Motivations for Erdoğan’s Announcement of a Potential Naval Base in Northern Cyprus
On July 20, 2024, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan revealed the possibility of establishing a naval base in Northern Cyprus if necessary. These statements were made during his participation in the 50th-anniversary celebrations of what Turkey calls the “military peace operation” on the island. The announcement coincides with the ongoing complexities in resolving the Cyprus crisis and Ankara’s failure to promote the proposal of creating two states, in addition to its inability to gain recognition from some countries regarding the legitimacy of Turkish Cyprus. This raises questions about the motivations behind Turkey’s hint at establishing a military base in Northern Cyprus, as well as the potential repercussions of this move, especially amid escalating tensions between Turkey and Greece.
Main Reasons
Turkey’s hint at establishing a military base in Northern Cyprus can be interpreted in light of several considerations, the most prominent of which are:
Responding to Athens’ Criticism of Ankara’s Policy: The Turkish statements come in light of Greece’s rejection of Turkey’s moves in Northern Cyprus. On July 19, 2024, Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias described Turkey’s presence on the island as “occupation.” Additionally, Greece’s efforts to establish a naval base in Cyprus have caused Ankara’s resentment and concern. This was evident in Erdoğan’s statements, where he said, “The Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis should make his defense minister know his limits.” In this context, the move by defense industry companies to organize a defense industry exhibition in Northern Cyprus from July 19 to 21, 2024, can be seen not only as a display of their defense products but also as a message to Greece that Turkey has a defense system capable of facing Greek threats.
Reducing the Military Gap with Greek Cyprus: There is a clear gap in military capabilities between Greek Cyprus and Turkish Cyprus, especially after the United States lifted its arms embargo on Southern Cyprus in September 2022, in addition to Greece sending more equipment and military support to the Greek Cypriots recently, amid a Greek conviction that the military solution for the island remains an option. Therefore, Ankara’s direction to announce the consideration of establishing a military base in the northern part of the island represents an attempt to reduce the gap in capabilities between the Greek and Turkish Cypriots.
Neutralizing Continuous European Pressures on the Cyprus Issue: Erdoğan’s statements seem to carry a response to the European countries’ announcement on the eve of the 50th anniversary of the island’s division, their continued support for a federal solution for the island. On the anniversary of the island’s division, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote on the “X” platform on July 19, 2024: “On this tragic 50th anniversary, and every day, we stand with Cyprus. We stand with the unity of territory and sovereignty,” and she continued that “the Cyprus issue is a European issue. We will continue our strong support for Cyprus in its efforts to reunite the last divided EU member state.”
Failure of the Two-State Solution Project: Erdoğan’s announcement of the possibility of establishing a military base in Cyprus is not separate from the failure of the two-state solution efforts proposed by Turkey, and the stagnation of negotiations to resolve the island’s crisis since the last round of negotiations that brought the conflicting parties together in Switzerland in 2017. This has driven Erdoğan to assert that the federal solution is no longer possible on the island divided since 1974, ruling out the resumption of negotiations regarding the divided island amid Greece and its European allies’ rejection of the two-state solution option.
Preparation for a Potential Conflict with Greece: Despite political rapprochement attempts between Ankara and Athens in the recent period, revealed by the Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis’s visit to Turkey in May 2024, following Erdoğan’s visit to Greece in December 2023, the primary interaction between the two countries remains marked by disagreement and tension, especially concerning the Cyprus issue, with Greece insisting on the island’s reunification, while Turkey insists on the Turkish Cypriots’ right to establish an independent state. This may indicate that a confrontation between the two countries cannot be ruled out, thus explaining their moves toward announcing the possibility of establishing military bases on the divided island.
Securing Turkish Interests in Northern Cyprus: Erdoğan’s announcement of the possibility of establishing a naval base in Northern Cyprus is attributed to the strategic importance that the northern part of the island represents for Turkish interests. In addition to Northern Cyprus being an important market for Turkish exports and a significant trade partner for Ankara, it also represents a crucial base for Turkish moves in the Eastern Mediterranean for energy exploration.
Potential Implications
Erdoğan’s announcement of the possibility of establishing a naval base in Northern Cyprus presents several potential implications, which can be addressed as follows:
Return of Tension between Turkey and Greece: Erdoğan’s statements about his country’s ability to militarize the Cyprus crisis and establish a naval base if necessary, could lead to a return of tension with Greece, following a period of mutual efforts to ease tensions. This could increase the likelihood of a confrontation between the two countries, especially with the ongoing disputes between Ankara and Athens not only concerning Cyprus but also in the Aegean Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean. Concurrently, considering Greece’s national security’s connection to the situation in Cyprus, Turkey’s plans to establish a naval base in the northern part of the island are likely to cause concern in Greece, which closely monitors Turkish movements in Northern Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean in general.
Greece Taking Preemptive Measures against Turkey: Greece is likely to take several preemptive measures in the coming period to prevent potential Turkish military movements and disrupt Turkish intentions to establish a naval base in Northern Cyprus, or at least neutralize its negative impacts on Athens’ interests and influence in Cyprus, which is of strategic priority to Greece. This could be achieved by establishing a naval base in Southern Cyprus and encouraging allied European countries to enter new armament deals with Southern Cyprus, perhaps exerting stronger pressures on Turkey.
Expansion of Turkey’s Maritime Influence: Ankara’s direction to enhance its military presence in Northern Cyprus is related to its desire to expand its maritime influence in the Mediterranean region. According to its view, this contributes to bargaining with Greece and Europeans regarding finding a solution to the divided island that does not conflict with Turkish interests, and on the other hand, creates a conducive environment for Turkey to influence maritime transport and energy exploration activities in the Mediterranean region. This is particularly relevant given that Greece and European Union countries describe Turkey’s movements in the Eastern Mediterranean as illegal, implying that Ankara seeks to assert itself as an indispensable party in the equation of European interests in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Improving Erdoğan’s Image Domestically: Erdoğan’s announcement of his country’s readiness to enhance its military influence in Cyprus, and its ability not only to continue military mobilization to protect the Turkish Cypriots but also to build advanced naval bases, represents an opportunity to improve his and his party’s (Justice and Development Party) image domestically, especially after losing the local elections held in March 2024, and the stumbling of his efforts either to approach Syria or to reach a solution to the Syrian refugee crisis, which has imposed strong pressures on the country.
A Qualitative Shift
In conclusion, Erdoğan’s hint at the possibility of establishing a naval base in Northern Cyprus represents a qualitative shift in Turkey’s strategy regarding dealing with the island’s crisis, ongoing since the 1970s. It comes in the context of Turkey asserting that it does not rule out the military option to resolve the crisis, alongside its conviction that its military presence on the island remains a winning card to extend its influence and enhance its impact on managing European strategic interests.
