How Unmanned Systems Arms Races Changed the Reality of the Russian-Ukrainian War

When the Russian-Ukrainian war broke out on February 24, 2022, its main scene resembled traditional warfare involving the Soviet army, with tanks lined along long roads and troop carriers. However, three years into the war, unmanned systems from both sides have taken center stage, engaging in combat from a distance, known as the “gray zone,” approximately 5 to 8 kilometers apart, as described by a Ukrainian officer to the Kyiv Independent newspaper in April.

One of the most notable changes in the Russian-Ukrainian war is the shift from conventional combat styles to indirect engagement or “Standoff Warfare,” eliminating the need for direct human presence at the front lines. This distancing in engagement lines is seen not only as a means to reduce human casualties in battle but also reflects a shift in the philosophy of war towards the reliance on smart, precise, and semi-autonomous tools.

The Russian-Ukrainian War as a Testing Ground

According to this development, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) points out that the Ukrainian war has become a prototype for what could be termed “technological proxy warfare,” where smart machines are replacing soldiers in front-line operations. The battle no longer revolves around actual control of land but rather the ability to manage vital ranges remotely, whether they are supply routes, command centers, or air defense systems.

The rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, kinetic computing, and machine vision technologies have facilitated this new mode of warfare, which integrates reconnaissance, targeting, and execution into a single platform without continuous human intervention. With this trend, unmanned systems have begun to play roles that exceed tactical support, becoming pillars of strategic power in modern conflict, signaling a radical change in the nature of future wars.

In this context, several indicators should be considered:

The Unique Nature of the Russian-Ukrainian Wars in Building and Developing Unmanned Systems: Historically, wars have served as vast testing grounds for new weapons manufacture; however, no other war currently ongoing in the world compares to what is being produced in terms of numerous defensive innovations and thousands of operations testing unmanned weapons across theaters. This war will yield this as one of its primary outcomes. In this regard, Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Valerii Churkin stated that the number of innovations for these systems rose from 75 local models in 2023 to 330 unmanned models in 2024.

A Turning Point in Russian Military Manufacturing: In the same vein, it should be noted that Russia has transitioned into an innovator and developer of unmanned weapons, contrary to the common perception that Russia mainly manufactures tanks or heavy weapons. With the growing demand for drones, the Russian army turned to Iranian-made drones of the “Shahid” type (loitering munitions). However, by 2024, there appeared to be less media coverage and fewer international reports regarding the transfer of Iranian drones; instead, Russian defense and manufacturing reports revealed its own capabilities in unmanned systems. For instance, it developed a loitering version of the “Shahid” named Geran-2, improving the launch platform for greater flexibility on the battlefield.

Unmanned Systems Arms Races: When comparing the Russian and Ukrainian models, reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate a competitive innovation approach, meaning there is an arms race between the two sides in unmanned systems. As one side innovates a system, the other side rushes to develop a counter system. On this note, Ukraine may not face a technical issue as a state enhancing its ultra-technology manufacturing capabilities through NATO countries, while conversely, Russian companies have made strides in building counter-systems. Despite Western reports suggesting that Russia is still lagging in the race, this is evidenced by the gradual approach of Russian forces in using motorcycles to reach frontline positions in battles.

Both sides—Russia and Ukraine—are developing models for the use of combat robots. Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov revealed the delivery of several hundred ground robots to the Russian army, with plans for more deliveries this year. Concurrently, the Kremlin called upon military officials, the Russian military industry, and think tanks to focus more intently on combat robot platforms to meet operational needs, establishing a feedback mechanism connecting the army with production facilities, and ensuring the use of standardized parts for producing robots.

In contrast, the Ukrainian army uses ground robot systems for mine planting, reconnaissance operations, transporting ammunition, and conducting medical evacuations. Moreover, the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense disclosed D-21-12R robots, equipped with machine guns, undertaking multiple tasks, including (surveillance, patrolling, providing fire support to units, targeting enemy personnel and light armored vehicles).

The Nature of Unmanned Systems: When referring to the unique defensive or combat unmanned systems produced during the Russian-Ukrainian war, it is not limited to drones, although considerable advancements have been made in offensive drone models regarding payloads, ranges, stealth capabilities, and precision hits. However, it is believed that unmanned systems encompass other operational developments pertaining to intelligence and reconnaissance, jamming operations, and other multi-domain and theater combat equipment.

Tactical Shifts in Warfare and Evolution of Engagement Rules

The existence of any modern military system reflects combat tactics, particularly regarding unmanned systems, especially drones. While asymmetric warfare utilizing drones is not new, in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, the following aspects can be observed:

A Full Transformational Cycle: The Russian-Ukrainian war is also a model demonstrating a complete transition from traditional to fully unconventional or asymmetric combat styles. Notably, approximately 500 kilometers of the fighting front between Russia and Ukraine represents a direct engagement zone characterized by combat with these systems, with around 100 Ukrainian brigades dispersed along the nearly 2100 kilometers of front lines. Furthermore, international reports are no longer indicating the recruitment and mobilization crisis that Russia faced as the war prolonged, undoubtedly relieving the demand for missiles and other offensive and defensive equipment.

Structural Expansion: It is not believed that traditional warfare with tanks and conventional combat systems will conclude; instead, it will evolve alongside the integration of unmanned systems. Further, one can anticipate a division of war phases—initially beginning with conventional systems to gain ground, but the subsequent and current combat developments have rendered unmanned systems a complementary phase.

Indicators of Future Wars and Unmanned Systems:

Future Trends: The Russian-Ukrainian war can be viewed as a prototype for a radical transformation in the nature of future wars—an imminent future shaped by the widespread use of unmanned systems as a key component of warfare and not merely as logistical tools.

Complex Leap: The integration of unmanned systems with artificial intelligence technologies is increasing, allowing for greater autonomy in decision-making on the battlefield. The scope of application is expanding to include advanced techniques such as airborne lasers. For example, General Atomics showcased a capsule to be integrated with the MQ-9B drone in April 2025, with similar models reportedly being developed in China, and North Korea is believed to be developing similar platforms.

System Integration: Unmanned systems are integrating across aerial and naval combat. For instance, the Pentagon is developing drones to operate as “Loyal Wingmen,” serving as smart companions to next-generation fighters under the CCA program and similarly supporting manned warships and submarines, creating a multi-dimensional advanced integration in combat operations.

Emerging Threats: In light of this progress, rising concerns exist regarding the ease with which non-state armed factions can acquire these technologies, especially in conflict zones like the Middle East. Many components of these systems are available commercially and can be purchased from open markets, raising alarm over the transfer of future warfare capabilities to non-state actors.

Uncertain Fate: As reliance on unmanned systems increases, critical questions emerge regarding disengagement mechanisms and military settlements, particularly in scenarios involving drones armed with missiles or self-operating armed robots, necessitating a comprehensive reevaluation of the rules and laws of war.