More than two years after Israel waged war on seven fronts — as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu repeatedly claimed — most Israelis, and especially the political establishment, still believe those wars are far from over. This sentiment persists despite the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon’s Hezbollah last year and the recent implementation of the first phase of U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza.
Israel’s renewed focus on Gaza — following the recovery of living hostages and some of the bodies of the dead — has become the central issue shaping the next phase in Tel Aviv. Netanyahu, his ruling coalition, and the broader Israeli public are now prioritizing Gaza above all other fronts. Several factors explain this, which can be understood through the impact of Trump’s plan on Israeli public opinion and its influence on the stability of Netanyahu’s governing coalition.
Israeli Public Opinion
Recent surveys conducted by Israeli research centers and newspapers show sharp and rapid shifts in public sentiment toward the war in Gaza. Confidence levels in Netanyahu and voter preferences — if elections were to be held soon — reveal a society oscillating between hardline and pragmatic positions, particularly regarding Trump’s Gaza plan.
1. The stance on ending the Gaza war to recover hostages:
Before Trump presented his plan, a mid-September 2025 poll by the Israel Democracy Institute found that 60% of Jewish Israelis supported ending the war in exchange for recovering hostages. After Trump unveiled his plan, a Maariv poll on October 3 showed 66% in favor — a clear sign of growing support.
2. Early election preferences:
Polls conducted in September — before Trump’s announcement — showed Likud winning 22–25 Knesset seats out of 120, while Naftali Bennett’s “Bennett–2026” party would gain between 15 and 24 seats. In either scenario, neither bloc would reach the 61-seat threshold to form a government.
However, after Trump’s plan was introduced, a Maariv poll published on October 10 indicated Likud would rise to 27 seats, followed by Bennett–2026 with 19. The results suggested that Bennett’s bloc could gather 59 seats, while Netanyahu’s coalition partners would total 51 — leaving both short of a governing majority.
A separate Jewish News Syndicate (JNS) poll — considered pro-Netanyahu — painted a dramatically different picture. Conducted on October 15, the day hostages were released, it projected 35 seats for Likud and 30 for its coalition allies (Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, and Jewish Power). Together, Netanyahu’s bloc would hold a comfortable 65-seat majority, ensuring a stable coalition.
3. The preferred candidate for prime minister:
Netanyahu’s popularity has fluctuated sharply throughout the two-year Gaza conflict, remaining between 30–35% until August. But after Trump’s plan and the return of hostages, a JNS poll on October 15 showed 58% backing Netanyahu as the best candidate for prime minister, compared to 22% for Bennett.
Overall, the data demonstrates how Trump’s Gaza plan has reshaped Israeli opinion — boosting Netanyahu’s standing and influencing potential election outcomes. Yet, caution is warranted in interpreting these results for several reasons:
- Polls often reflect momentary emotions rather than long-term convictions.
- Differences in polling methodologies frequently produce inconsistent or even contradictory outcomes.
- Only the first stage of Trump’s plan has been implemented, and public sentiment could shift dramatically if later phases stall or collapse, potentially reigniting the war.
As Israeli columnist Yoav Limor noted, Netanyahu’s popularity spike following the hostage release could fade within days if the remaining bodies are not recovered — and polling numbers will continue to shift as Israel nears the scheduled October 2026 elections.
The Ruling Coalition
Months before Trump’s Gaza plan appeared, Netanyahu’s coalition faced its gravest internal crisis since taking office in December 2022 — the controversy over conscripting members of the ultra-Orthodox Haredi community, represented by the Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) parties.
In July, UTJ withdrew from the coalition and announced it would not support the government in any future confidence vote. Shas pulled its ministers from the cabinet but pledged continued parliamentary backing.
The crisis stemmed from a June 2023 Supreme Court ruling that prohibited the defense minister from exempting Haredim from military service, ordering the government to draft a new law ensuring equal obligation. Without such legislation within a year, all exemptions would be considered illegal draft evasion. Netanyahu’s government managed to delay compliance until June 2025, after Haredi parties rejected a proposal mandating that 50% of draft-age Haredi men be conscripted annually within five years.
This dispute sparked deep divisions — not only within the coalition but across Israeli society. The military reported a shortage of around 12,000 recruits as of August. Defense officials accused Haredi rabbis of encouraging defiance: of 18,000 draft notices sent in April, only 231 were obeyed. One rabbi remarked, “A government that acts against Torah students commits a disgraceful act and must be overthrown.”
The Haredi draft issue could intensify further following the implementation of Trump’s Gaza plan. On one hand, Haredi parties may support the plan since it removes the argument that Israel needs new recruits amid an ongoing war. On the other, Religious Zionist parties — which oppose Trump’s plan and demand the war continue until Hamas is destroyed — may push for renewed hostilities, possibly even advocating for future Palestinian displacement from Gaza.
Thus, Netanyahu faces a formidable challenge in keeping his fragile coalition intact. Deep divisions persist, particularly between Shas — which still backs Netanyahu in parliament — and the far-right Religious Zionism and Jewish Power parties, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, respectively. Three looming developments threaten to exacerbate tensions:
- A no-confidence vote in the Knesset after its summer recess on October 20.
- Uncertainty over Trump plan’s next stages, with hostage families opposing further negotiations (on disarmament, transitional governance, and reconstruction) before the remaining bodies are recovered.
- The March 2026 budget vote, where failure to pass a budget would automatically trigger early elections.
If Netanyahu’s coalition survives until March, fierce disputes over defense spending and funding for Haredi institutions are expected. With just 61 Knesset seats after UTJ’s withdrawal, the government’s survival may hinge on Shas’s vote or opposition abstentions.
Conclusion
Trump’s Gaza peace plan remains precarious. With only its first phase completed — and Hamas unlikely to comply with the disarmament clause — the entire process risks collapse, potentially reigniting the conflict. Ironically, a return to war could temporarily stabilize Netanyahu’s coalition by uniting factions around security imperatives. But the real test will come with the 2026 budget vote — a political fault line that could determine whether Netanyahu’s government survives until the October 2026 elections.
