How is Mexico responding to Trump’s aggressive policies?

On February 6, 2025, a convoy of National Guard and Mexican army trucks headed towards the border separating Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, from El Paso, Texas, in line with promises made by Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum to send 10,000 officers to the northern border. This move came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a one-month suspension of tariffs imposed on Mexico pending negotiations between the two countries over outstanding issues.

These developments followed days of escalating rhetoric and tough stances from the U.S. administration toward several countries, including Mexico. The U.S. President’s statements and executive orders regarding immigration, trade, and cross-border crime posed direct challenges to the Mexican government, bringing U.S.-Mexican relations back into the political spotlight amid growing political, economic, and security challenges.

To understand Mexico’s stance and its ability to cope with these challenges, it is essential to analyze the domestic context, including the positions of officials, the opposition, public opinion, and how this impacts crisis management in terms of the alignment or divergence among these stakeholders concerning the repercussions of Trump’s policies.

Strict Policies:

Since his inauguration on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump has adopted a number of executive orders, stances, and strict decisions regarding Mexico, both directly and indirectly, as evidenced by the following:

1. Imposition of Tariffs: Trump issued an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Mexican imports starting February 2025, pledging to maintain it until what he referred to as a “national emergency” related to fentanyl smuggling (a type of drug) and illegal immigration to the U.S. This decision aimed to pressure Mexico into cooperation on these issues. However, this decision, which violated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), was suspended for a month following bilateral negotiations between the two countries.
2. Renaming the Gulf of Mexico: The Trump administration issued an executive action renaming the Gulf of Mexico to “Gulf of America,” which sparked mocking responses, including one from Mexico’s President, who initially suggested renaming the continent “Mexican America,” before asserting that the Gulf would continue to be known internationally as the “Gulf of Mexico.” Nonetheless, the official account of “Google” on the platform X announced it would adopt the new name in Google Maps within the United States after updating it according to the American geographical naming system.
3. Tightening Immigration Policies: This included systemic immigration channels; the U.S. administration decided to halt the implementation of “CBP One,” which allowed migrants in Mexico to request appointments for entering the U.S. through official border points. The Biden administration had promoted this app as a legal means to seek asylum. Additionally, the “Remain in Mexico” program resumed, which requires asylum seekers from various nationalities to wait in Mexico until their requests are processed.

It is noteworthy that Mexico is the final stop for many migrants heading to American soil. According to the Global Migration Report 2024, the immigration corridor between the U.S. and Mexico is the largest in the world, with an estimated 11 million migrants primarily from Latin American countries like Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Venezuela, and Colombia. Consequently, Trump’s policies have shocked thousands of individuals at the border who hoped to enter the U.S. legally, and they are expected to lead to large numbers of migrants congregating in Mexico, which may worsen the humanitarian situation there and increase pressure on the Mexican government to find alternative solutions.

4. Deportation of Migrants to Mexico: Trump instructed an increase in immediate deportations of undocumented migrants within the U.S., which would lead to a rise in the number of those being returned to Mexico. Therefore, Mexico rejected a request from Trump’s administration to allow a U.S. military plane carrying deportees to land in its territory. However, the Mexican government confirmed its welcome to its citizens returning from the U.S. at any time.

Cautious Official Stance:

The official stance of Mexico towards Trump’s policies in his new term is characterized by caution and diplomacy. On one hand, the Mexican government, under President Claudia Sheinbaum, is determined to defend Mexico’s national position against U.S. escalation, and on the other hand, it seeks to maintain stable bilateral relations. This is evident in the following ways:

1. Quick and Clear Responses to Trump’s Aggressive Statements: For instance, when Trump attacked Mexico before his inauguration, claiming that the country was run by cartels (drug gangs), he was met with a categorical rejection from Mexico’s President, who emphasized that its sovereignty is non-negotiable and that Mexico is governed by its people, not by gangs.
2. Mexico’s Readiness to Adopt Decisive Stances: The Mexican leadership previously declared its willingness to take tariff and non-tariff measures in response to the U.S. announcement of tariffs on all Mexican imports, in line with their recognition that strict American decisions would harm both countries, especially since Mexico is one of the largest trading partners of the United States.
3. Desire for Dialogue and Negotiation: On February 2, 2025, Sheinbaum stated that “problems cannot be solved by imposing tariffs, but through talks and dialogue.” The next day, after a call with Trump, she confirmed that her country was ready to enhance border security by deploying 10,000 troops to the northern border, with the U.S. committing to stop arms trafficking into Mexico. In return, the U.S. decided to freeze tariffs for a month, and both countries committed to continuing talks on security and trade issues moving forward.

Internal Divisions:

Reactions within Mexico varied between concern over the implications of Trump’s policies and caution regarding their impact on the economy, security, and bilateral relations, while some voices called for a bolder and more assertive stance toward the new U.S. administration. This is evident in the following points:

1. Diverse Positions of Opposition Parties: The Mexican opposition reacted in different ways to Donald Trump’s positions before and after his assumption of the presidency and his direct threats to the country. The following points outline the positions of the most represented parties in the Mexican parliament aside from the ruling party:
   • National Action Party (PAN): A right-wing party that issued a statement on January 22, 2025, expressing its official stance and openness to dialogue with the leftist ruling party (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional – MORENA) and various political stakeholders and civil society to protect citizens. The party emphasized that dialogue should be accompanied by serious proposals and solutions to Mexico’s internal issues, such as combating drug trafficking and arms smuggling across the border and supporting migrants, especially those being deported. Moreover, the coordinator of the party in the Chamber of Deputies, José Elías Leza, described Trump’s policies as an “opportunity” to combat insecurity and address internal issues.
   However, some party deputies, such as Fernando Rocha Amaro and Noemí Perinis Luna, criticized the government for its lack of prior planning, despite the months it had before Trump’s inauguration. They also did not support the agreement between the president and Trump as it was “imposed,” not resulting from “negotiation.” In this context, former Mexican president Vicente Fox expressed support for Trump’s decision to impose tariffs, considering that Mexico “deserved” it due to its failure to combat drug trafficking.
   • Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI): A right-wing party that, according to its official stance, did not oppose joining calls for unity for Mexico, but the party’s parliamentary group in the Chamber of Deputies rejected Trump’s threats, considering that tariffs threaten the country’s sovereignty and contradict bilateral treaties with the U.S. Deputy Arturo Medina pointed out that the United States’ distrust towards Mexico stemmed from the government’s negligence of issues that matter to people; however, Medina affirmed that the party would always be an advocate for national unity and defender of national sovereignty.
   In this same vein, Alejandro Moreno Cárdenas, the party president, holds the government responsible for Trump’s policies towards Mexico, accusing it of allowing an increase in crime and drug trafficking, and he reassured that his party supports the Mexican people but does not endorse an “ineffective government” making decisions that foster distrust among trading partners. He also criticized the month-long tariff suspension decision, stating that all the government gained from this deal was time, while raising critical questions about the deployment of 10,000 troops and what areas would be left unprotected after this decision. However, Sheinbaum responded that the National Guard comprises about 120,000 members; thus, no areas would be left unsecured.
   • Labor Party (Partido del Trabajo): A leftist party that announced its full support for the Mexican president in facing Trump’s policies, accusing Reginaldo Sandoval Flores, the party’s deputy, of the opposing parties, especially PAN and PRI, of promoting what he termed a “covert invasion” from the U.S. to Mexico to achieve self-serving interests apart from the people’s needs. He described their position as treason to the homeland, claiming that their aim was to subordinate Mexico to U.S. interests, thus threatening Mexican sovereignty. He called on the general public for unity and resistance and praised the role of Mexico’s president in defending national sovereignty.
2. Business Sector Position on Trump’s Policies: The trade escalation adopted by Trump’s administration and the strict measures towards Mexico raised significant concerns in the business and industrial sector; Mexican and American companies, especially those operating along the border, fear the adverse effects of tariffs on supply chains and employment. Despite the month-long moratorium agreed upon between the two nations, manufacturing centers in these areas still fear the country may face an economic recession; hence, analysts and business leaders warned that tariffs would not only affect exports but also economic growth, employment, investments, and financial remittances, as well as the Mexican peso. In this context, Valeria Muy, director of the Public Policy Research Center in Mexico, stated, “This will lead to a recession in the country.” Pedro Casas, vice president and general manager of the American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico, believes that “companies and consumers will suffer consequences if this measure is not reversed.” On the other hand, the government called on the business community to leverage the period of tariff suspension to engage in dialogue, resolve the crisis, and support the economy through a six-year investment strategy (aimed at bolstering domestic industry and attracting long-term investments). Several business figures, such as Carlos Slim Domit, president of Grupo Carso; Daniel Serfaty, president of Bimbo; Claudio Gonzalez, founder of Kimberly Clark Mexico; and Julio Carranza, president of the Mexican Banking Association, among others, expressed their support for the government’s strategy, feeling pleased with the tariff suspension decision and asserting that the president’s “calm” strategy was the right path. In this context, Francisco Cervantes, chairman of the Business Coordination Council, stressed the need to enhance dialogue and ongoing coordination between the government and the private sector to address current challenges. He also mentioned that revitalizing the “Cuartode Junto,” a team of private sector experts participating in trade negotiations, would contribute to better defending Mexican interests within the framework of the North American Free Trade Agreement talks.
3. Mexican Public Opinion on Trump: There is widespread ambiguity among citizens in Mexico regarding the potential economic ramifications of Trump’s threats, especially concerning trade with the United States and rising unemployment should investments suffer. It is anticipated that some citizens might hold the government responsible for not adequately preparing for American escalation. Nevertheless, a national poll conducted by the Mexican newspaper “El Financiero” between January 8 and 27, 2025, revealed that the Mexican president achieved an approval rating of 81%, the highest since taking office, while disapproval stood at 15% “amid tensions with the United States.” The survey also captured reactions to U.S.-Mexico relations since Trump’s electoral victory, with 52% of participants considering the relationship “unfavorable” or “negative,” while only 31% viewed it as “positive” or “favorable.” Regarding mass deportations, 79% of Mexicans expressed concern “strongly or somewhat.” Concerning tariffs, 69% of participants believed that Mexico would be “significantly harmed” if they were imposed, even before the decision to suspend tariffs for a month.

The poll results suggest that citizens largely trust their leadership and support its diplomatic approach; thus, they are confident in its ability to address current challenges. However, there is also evident anxiety about the future economic and social landscape of Mexico due to Trump’s stringent policies, particularly concerning immigration and trade with the United States.

In conclusion, the continued aggressive approach of the Trump administration toward Mexico is expected to exacerbate economic and social conditions within the country, particularly with decreased financial remittances from migrants and the government’s inability to absorb more deportees from various nationalities. Internally, despite confirming the importance of unity in facing Trump’s policies, Mexicans are divided between supporters of the president’s diplomatic dialogue approach and critics advocating for more stringent measures.

These ideological divisions between the right and left will weaken the government’s capacity to adopt coherent policies, reducing the likelihood of success in managing the upcoming phase. Therefore, there are calls for “unity for Mexico against any external intervention” to be genuine and not merely slogans, opening the door for all sectors to participate in dialogue and propose solutions, as their ability to overcome differences and work together during this period will bolster the nation’s position and its capability to pursue an effective strategy in addressing the challenges.