Macron’s Options: Where Is Le Cornu’s Second Government Heading Amid France’s Crisis?
French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu was tasked with forming his first government on September 9, 2025, following the collapse of his predecessor François Bayrou’s government, which lost a vote of confidence in the National Assembly after presenting the 2026 draft budget. The proposed budget included €44 billion in spending cuts and austerity measures aimed at reducing France’s public deficit and national debt.
Lecornu’s first government failed to win the Assembly’s confidence, with the opposition viewing it as a continuation of previous administrations’ policies. Consequently, he moved to form his second government, which survived two no-confidence motions on October 16, filed by both the far-right National Rally and the far-left La France Insoumise. The new cabinet secured the backing of Socialist, centrist, and conservative MPs after pledging to suspend the controversial pension reform law until the 2027 presidential elections.
However, the current government continues to face a looming specter of political instability that has haunted France since June 2024, when President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly — raising questions about the future scenarios for Lecornu’s cabinet in the coming months.
Roots of the Crisis
The current political turmoil in France stems from President Macron’s attempts to implement his neoliberal reform program, translating it into concrete fiscal and legislative measures centered on austerity and reduced public spending. France’s public debt has reached €3.345 trillion, while interest payments alone — according to former Prime Minister Bayrou — stand at around €67 billion this year and could climb to €107 billion by the end of the decade.
These policies have been deeply unpopular, sparking widespread protests and strikes. The proposed increase in the retirement age to 64 triggered nationwide demonstrations under the slogan “block everything,” paralyzing several key economic sectors.
This multifaceted economic, financial, and social crisis has forced ordinary citizens to bear the cost of reform — losing ground in employment rights, pensions, and social protections. As a result, Macron’s governments have repeatedly collapsed, particularly during his second term, after losing both the absolute and relative majorities in Parliament.
Since January 2024, France has seen the fall of four governments in less than two years:
- Gabriel Attal’s government (January–September 2024), which resigned following poor legislative election results that pushed Macron’s bloc to second place;
- Michel Barnier’s government (September–December 2024), which lasted only three months;
- François Bayrou’s government (December 2024–September 2025), which collapsed over austerity;
- and finally, Lecornu’s first government, which survived barely 24 hours before resigning and being reappointed to form a second one.
Lecornu’s Two Governments
Upon succeeding Bayrou, Lecornu promised to form a cabinet that broke with past policies, pledging to end the use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution — which allows the government to pass laws without parliamentary approval.
However, his first cabinet did not reflect this promised rupture in either composition or direction. It included 18 ministers, 15 of whom had served under Bayrou. Several portfolios went to staunch Macron loyalists, such as Bruno Le Maire, whom the opposition blames for recent fiscal imbalances. Consequently, the government was widely seen as a continuation of Macronism, relying on an alliance between the centrist and traditional right-wing blocs.
Lecornu’s first government resigned just 24 hours after its formation, with the prime minister attributing the failure to the fragmented political landscape in Parliament, where every faction sought to impose its vision, preventing stable coalitions and compromise. He urged lawmakers to prioritize national interest over narrow party agendas.
Despite the failure, President Macron reappointed Lecornu, who accepted “out of duty.” Macron’s insistence stemmed from Lecornu’s loyalty to the Macronist movement, his lack of presidential ambitions, and their longstanding friendship dating back to Lecornu’s tenure as defense minister. His appointment also allows Macron to focus on foreign policy, EU affairs, and support for Ukraine against Russia.
The second Lecornu government includes 34 ministers, among them 26 political figures from diverse backgrounds, 11 from Macron’s party, and 8 from civil society or senior administration. Sovereign ministries — Interior, Foreign Affairs, Defense, Economy, and Justice — remain in the hands of Macron loyalists. Over half of the ministers held office during the previous 14 months, indicating Macron’s desire to retain control over the political process until the end of his term in 2027.
The government survived two no-confidence votes on October 16 after partially rolling back Macron’s reform agenda, particularly the pension law, which was suspended until the next presidential elections — a move that secured the Socialists’ parliamentary support.
Determinants of Survival
The fate of Lecornu’s second government largely depends on continued Socialist Party support, which is conditional upon fulfilling key promises:
- freezing the pension reform;
- halting the use of Article 49.3;
- easing taxes on small and medium enterprises and lower-income groups;
- and introducing wealth taxes on the rich.
It also hinges on whether the government accepts the Socialists’ proposed amendments to the 2026 budget, which include a 2% tax on wealth exceeding €100 million, expected to generate €22 billion in revenue.
Lecornu’s government thus faces a balancing act: maintaining its fragile coalition — particularly with the Socialists — by slowing down economic reforms, while persuading Macron to explore new mechanisms for fiscal reform that do not penalize vulnerable groups. Success depends on its ability to negotiate with the conservative right and centrists to adapt policies and prevent another collapse.
Open Scenarios
The survival of Lecornu’s second government in the National Assembly does not mean the crisis is over — its roots run deeper than parliamentary votes. Possible scenarios for France’s political future include:
- Government continuation until the 2026 budget approval:
The top priority for Lecornu’s cabinet, though opposition pressure may force further compromises on Macron’s reform agenda, as seen with the pension law. - Dissolution of the National Assembly and early elections:
Some political forces advocate this path, but it depends on Lecornu’s performance and Macron’s ability to restore stability. Macron, however, has ruled out repeating the 2024 dissolution, calling it a mistake, and insists on serving his full term until 2027. - Cohabitation between Macron and a radical left-wing government:
This scenario remains unlikely due to the ideological gulf between Macron’s neoliberal, pro-market policies and the left’s defense of social welfare and opposition to austerity. Persistent tensions between Macron and the left’s leadership further diminish this prospect. - Formation of a technocratic government:
A possible outcome if neither early elections nor a left-wing government materialize. However, such a cabinet would be transitional and limited in scope, offering no long-term solution to France’s structural crisis.
Conclusion
France’s political future ultimately hinges on the emergence of a major party capable of securing an absolute majority in Parliament — essentially reviving the spirit of the Fifth Republic’s stability. Yet, this is unlikely to happen before Macron’s term ends in 2027.
Ongoing governmental and institutional instability will inevitably weaken France’s foreign policy, particularly Macron’s push for European strategic autonomy and Paris’s stance on the Ukraine–Russia war. France’s credibility and image on the international stage are increasingly at risk — eroded by the ripple effects of this persistent domestic political crisis.
