The Korean Peninsula remains shrouded in instability due to the absence of peace prospects in this long-tormented region, raising global concerns about the potential for direct conflict between the two Koreas, which are engaged in a Cold War supported by several major powers. In continuing with the region’s uncertainty, Russia and its ally North Korea signed a joint defense agreement, which analysts describe as the strongest link between Moscow and Pyongyang since the end of the Cold War. This agreement comes at a time when Russia faces increasing isolation due to the war in Ukraine, while North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has intensified weapons of mass destruction tests, and joint military drills involving the United States, South Korea, and Japan are in response to Pyongyang’s provocations.
The new treaty stipulates that Russia and North Korea are obligated to provide each other with immediate military assistance if either is attacked by a third country. This raises the possibility of Russia being almost automatically involved in any future war between the Koreas, further heightening security concerns in Seoul and potentially compelling it to take countermeasures in response to the Russia-North Korea escalation.
Concerns in the South
Condemnation of the Agreement: The South Korean government quickly condemned the new defense agreement. The office of President Yoon Suk-yeol issued a statement describing the agreement as a threat to national security and a blatant violation of UN Security Council resolutions. The statement also warned that it might have negative consequences for relations between Seoul and Moscow. It criticized the agreement, stating, “It is absurd that two parties with a history of invasion wars – the Korean War and the war in Ukraine – are now pledging mutual military cooperation based on a preemptive attack by the international community.” South Korea summoned the Russian ambassador in Seoul, Georgy Zinoviev, on June 21, 2024, to protest the new treaty. Deputy Foreign Minister Kim Hong-kyun explained that Russian military support for North Korea harms South Korean security and warned that it would negatively impact Seoul-Moscow relations. Within the UN, South Korean Foreign Minister Choo Tai-yul expressed regret over Russia’s actions, which he described as a violation of multiple UN sanctions resolutions against North Korea that Moscow had previously supported. National Security Advisor Chang Ho-jin stated on June 21, 2024, that “any cooperation that directly or indirectly helps enhance North Korea’s military capabilities is a violation of UN Security Council resolutions,” adding that the agreement would have severe repercussions for South Korea-Russia relations.
Threat to Stability: South Korean officials view the agreement as a direct threat to the nation’s security and stability. Their comments came shortly after North Korean media detailed the agreement, noting it as the strongest connection between Moscow and Pyongyang since the Cold War and an exacerbation of instability on the Korean Peninsula. Local news agencies have portrayed the security agreement as targeting the United States and its allies, including South Korea, which has a long-standing conflict with its northern neighbor. According to the Korean Central News Agency, the agreement also stipulates that Pyongyang and Moscow should not enter into agreements with third parties that violate their core interests, and both countries are committed to taking joint measures to enhance their defensive capabilities to prevent war and protect regional and global peace and security. The agreement also calls for other countries to cooperate in efforts to establish a new multipolar world system, reflecting Moscow and Pyongyang’s desire to counter the US-led global order, with Seoul potentially being in the line of initial military attacks from Pyongyang.
Complication of North Korean Military Programs: Former South Korean nuclear envoy Lee Yong-joon noted in June 2024 that by reviving the 1961 agreement between North Korea and the Soviet Union, Kim Jong Un has secured robust military, economic, and diplomatic support from President Putin, including the proposal to defend North Korea against any external attack. Lee also mentioned that “the language used in the treaty is deliberately broad, allowing any form of military assistance agreed upon by Russia and North Korea.” It has become clear that North Korea has a greater appetite for Russian technology, especially in space and long-range ballistic missiles. Despite Moscow’s current avoidance of supplying nuclear and missile technologies, the potential for technological exchanges between the two countries, given Russia’s strong expertise in these areas, could make North Korea’s nuclear threats more significant for its southern neighbor.
Doubts About the US Security Umbrella: Following the signing of the Russia-North Korea security agreement, many South Koreans have questioned the effectiveness of the US security umbrella, especially the nuclear umbrella. This debate was highlighted by Representative Na Kyung-won, a five-term member of the ruling People Power Party, who is running to lead the party currently led by President Yoon Suk-yeol. Na posted on social media that “the deterrent power of the strong South Korea-US alliance is working now, but it does not guarantee the ability to respond to future changes in the security environment,” adding that “international situations, such as cooperation between North Korea and Russia, add uncertainty to South Korean security.” As a result, the credibility of extended deterrence has become a frequent topic of discussion among South Korean citizens, who are always on alert for potential threats and provocations from the North. Despite Seoul’s efforts to reassure citizens by referencing Washington’s April 2023 announcement reaffirming the US commitment to defend South Korea with its extended nuclear umbrella and other strong missile defenses and conventional forces, concerns remain.
Increased Public Desire for Nuclear Weapons: Recently, there has been growing discussion among South Koreans about the need for Seoul to develop an independent nuclear capability, driven by the strengthening ties between Moscow and Pyongyang and questions about Washington’s commitment to their security. A June 27, 2024, survey by the Korea Institute for National Unification revealed that up to 66% of South Koreans believe their country needs to develop nuclear capabilities, up from 60.2% in 2023. Analysts suggest that the significant increase in support for domestic nuclear capabilities is due to North Korean provocations and the signing of a security treaty with Russia, along with uncertainties about future US administration commitments to South Korean security. Many Korean political and legal experts, such as Professor Park Jong-won of Dongguk University, agree with this trend, arguing that President Yoon Suk-yeol’s government should consider a potential Donald Trump victory in the November US presidential elections as a given, and explore various options, including nuclear options, to protect national security against North Korea. They believe that agreements with the current US administration could be fundamentally weakened or even canceled if Trump is re-elected.
Efforts to Mitigate Concerns Over the New Security Agreement: Contrasting with the previous alarming views on the new security agreement, several South Korean analysts question whether the Russia-North Korea treaty has established a true alliance. They point out that Putin avoided using this term in his public comments after the treaty was signed and urge President Yoon to adopt a more cautious response to the region. They argue that the language of the agreement is less important than what each country can actually do and the preparations for specific actions against South Korea.
Various Options
The expanded security ties between Russia and North Korea present South Korea with multiple response options to the recent security agreement. These include:
Military Escalation Against Moscow in Ukraine: Russia’s involvement in such an alliance with North Korea could severely damage South Korea’s relations with Russia. For Seoul, the new security agreement represents a major diplomatic defeat, undermining decades-long efforts to build a special relationship with Moscow and distinguish between North Korea and Russia in foreign relations. Thus, South Korea is likely to consider crossing red lines set by the Kremlin by exploring the possibility of sending arms shipments to Ukraine, aligning with Western countries that have long urged Seoul to provide military aid to Kyiv. South Korea, as an arms-exporting nation with a well-equipped military supported by advanced Western technologies, could take this step. Notably, this new approach would mark a departure from South Korea’s traditional stance, which focused on providing only humanitarian aid and other forms of peaceful support to Ukraine. Seoul had only joined the US-led economic sanctions against Moscow without agreeing to provide direct arms to Kyiv, citing a policy of not supplying arms to countries involved in international conflicts. Reports suggest that Seoul may have provided indirect military aid to Kyiv through the US, such as sending artillery ammunition to Washington, which then transferred it to Ukraine to avoid direct confrontation with Russia. Some argue that a presidential decree to lift the ban on military exports to Ukraine would not require parliamentary approval, indicating that Seoul could easily take this step if it decides to escalate against Moscow. However, Putin has warned South Korean authorities against such a move, noting that Russia “will make decisions unlikely to please the current South Korean leadership.”
Reassessing Economic Relations with Moscow: South Korea may not only escalate militarily but could also use economic tools in response to the Russia-North Korea agreement. Russia’s unintended damage to a key cornerstone of Russia-South Korea relations—the “Agreement on Cooperation in the Military and Technical Field, Defense Industry, and Logistics Services” signed in 1997—could lead South Korea to impose sanctions on Russian ships involved in arms transfers to North Korea. Expected declines in trade relations between Russia and South Korea in the coming years could reflect the continued Russian support for Pyongyang. For instance, trade between Seoul and Moscow fell to $15 billion in 2023, down from $21 billion in 2022, a decrease of about 30%.
Strengthening South Korea’s Security Alliances with the West: South Korea might use the concerns raised by the US and its Western allies to deter its northern neighbor. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s statement of support for South Korea’s responses to security threats and his indication that the US would explore various ways to address the threat to international peace and stability from Russia and North Korea reflect a shift in support for South Korean security strategies. By emphasizing the need for comprehensive support, including advanced missile defense systems and economic sanctions on countries supporting North Korea, South Korea may bolster its position within the Western alliance system. South Korea could pursue closer cooperation with NATO and increase its diplomatic efforts to strengthen its security partnerships with Western allies, seeking advanced technology and military support.
Pursuing a More Independent Security Posture: In light of growing domestic concerns about US security guarantees, South Korea may explore independent security measures. This approach could include developing its own nuclear capabilities or other advanced military technologies. Although it remains uncertain how the government might proceed, significant public support for independent nuclear weapons could lead to policy changes. Seoul could also seek to balance its security by diversifying its strategic partnerships and reinforcing its military capabilities to deter potential threats from North Korea and Russia.
Diplomatic Engagement with North Korea: South Korea might intensify diplomatic efforts to address North Korea’s recent military provocations and counter its alliance with Russia. Engaging directly with Pyongyang could help de-escalate tensions and foster a more stable environment on the Korean Peninsula. This approach would align with President Yoon’s “roadmap for the North Korean situation,” emphasizing dialogue and cooperation, although it faces challenges due to North Korea’s recent aggressive actions.
Conclusion
South Korea’s response to the new Russia-North Korea security agreement involves a complex interplay of military, economic, and diplomatic strategies. The alliance’s implications challenge South Korea’s security and stability, and Seoul’s decisions will likely shape regional dynamics and influence its relationships with both Moscow and Pyongyang, as well as with its Western allies.
