant determinant in the shift between nuclear ages, amid enormous advancements during the technology and artificial intelligence revolution. The rapid pace of these developments has profound implications for nuclear and missile armaments. It is no longer possible to categorize all powers under a single nuclear era; rather, there will be advanced nuclear powers and others that are less developed.

At the heart of this issue lies Asia, one of the most critical regions of uncharted territory, according to David Cooper. It houses the largest nuclear arsenal in the world, including Russia, which is considered a major nuclear power amidst dangerous security interactions. This includes Russia’s adjustment of its nuclear doctrine following the war with Ukraine, in addition to the ongoing crisis between the Koreas regarding North Korea’s nuclear program, the Taiwan crisis, and China’s ambitions to become a global leader—all of which demand access to more advanced nuclear capabilities in terms of both quantity and quality.

In this context, the Asian map appears riddled with hotspots; yet, it is not an exceptional case in the continent’s history. On the contrary, it may merely represent a new ordinary round in history—a repetitive scene coinciding with the transition from one international system to another.