How Has American Citizens’ Evaluation of Presidential Performance Evolved?

One area that has garnered public interest and become a popular commodity in the public opinion measurement industry in the United States is the evaluation of American citizens regarding the president’s performance. This assessment is based on asking a representative sample of citizens whether they agree or disagree with the performance of the American president. The results are presented as a percentage that reflects five categories: strongly approve, approve, disapprove, strongly disapprove, and don’t know.

The results of these surveys reflect the level of support for the president, and approval ratings can influence their political agenda and the overall political landscape; high approval ratings enable the president to advance particular agendas, while low ratings may compel them to change direction and prioritize issues that enhance their popularity. These results play a crucial role in the president’s negotiating power with Congress; high approval ratings help the president negotiate from a position of strength, while low ratings complicate the passage of their policies.

Approval ratings reflect the general mood of society toward the president, and do not necessarily indicate the success of their policies. They are influenced by factors such as ideology, personal experiences, and media coverage. Additionally, they are swayed by external factors beyond the president’s control, such as natural disasters. Approval ratings respond to events that the general public perceives as threats to the nation, causing a temporary unity where citizens rally behind the president until the threat subsides.

The regular measurement of presidential performance in the United States began in 1945 during President Truman’s administration. The Gallup organization has repeated this survey 65 times, starting from Truman’s presidency, which lasted from June 1945 to December 1952, averaging a survey every six weeks. This tradition has continued, with the frequency of measurements increasing; according to the Roper Center, approximately 1,450 polls were conducted during President George W. Bush’s eight-year presidency, averaging one survey every two days. This period also saw a rise in the number of institutions conducting these surveys; while Gallup was the sole organization measuring presidential approval under Truman, the number of pollsters conducting such evaluations during President Obama’s first year reached 15.

Data available on the approval levels of American presidents, which started in 1945, have undergone in-depth analyses aimed at theorizing patterns in general trends of presidential approval levels and the shifts they experience. This accumulation of knowledge about American citizens’ attitudes toward the president provides fertile ground for comparing different American presidents concerning their approval levels, the extent of changes, the timing of shifts in public sentiment, and the circumstances and reasons behind these changes. The results of these surveys have contributed to altering political paths and eliciting reactions both from the president and their party, as well as from the opposing party.

Development of Presidential Approval Ratings

Results from public opinion polls conducted by Gallup over the past eighty years indicate significant variation among American presidents. When calculating the average approval rating for American presidents, the disparity is evident, ranging from 41.1% for President Donald Trump (in his first term) to 70.1% for President John Kennedy (who assumed the presidency in the early 1960s). Additionally, a notable variance exists among presidents concerning their highest approval rating during their term, ranging from 90% for President George W. Bush to 49% for President Trump, while the lowest approval ratings were 22% for President Truman and 56% for President Kennedy.

Beyond the disparities among presidents, there is also variability in the approval ratings each president achieved during their term. This variance can be quantified by the difference between the highest and lowest approval ratings each president received. As indicated in the chart, presidents who experienced significant fluctuations in their approval ratings included President Truman and President George H.W. Bush, followed by President George W. Bush, with approval ratings swinging over 60 percentage points. In contrast, the fluctuations were limited for both President Trump and President Biden, at 15 percentage points and 21 percentage points, respectively.

The surges in presidential approval ratings can be explained by various factors, including the success of economic policies and their impact on job creation, as well as overall citizen sentiment regarding their quality of life. Furthermore, the approval ratings of the American president can be influenced by ongoing events, whether domestic or international. These events shape the general mood of society, at times boosting the president’s popularity and, at other times, undermining it.

The changes in approval ratings during President George W. Bush’s term serve as a clear example; his approval ratings stood at 51% before the events of September 11, only to surge to 90% immediately after, marking the highest approval rating recorded for an American president since the measurement began during Truman’s presidency. The approval rating continued to rise before experiencing a gradual decline to below 60% within six months. Only the declaration of war on Iraq on March 19, 2003, raised his approval past 70%. This illustrates how a drop in presidential popularity might prompt the rapid adoption of populist decisions that extend beyond domestic concerns, an aspect that other global leaders should consider.

Changes in Approval in the Second Term

Questions often arise regarding changes in approval ratings between a president’s first and second terms. To address this, we analyze data from the eight presidents who have served two terms since 1945. According to Gallup surveys, as shown in the table below, the average approval rating increased for only two presidents: Bill Clinton, who saw an 11 percentage point increase between his first and second terms, and Ronald Reagan, who experienced a 5 percentage point increase.

In contrast, the other six presidents experienced a decline in average approval ratings. The most pronounced drop occurred between President George W. Bush’s first and second terms (from 62.2% to 36.5%), followed by President Lyndon Johnson (from 74.2% to 50.3%) and President Richard Nixon (from 34.4% to 21.4%). The significant decline for President George W. Bush can be attributed to the unusually high approval ratings during his first term in the wake of September 11 and the declaration of war on Iraq, along with the capture of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein. However, the second term’s approval rating was adversely affected by economic conditions; during George W. Bush’s presidency, job creation was exceedingly low (half a million jobs) compared to his predecessor, President Clinton (22.7 million jobs).

Since 1953, Gallup has measured presidential approval ratings at the onset of each presidency, as this rating indirectly reflects the popularity a president enjoys at the beginning of their term. It is essential to track these changes throughout their administration. Temporal comparisons of the presidential approval rating when they assumed office reveal significant disparities among presidents, with Truman boasting the highest approval rating (87%), followed by Johnson (78%) and Kennedy (72%), all Democrats. In contrast, this rating dropped significantly for President Trump, who recorded the lowest approval ratings among American presidents (45% at the start of his first term and 47% at the beginning of his second), making him the only president whose initial approval rating did not reach 50%.

In conclusion, this paper has focused on analyzing the results of American public opinion polls regarding approval ratings of presidential performance. This analysis indicates notable variations among American presidents over the past eight decades, as well as differences in successive measurements for each presidency, which are influenced by domestic issues and particularly respond to American citizens’ perceptions of national security threats facing the United States.