On October 23, 2024, the Turkish capital, Ankara, experienced a terrorist attack executed by three gunmen. They targeted the facilities of the Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) in the Kahramankazan area, resulting in the deaths of five individuals and injuries to 22 others, all of whom were employees of the company.
As of now, no group has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya accused the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara classifies as a terrorist organization, as responsible for the incident. The terrorist attack garnered extensive global attention, especially considering that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan was abroad attending the 2024 BRICS summit during the attack. This raised numerous questions regarding the potential motives and expected repercussions of this act of terrorism.
Intertwined Dimensions:
The terrorist attack on TAI in Ankara coincided with several interconnected aspects, the most notable of which are as follows:
Uncertainty Surrounding the Perpetrators: The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) in Turkey did not claim responsibility for the attack and condemned it while denying any connection to it. Nevertheless, Ankara considers the PKK, which is classified as a terrorist entity, as the main suspect domestically. The Turkish Interior Minister mentioned this from the early moments following the attack, especially since the PKK has taken responsibility for similar acts in the past, the most recent being a suicide bombing at a government building in Ankara about a year ago. There is also the possibility that the attack was carried out by the Islamic State (ISIS), which has previously executed bombings in Turkey, most recently in January 2024 when two gunmen opened fire inside a Catholic church in Istanbul.
Turkey’s Largest Defense Industrial Complex: TAI, the target of the attack, is a major diversified company. Some believe it is the backbone of Turkey’s defense industries, currently holding a prestigious international position among the world’s top 100 arms manufacturers. The company gained significant media momentum in February 2024 following the successful maiden flight of its locally manufactured fighter jet “Kaan.” TAI oversees many strategic defense projects, including the T129 ATAK combat helicopter and the “Anka” and “Aksungur” drones, alongside its production of airframes and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) systems.
Increased Space Budget: The attack coincided with Turkey’s decision to raise its budget for space and aviation by more than one billion lira for 2025, indicating Turkey’s determination to achieve its space program goals. The first moon landing is scheduled for 2026, and by 2027, the budget allocated for space projects in Turkey is expected to reach seven billion Turkish lira, potentially allowing Turkey to secure a prominent position in the trillion-dollar global space economy.
Government and Kurdish Understanding Plan: The attack also coincided with a peace plan with the Kurds advocated by Erdoğan. In October 2024, he confirmed that his government would adopt “political alleviation” in its relations with the pro-Kurdish party in Turkey, indicating that he is considering peace talks with the Kurds. Just a day before the incident, Devlet Bahçeli, Erdoğan’s main ally and leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, proposed reconsidering the “life imprisonment without parole” conditions for PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan should he agree to dissolve his banned armed group under Turkish law. This step was described as an “extraordinary initiative.”
Suspicions of External Forces: Analysts have not ruled out the possibility of external forces being behind the attack, especially amidst the escalating tensions between Ankara and Tel Aviv due to the latter’s intensified war on Gaza and Lebanon, as well as the unspoken tensions between Ankara and the West related to Turkey’s drive for membership in the BRICS group and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, in addition to the stagnation of negotiations for European Union membership and Washington’s procrastination in completing the F-16 fighter jets deal. None of these speculations have been officially acknowledged by any Turkish officials thus far.
Common Objectives:
Despite the ambiguity surrounding the assailants responsible for the attack, whose objectives differ based on their affiliations, several common goals seem evident among the internal and external suspects, which include:
Attempt to Weaken Defense Manufacturing: The attack may have been aimed at undermining Turkey’s defense industries, which accounted for about 80% of Turkey’s exports in 2023, generating approximately $10.2 billion. This is significant as the attack targeted the largest aircraft manufacturing company in Turkey, owned by the Turkish Armed Forces and the government, which works on promising defense projects. Erdoğan explicitly stated from Moscow during the 2024 BRICS meetings that the attack “targets the country’s defense initiatives that may contribute to Turkey’s complete independence in the field of defense industries.”
Disruption of the Defense Industry Exhibition: It is also possible that the attack was intended to tarnish Turkey’s international defense industrial image, as it coincided with Istanbul hosting the SAHA EXPO, a significant global event in this field that featured 1,478 defense companies from over 120 countries. Additionally, the number of exhibitors grew by 112% compared to the previous edition in 2022, and Turkey was estimated to have signed defense contracts worth $6.2 billion during the opening ceremony.
Moreover, the attack occurred alongside Saudi Arabia’s interest in purchasing 100 fifth-generation fighter jets from Turkey, known as “Kaan,” which would enhance defense cooperation between the two nations. This followed a recent visit by a Saudi delegation led by Air Force Chief of Staff Lieutenant General Turki bin Bandar bin Abdulaziz to Turkish defense industries, including TAI, indicating that the attackers primarily aimed to damage Turkey’s reputation in the defense sector.
- Pressure on Ankara on Other Issues: The attack may have aimed to pressure Ankara on various fronts, including its relations with the West, Israel, or its presence in Syria and Iraq, among other matters. Some believe that this attack serves simply to create confusion, irritate perceptions, and convey messages of pressure, given its limited impact, especially when viewed in isolation rather than as part of a new wave of terrorist escalation.
Possible Consequences:
The recent terrorist attack in Turkey could lead to several significant repercussions, the most notable of which include:
Undermining Opportunities for Understanding Between Ankara and the Kurds: The attack is likely to diminish the prospects for peace that Erdoğan has promoted with the Kurds. Some view the attack as a message rejecting the pro-Kurdish party’s understanding plan with Ankara, despite the party’s distancing and condemnation of the act. On the other hand, Turkish authorities may resort to launching a broad crackdown on PKK elements, which has already begun within hours of the attack, with Turkish airforce striking at least 30 PKK targets in northern Iraq and Syria in a clear response to the attack on TAI.
Potential Decline of Turkish Defense Industries: Although Turkish Industry Minister Mehmet Fatih Kacır stated that the country would not retreat from strengthening its defense industries, implying that the attack would not affect the future of Turkish defense manufacturing, this seems misleading. It is likely that the defense industries will indeed be impacted by the terrorist attack and may experience a decline in the coming months, as Ankara will be preoccupied with responding to imminent terrorism at the expense of developing its defense industries. Notably, the defense sector had achieved record figures in 2024, with defense export revenues during the first eight months reportedly reaching $3.7 billion, marking a 9.8% increase compared to the same period in 2023.
Imposition of Exceptional Measures: It is probable that the attack will result in extensive restrictions on freedoms in Turkey, potentially leading to the imposition of a state of emergency. Access to social media platforms in Turkey was restricted following the attack. According to NetBlocks, which tracks internet outages, platforms including X, Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, and the messaging application Telegram were limited in Turkey. Yaman Akdeniz, co-founder of the Turkish Freedom of Expression Association, described this as a clear violation of communication rights for millions of people in Turkey and an indicator of restricted liberties. Authorities also enforced a broadcasting ban to prevent media outlets from disseminating sensitive images of the attack.
International Support for Turkey Against Terrorism: The attack may elicit broad international support for Turkey against terrorism, as there have been numerous international reactions condemning the attack from world leaders and international organizations. Notable condemnations came from UN Secretary-General António Guterres and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte expressed support for Turkey, affirming that the alliance would stand with Turkey against terrorism in all its forms, alongside widespread denunciations from regional and international forces.
In conclusion, given the current situation in Turkey following the recent terrorist attack on TAI, despite the apparent large and significant negative repercussions as per initial evaluations of the scene, the attack may be limited in its impact and consequences, especially if Erdoğan capitalizes on this incident to achieve multiple gains, notably gathering international support for his country and diverting Western attention from efforts to join the BRICS group and his participation in its recent meeting. Thus, it is likely that a specialized team of Erdoğan’s aides is reviewing opportunities to derive benefits from the crisis stemming from this terrorist attack.
