Impeachment of President Yoon: Potential Candidates and Key Issues in the Early South Korean Presidential Elections

Following an attempt to impose martial law in South Korea, the country experienced a severe political crisis that culminated in the impeachment of President Yoon Suk-yeol by the parliament, a case that the Constitutional Court has been reviewing for almost four months. With the Constitutional Court announcing his impeachment on April 4, an early presidential election must be held within 60 days, as stipulated by the constitution.

As expected based on previous experiences, the acting president Han Duck-soo announced that the early presidential election would take place on June 3, the last day of the two-month period allowed by the constitution; this mirrors the time when the special presidential election in 2017 was held on May 9, following the Constitutional Court’s endorsement of the impeachment of Park Geun-hye on March 10 of that year.

With the deadline for candidate registration set for May 11 and the official campaign starting on May 12, many prospective candidates began preparing for the presidential election on April 8. The conservative Minister of Labor, Kim Mun-soo, resigned, hinting at his intention to run for president, while Hong Joon-pyo also stepped down as the mayor of Daegu for the same reason, as both aim to secure the nomination from the ruling People Power Party following President Yoon’s impeachment.

The two major parties (the People Power Party and the Democratic Party) have begun to reorganize after several months of political crisis, following sharp polarization in the relationship between parliament and the presidency, particularly since 2022. Consequently, the upcoming elections are expected to showcase the traditional rivalry between two main camps: the leftist Democratic Party with liberal leanings and the rightist People Power Party with conservative tendencies, both of which have alternated in power over recent decades and have employed legal mechanisms to pursue their opponents across the aisle.

Certainly, the People Power Party candidate will face a difficult battle to improve their public image following Yoon’s removal, despite the narrowing gap between the two parties in polls conducted in March and April (40% for the Democratic Party and 36% for the People Power Party) compared to the immediate post-martial law crisis period. Conversely, should the Democratic Party win the presidency, it would become the parliamentary majority and head of the executive authority, meaning it could potentially enact legislation and break the legislative deadlock that characterized Yoon’s tenure.

Notable Potential Candidates from the People Power Party:

Several names have emerged as potential candidates from the currently ruling People Power Party:

Kim Mun-soo: He served as Minister of Labor, from which he resigned to run for office. He enjoys broad support among party members and is known for his close ties with Yoon Suk-yeol. Despite his extensive history as a labor activist, his statements regarding Koreans’ nationality during the Japanese colonial period could alienate some moderate factions within the party.

Hong Joon-pyo: Currently serving as the mayor of Daegu, a conservative stronghold, he has also resigned to enter the race. Hong was a major contender in the 2017 election with the Saenuri Party, which branched off from the People Power Party, and faced Moon Jae-in, who won the election. He attempted to secure the People Power Party’s nomination in the 2022 presidential race but lost to Yoon Suk-yeol. Opposition media discuss his alleged involvement, along with his son, in the Myung Tae-gyeon scandal, related to manipulating candidate lists within the People Power Party.

Han Dong-hoon: Former head of the People Power Party, he resigned following President Yoon’s martial law declaration, despite his previous closeness to Yoon. This rift emerged due to several political controversies, particularly regarding the allegations against the First Lady. Han was a prominent opponent of the martial law declaration and played a role in its repeal. Although he abstained from voting on the parliamentary impeachment decision against Yoon on December 7, 2024, he later supported the impeachment, especially as Yoon rejected a political path proposed by Han and the party’s higher-ups for the president’s resignation. Nevertheless, it is speculated that Han, now identified with moderate factions, may not run for the upcoming presidential election despite being included among the candidates in public opinion polls.

Oh Se-hoon: Serving as mayor of Seoul, he commands significant strength, being the first mayor to serve four consecutive terms, thus increasing his chances against Lee Jae-myung. However, his popularity within the People Power Party is relatively weak, and reports suggest his ties to the more controversial figure linked to the candidate list manipulation scandal, involving the ousted president and his wife Myung Tae-gyeon.

Notable Potential Candidates from the Democratic Party:

Party leader Lee Jae-myung stands a strong chance of securing the nomination for the presidential election, especially as his faction maintains control over the party. A January 2025 poll by Dong-a Ilbo indicated that 74.1% of Democratic Party supporters view him as the appropriate candidate for the presidency. However, other names from the party also emerge as potential candidates:

Lee Jae-myung: He is the main figure of the opposition, having previously run against Yoon Suk-yeol in the 2022 election, losing by the narrow margin of just 0.8%. The election was described by global media as “undesirable” due to the scandals affecting the two main parties involved. Looking at Lee’s history, he shares similarities with previous liberal presidents, coming from a humble socio-economic background and having a legal career and involvement in human rights advocacy, akin to former presidents Roh Moo-hyun and Moon Jae-in, as well as serving in parliament and as governor of Gyeonggi Province.

Given his liberal affiliation, Lee’s approach towards South Korea’s foreign policy would differ from his predecessor Yoon Suk-yeol, aligning more with typical liberal presidents. He has expressed intentions to achieve a balance between the alliance with the United States, a cornerstone of South Korea’s foreign policy, alongside cooperation with Japan, while fostering closer ties with China.

Lee faces several challenges that do not preclude him from running for the presidency. Notably, he was initially sentenced to one year in prison for violating election laws with a two-year suspension; however, the Supreme Court’s annulment of the ruling keeps his candidacy viable pending an appeal from the prosecution.

Other charges against Lee relate to his time as governor of Gyeonggi Province and real estate development projects in Seongnam awarded to an obscure company. However, these allegations remain in the hearing stage, meaning they do not hinder his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election.

Kim Dong-yun: Currently the governor of Gyeonggi Province, he previously served as Minister of Economy and Deputy Prime Minister during Moon Jae-in’s presidency. He founded a party called “New Wave” in 2021 to contest the 2022 presidential election, but later withdrew in favor of Lee Jae-myung and merged his party with the Democratic Party. Given his previous experiences, Dong-yun places significant focus on economic issues and has recently criticized the monopolization of politics by lawyers or prosecutors.

Oh Won-sik: Currently the speaker of the National Assembly, he possesses significant political experience, having participated in Kim Dae-jung’s presidential campaign in 1987 and being involved in the foundation of the Peace, Democracy and Unification Research Association established by pro-democracy forces outside the government in the late 1980s. During the recent crisis, he played a crucial role in lifting the martial law imposed by the ousted President Yoon Suk-yeol, as well as in the parliament’s decision to impeach Yoon and in the appointment of Constitutional Court judges.

Kim Boo-kyum: He previously served as Prime Minister during Moon Jae-in’s presidency between 2021 and 2022 and gained attention by winning a parliamentary seat in Daegu, a conservative bastion, in 2016, subsequently rising in prominence following the martial law attempt. Boo-kyum is known for his dialogue-oriented stance that avoids polarization and regionalism, though he faces criticism from the hardline factions within the party, who consider him “ideologically ambiguous.” Nevertheless, he reaffirms his commitment to his principles. Despite that, Boo-kyum was part of a group of leaders who met with Lee Jae-myung to coordinate efforts to affirm the impeachment of Yoon Suk-yeol through the Constitutional Court.

Five Key Issues:

The atmosphere surrounding the impeachment of President Yoon and leading up to the early presidential elections suggests several contentious issues that will become sources of debate among presidential candidates and will shape Korean politics post-elections. These issues primarily include the reformation of civil-military relations, as the incoming president will need to mend the rift caused by the martial law enforcement, which saw the military mobilized in December 2024, stirring painful memories in the collective consciousness regarding the martial law enacted in 1980.

The second issue pertains to constitutional amendments; several prospective candidates have addressed the importance of constitutional revisions, although the stances of the top candidates (Lee Jae-myung and Kim Mun-soo) remain ambiguous. The former described such amendments as akin to a black hole, while the latter emphasized a more gradual approach, stating, “If there’s a problem, it should be addressed step by step; we cannot build the state in this manner and then blame the constitution for it.”

The third issue focuses on reducing the current political polarization. For instance, the Korean Social and Economic Research Association has proposed several suggestions, primarily: reforming the power structure and the parliamentary system to combat politics based on a “total victory” principle, reforming the electoral system to alleviate animosity between the two main parties, and reforming political parties to establish a healthy party organization with internal democracy.

In tandem with these issues, party restructuring comes to the forefront. It is customary for South Korea’s two major parties to reorganize their representing parties after every presidential election or political crisis, either through renaming the party or merging with smaller parties to consolidate efforts across their various factions. In this context, it is anticipated that the People Power Party will merge with other parties or that Han Dong-hoon, the resigned party president, will launch a new party under his leadership, representing the moderate wing of the conservative faction.

Finally, foreign policy remains an area of contention between the two main parties. Should the Democratic Party prevail and Lee Jae-myung become the next president, this could signify a shift in South Korea’s foreign policy towards a more balanced approach in dealing with both China and Russia, as well as potential attempts at rapprochement or de-escalation with North Korea, particularly if U.S. President Donald Trump seeks to re-establish contact with Pyongyang.