Iranian Missile City: A Display of Strength or a Circumvention of Weakness?

Just a few days after the start of the new Iranian year, on March 25th, Iranian official channels released a video showcasing the “Missile City” containing a diverse range of ballistic missiles in an underground military facility. According to Iranian officials, the facility possesses all the necessary defensive dimensions to generate military capabilities ten times greater than those displayed during the second “True Promise” operation. The video, which lasts only 85 seconds, suggests that Iran can withstand any attack and respond to its enemies’ movements based on its qualitative military strength. However, the video, designed to showcase Iran’s long-range offensive capabilities, also highlights Iran’s security vulnerabilities and its concerns about its uncertain future amidst a delicate regional and international context.

Structure of the Missile City

Iranian television broadcast a visual report about an underground base belonging to the Revolutionary Guards called “Missile City.” The Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, General Mohammad Bagheri, and the Commander of the Aerospace Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, showcased a new missile city for the Islamic Republic, which includes Iran’s latest ballistic missiles. These missiles include the “Emad” with a range of 2000 kilometers, the “Sejil” with a range between 1500 and 2500 kilometers, the “Qadr H” with a range of 1700 kilometers, the “Kheibar Shekan” with a range of 1450 kilometers, and the “Haj Qasem” with a range of 1400 kilometers, in addition to ground-attack cruise missiles of the “Paveh” type. According to the report, this base was used in October of last year to launch an attack on Israel with approximately 200 missiles, including supersonic missiles.

However, there is a clear weakness in the new city related to the storage of ammunition inside long interconnected tunnels and large caves without explosion-resistant doors, or at least limited ones, or separate barriers. This could lead to dire consequences if the facility is attacked, and the absence of these preventive measures could result in a massive chain of secondary explosions, in contrast to other Iranian underground weapon caves, especially those that launch missiles through surface openings.

The video is the latest display of Iran’s underground facilities, following a video in November 2020 that showcased, for the first time, an Iranian underground ballistic missile facility, where groups of ready-to-launch missiles were transported through huge tunnels using a rail-like automated system. Three years later, Iran revealed a massive facility used to protect fighter jets, and the published images showed “F-4D/E Phantom II” aircraft, which still constitute a significant part of Iran’s air force.

Implications of the Iranian Display

Over the past five years, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have announced the construction of three underground missile cities, revealing tunnels filled with solid-fuel missiles, in addition to medium-range ballistic missiles. However, the display of the new city carries precise messages behind the sensitive timing of the Iranian announcement, revealing the refutation of the current regional and international context, as follows:

The Islamic Republic’s propaganda policy: The Islamic Republic has always employed the propaganda tool through psychological warfare operations, media deception, and propaganda. Iran consistently exaggerates its military strength and achievements in a way that deters its enemies and instills credibility in Iranian deterrence. The video of the new missile facility widely spread across Telegram channels and WhatsApp groups supporting the resistance axis within the framework of Iranian military propaganda. In the filmed footage, the Israeli flag was shown placed on the ground, a common practice in the Islamic Republic to insult Tel Aviv.

Efforts to display power: Through the Missile City, Iran aims to export the iron fist of the Islamic Republic by affirming its offensive and defensive military strength and its deterrent capabilities. Iran claims to be developing its defensive capabilities faster than its competitors, in line with Iran’s military policy, which relies on demonizing the enemy and exaggerating the threat and conspiracy. Tehran aims to send a clear message to the regional and international community that it is a capable state not only in facing international pressures imposed on it but also in deterring enemies.

Context of nuclear agreement negotiations: Perhaps the most important aspect of the timing of the announcement of the Iranian city is related to the ongoing negotiations between Iran and the United States. The video of the missile city was released amidst threats from the American President, who gave Tehran two months to reach a new nuclear agreement. Trump issued a final warning about the necessity of accepting the nuclear agreement within the next two months or facing the consequences. After the American President sent a message through UAE Presidential Advisor Anwar Gargash to the Islamic Republic, offering to conduct negotiations regarding a new nuclear agreement in exchange for lifting sanctions and threatening military action if diplomacy fails. In contrast to the American stance, European countries – France and Britain – decided to officially activate the dispute resolution mechanism in the Iranian nuclear agreement, accusing Iran of violating the agreement.

Facing American threats: The revelation of the facility comes amid escalating concerns about the movements of the Donald Trump administration, which has prompted Iran to demonstrate its military readiness to face those threats, especially since Trump hinted days ago that Iran might be a target of his ongoing campaign against the Houthis, describing it as their main sponsor. Since March 15th, the United States has launched extensive airstrikes on Yemen targeting the Houthi group, which serves as a direct warning to Iran, the group’s supporter.

Increasing Israeli attacks: The Israeli Air Force is launching intensified airstrikes in Syria and Lebanon, the latest being the airstrike on the Tadmur and Tiyas bases in Homs Governorate with the aim of eliminating any threat to Israel’s security. It is worth noting that the Tiyas base is used by the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards to conduct military operations. Therefore, Tehran’s announcement of the new facility can be seen in the context of its efforts to display its military capabilities in the face of Israeli attacks on its allies.

Strengthening American military presence in the region: U.S. Defense Secretary “Pete Hegseth” directed the U.S. Navy’s strike aircraft carrier group “USS Carl Vinson” to the Middle East region to join the strike aircraft carrier group “Harry S. Truman,” whose deployment in the Middle East was recently extended by “Hegseth.” There are also indications of the arrival of 12 “F-35” aircraft from Hill Air Force Base to the region. In addition, it appears that a large force of “B-2 Spirit” bombers is heading to Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean, as satellite images show at least three “C-17” cargo aircraft and ten aerial refueling tankers deployed in British territories, which were previously used as a launch point for American strikes in the Middle East. It is worth noting that the “B-2” has a unique capability to strike fortified underground complexes, unlike any other conventional weapon.

The Future of the Islamic Republic in the Face of the United States

Less than two days after the Islamic Republic announced the capabilities of the new Missile City, the official Iranian response – written for the first time – to the latest message from the American President came, indicating Tehran’s insistence on adopting a firm stance that rejects negotiations regarding its ballistic missile program outside the framework of the 2015 nuclear agreement. The message, sent through Oman, included key issues; in defense matters, the response rejected any discussion regarding Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, which the Islamic Republic considers non-negotiable, and that its military capabilities are essential for national defense and not subject to external bargaining.

On the nuclear front, Iranian officials affirmed their openness to negotiations but within the framework of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, and that Iran is not interested in engaging in direct negotiations under American pressure, with a rejection of any attempt to expand the scope of negotiations or impose new restrictions on the program, which Iran continues to describe as peaceful. The message also addressed regional developments, rejecting American moves to curb Iran’s support for armed groups, considering that these groups are independent and that Tehran has no influence over their political decisions.

The ongoing dialogue between Washington and Tehran regarding the Iranian nuclear program over the past forty-six years reveals Iran and the United States’ tendency to address each other at inappropriate times and in the wrong ways. Trump made bold and harsh statements on live air, but sent more conciliatory messages in the letter sent through the UAE. Similarly, Tehran’s reactions over the past week ranged from outright rejection of negotiations, to openness to indirect talks, to the message carrying ambiguous meanings regarding the Iranian regime’s strategy towards the American administration in issues beyond the nuclear program.

From the above, it can be said that linking the latest Iranian response to the American message with the announcement of enhancing Iran’s military capabilities, and what relates to the capabilities of the new Missile City, reflects the outlines of a state of confusion and division within Iran regarding the nature of dealing with the United States and determining the future of the Islamic Republic amidst regional and international developments. While a hardline conservative faction strongly opposes negotiations with the American administration and believes that Iran must adopt a deterrent policy against its enemies based on its current and future military capabilities, the moderate reformist faction emphasizes the importance of negotiations to lift sanctions and support the Iranian economy, considering that some Iranian leaderships view Tehran’s proxies in Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria as a heavy burden that needs to be alleviated.