Central Asia is undergoing a fundamental shift in its geopolitical structure, marked by a rapid strategic convergence with China. This reflects a deeper transformation in the regional and global balance of power. The China–Central Asia Summit 2025, held in the Kazakh capital Astana on June 17, 2025, represented the culmination of a growing trajectory in relations between the two sides and embodied an unprecedented level of political, economic, and strategic coordination—especially amid a volatile regional and global context. The summit took place against the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, continued fallout from Iranian-Israeli tensions, and the withdrawal of Western powers from the region—creating a geopolitical vacuum that Beijing is actively and effectively seeking to fill.
Against this backdrop, the summit marked a critical milestone in consolidating China’s role as a major external power with long-term visions for the security and development of Central Asia, a region increasingly becoming a battleground for influence among global powers.
Asian Convergence
Over the two years since the first summit in May 2023, China’s relations with Central Asian countries have made significant strides, especially in technology and trade, reaching a new qualitative level that heralds a more ambitious phase. The summit’s significance can be understood across the following axes:
1. Intensified Global Competition Over Central Asia:
Long viewed as a peripheral region in global affairs, Central Asia has emerged as a vital geopolitical arena experiencing rising competition among major powers. Thanks to its vast natural resources—including oil, gas, uranium, and rare earth minerals—it is now central to what resembles a “new Great Game,” involving China, Russia, the European Union, and other powers such as Turkey and India. While Russia remains a key player, particularly through its security arrangements like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), China’s strategy of offering “unconditional” investment has proven more attractive due to its flexibility and perceived effectiveness.
2. China’s Push to Surpass U.S. and European Presence in Central Asia:
The summit occurred amid a noticeable decline in American influence, with reductions in U.S. development aid—including cuts to USAID budgets—and diminished diplomatic engagement from Washington. Meanwhile, Europe has shown growing interest: Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni made an official visit to the region in May, preceded by a significant visit from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in April, as part of Europe’s efforts to counter China’s growing footprint in the heart of Eurasia.
3. China’s Evolution from Economic Partner to Regional Strategic Power:
China’s relations with Central Asia have transformed from purely economic cooperation into a comprehensive geopolitical partnership. The region has become a cornerstone of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), first launched by President Xi Jinping in 2013 from the same Kazakh capital—symbolizing China’s special interest in the area. In his summit speech, Xi emphasized four principles: mutual respect, mutual trust, mutual benefit, and mutual assistance, presenting a holistic vision of “joint modernization” through high-quality economic growth. With this, China sent a clear message: it is no longer just an investor but a regional power shaping Eurasia’s balance and regional dynamics.
4. Growing Trade Relations Between China and Central Asia:
China has made substantial economic gains in Central Asia, surpassing Russia to become the region’s top trading partner—a strategic shift accelerated by the Russia–Ukraine crisis. In 2024, bilateral trade volume reached about $95 billion. China aims to diversify trade baskets and support high-value exports from Central Asian states, while lowering trade and procedural barriers. The summit proposed initiatives such as easier visa procedures for businesspeople to boost trade exchanges and create a more vibrant, integrated business environment across the region.
5. Growing Energy Partnership:
In bilateral meetings during the summit, President Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to expanding cooperation in both conventional and clean energy sectors, as part of a broader strategy to consolidate economic influence and ensure long-term environmental security. The China–Central Asia gas pipeline—running through Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan—was the first of its kind to connect China directly to Central Asian energy resources. Since operations began in 2009, it has delivered over 500 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China.
Simultaneously, Chinese companies are expanding investments in solar and wind energy in Central Asia as part of the global shift to renewables. The Zhanatas Wind Power Project in Kazakhstan, for example, generates around 350 million kilowatt-hours of electricity annually—enough to power millions of homes and help alleviate power shortages in southern Kazakhstan.
6. Responding to Global Geopolitical Shifts:
The summit occurred during a sensitive time on the international stage, with escalating Iran-Israel tensions impacting global energy markets and trade corridors. In this context, China positioned the summit not just as a platform for deepening regional ties, but as a venue to showcase its role as a force for stability and balance—offering constructive partnerships instead of military escalation or direct intervention.
Held just days before the G7 Summit in Canada, the China–Central Asia Summit also delivered a global diplomatic message: China is proposing an alternative model of international cooperation based on multilateralism, non-hegemony, and mutual respect.
Renewing Friendship
The summit between China and Central Asian states yielded several major outcomes:
1. Cementing Principles of Good-Neighborliness and Lasting Cooperation:
One of the summit’s key political achievements was the signing of a Treaty of Good-Neighborliness, Friendship, and Lasting Cooperation between China and the five Central Asian republics. This reflects a clear intent to build a long-term strategic partnership that goes beyond traditional cooperation, aiming instead to form a stable regional bloc grounded in mutual trust and shared interests. The treaty affirms essential principles such as non-aggression, peaceful conflict resolution, respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity, and support for each nation’s right to independent development free of external interference. Notably, the treaty’s language included expressions like “eternal friendship,” underscoring the depth of political commitment and mutual trust.
2. Agreement on Strengthening Economic and Investment Cooperation:
China’s Foreign Minister highlighted that the summit’s key economic outcome was the designation of 2025 and 2026 as years of high-quality development in China–Central Asia cooperation. Over 100 official agreements were signed, ranging from bilateral deals and regional cooperation frameworks to joint initiatives under the Belt and Road Initiative. A key result was the Joint Action Plan for High-Quality Cooperation under the BRI, focusing on infrastructure development, supply chain integration, and enhanced energy trade across Eurasia.
Announced projects included an $8 billion railway connecting China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan (starting mid-2025) and a $12 billion aluminum smelting complex by China’s East Hope Group in Kazakhstan. Other initiatives included expanding natural gas cooperation with Turkmenistan, investing in green energy infrastructure, and supporting Tajikistan’s mining sector—particularly lithium and rare earth metals.
3. Launching Cultural and Educational Initiatives:
Beyond politics and economics, the summit showcased soft diplomacy, especially in culture and education. President Xi announced the creation of three new cooperation centers: one for poverty alleviation, another for educational exchange, and a third for desertification control. China also pledged 3,000 scholarships and training opportunities for professionals from Central Asian countries over the next two years, aiming to build strong knowledge and human connections across the region.
4. Criticism of U.S. Trade Policy:
In his speech, Xi used the summit to openly criticize U.S. trade policies—particularly its tariff-based “trade wars,” which have affected countries like Kazakhstan, facing tariffs of up to 27% from Washington. Xi emphasized that such practices produce no winners and harm all parties in the long term.
5. Security Cooperation Mechanisms:
The Astana Declaration, a major political document issued at the summit, committed all six countries to intensifying joint efforts against the “Three Evils”: terrorism, separatism, and extremism. The declaration also included pledges to combat cross-border organized crime, cybercrime, and illicit drug trafficking. China stressed that regional security should be achieved through multilateral cooperation—supporting the role of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and establishing new bilateral law enforcement mechanisms. China also affirmed its support for Turkmenistan’s permanent neutrality, its commitment to Tajikistan’s sovereignty, and offered technical assistance to Kyrgyzstan’s counterterrorism forces.
6. Institutionalizing China–Central Asia Relations:
The summit reflected a strategic shift toward institutionalizing China’s ties with Central Asia, establishing the China–Central Asia Summit as a permanent mechanism for dialogue and coordination. It was agreed the summit will be held biennially, rotating between China and a Central Asian country. The next summit will take place in 2027 in China, with a permanent secretariat established in Xi’an to follow up on summit outcomes—providing an institutional platform for China to maintain a lasting and structured influence in regional affairs.
Conclusion
The 2025 China–Central Asia Summit was far more than a routine diplomatic event. It became a pivotal moment in redefining Eurasia’s geopolitical landscape. Politically, it set new standards for building a regional order based on long-term partnerships and mutual understanding. Economically, it introduced transformative infrastructure and trade projects. Strategically, it marked China’s expanding influence at the expense of rival powers—offering a competing model of regional development that rejects Western conditionality.
