Amidst the rapid transformations sweeping the world and the often unprecedented pace of change, the past resurfaces to assert its constant presence in shaping and directing the paths of the present and future. While observers focus on forecasting emerging trends and phenomena on the international scene, the return of certain personalities and currents that had temporarily receded into the background—such as Trump’s return as a presidential candidate with considerable chances of leading the race to the White House, and the rise of far-right and populist movements in the West—reminds us that we cannot understand current transformations in isolation from the determinants and legacy of the past.
The same applies to regional and international conflicts that appear as endless cycles of escalation and de-escalation without a decisive end. These manifestations are numerous and varied across different regions of the world.
The phenomenon of “invoking history” has become an emerging trend in academic and intellectual literature, serving as an explanatory framework for the highly complex phenomena that characterize the global scene. Whether we are discussing geopolitical disputes between major powers, ethnic and sectarian conflicts, or issues of identity and integration within societies, the roots of these issues run deep into the soil of the past, drawing their momentum from the collective memory and historical experiences of nations and peoples.
Invoking “Historical Perspectives”
The importance of the historical perspective lies in its provision of a powerful analytical tool for understanding the apparent contradictions of current transformations. How can we explain the simultaneous waves of astonishing technological progress with phenomena of cultural isolation and identity extremism? Or how can we comprehend the persistence of ancient regional conflicts in an age of global interconnectedness and interdependence? Here, the past sheds light on the deep structural tensions that govern the movement of societies and states, which resist the linear logic of progress and rationality. This can be explained through several directions:
- Explaining Major Transformations: Invoking history in analyzing international relations is not limited to observing continuity and repetition but also includes understanding the mechanisms of change and transformation. Over the past century, the international system has witnessed a series of violent transitions between multipolarity, bipolarity, and unipolarity, accompanied by the eruption of world wars, the collapse of ancient empires, and radical changes in the global political map.
At each transitional phase, international actors—consciously or unconsciously—relied on a wealth of experiences and lessons drawn from pivotal moments in history, whether to reproduce prevailing patterns or to overcome them and adapt to new situations. Here, historical analysis plays a role in understanding the motives and mechanisms behind these transformations, and how structural and circumstantial factors interacted to shape the features of the international system at each stage.
By tracing the historical paths of change, we can extract general models and patterns that help us understand and explain current and future transformations. This also enables us to identify the factors that stimulate and hinder change and how these factors interact in different contexts. Thus, returning to history does not mean surrendering to the inevitability of repeating the past but is a tool for acquiring cumulative wisdom that allows us to create a better future.
- Stimulating International Movements: The influence of history on international relations is not limited to being a mere temporal context that encompasses events and developments but extends to its role as a fundamental driver of interactions between states. The historical memory of nations, with its psychological, emotional, and ideological legacy, often forms the basis on which perceptions and attitudes towards oneself and others are built, which in turn reflects on the nature of bilateral relations, regional alliances, and strategic orientations of states.
For example, the continuous tensions between Japan and South Korea cannot be understood without returning to their roots in the period of Japanese colonization of the Korean Peninsula, which left complexities in the collective consciousness. Thus, history does not only constitute a static context for international relations but also plays a dynamic role in stimulating and directing its interactions, whether towards cooperation and integration or towards conflict and competition.
- Strengthening the Legitimacy of Policies: States often resort to invoking specific historical events and experiences to justify their foreign policies and affirm the legitimacy of their positions on international issues. For instance, Russia justifies its military intervention in Ukraine based on historical and cultural ties and a grand historical narrative of bilateral relations, while China asserts its sovereignty over the South China Sea based on inherited historical rights.
- Activating Soft Power and Public Diplomacy: States strive to utilize their historical and cultural heritage as a source of attraction and influence in their regional and international surroundings. By promoting their values and achievements throughout history, states aim to enhance their image and gain sympathy and support from global public opinion. This is evident in the competition among major powers to host global cultural and sports events or in diplomatic efforts to revive historical trade routes like the Silk Road.
- Invoking Historical Lessons: History constitutes a rich reservoir of experiences and models that can be leveraged in formulating foreign policies and managing international crises. By studying past successes and failures, decision-makers can extract the necessary lessons to develop the decision-making process and avoid repeating mistakes. This is reflected in the interest of many foreign ministries and research centers around the world in analyzing historical events and applying their models to contemporary issues.
- Understanding Protracted Conflicts: Some contemporary international conflicts are extensions of deeply rooted historical disputes that have not been fully resolved, making history a hindering factor in settling these conflicts. These conflicts involve contested rights, mutual grievances, and conflicting narratives. A prominent example is the conflict between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, which dates back to the British colonial legacy and the circumstances of the partition of the Indian subcontinent.
Deconstructing “Maps of the Past”
History has never been a straight line progressing at a steady pace but rather a winding series of sudden transformations, revolutionary leaps, and painful setbacks. This calls for caution in dealing with propositions like the “end of history” or “clash of civilizations” or any other definitive predictions about the fate of humanity. It is essential to acknowledge that the future is not subject to rigid determinism but is the product of a continuous and complex interaction between the legacy of the past, the demands of the present, and the aspirations of the future.
In essence, history is a rich record of paradoxes and contradictions where tendencies of progress and regression, cooperation and conflict, unity and fragmentation coexist simultaneously. This duality is clearly reflected in the course of international relations, which constantly oscillate between cycles of stability and turmoil, dominance and multiplicity, openness and closure. The most distinguishing feature of the current historical moment is the acceleration of these transformations and the interweaving of their manifestations, making the understanding of their general trends and future implications an exceedingly complex challenge.
Despite the dialectical nature of history, there are lessons and enduring truths that can be derived from its long trajectory, which serve as a compass guiding humanity towards the future. One of the most significant truths is that cooperation and integration among nations and peoples are the only way to face common challenges that threaten our existence, such as devastating wars, deadly pandemics, environmental disasters, and extremism and terrorism. History tells us that when states isolate themselves and deny their shared human destiny, they fall prey to the conflicts and disturbances that sweep away the civilizational achievements built by successive generations. Conversely, the most prosperous periods of humanity were those marked by a spirit of tolerance, openness, and cultural and intellectual exchange between civilizations and societies.
Looking to the Future
From this perspective, the new issue of the “State of the World” journal reflects this interaction and interconnection between the past, present, and future. The main study of the issue examines the impact of the regional security dilemma on the prospects of the Asian rise, using concepts based on history, such as theories of power transition and regional security systems. Experts’ analyses link the resurgence of phenomena like far-right movements and populism in the West to their deep historical roots and the recurring fluctuations in democratic systems.
The issue does not lack important questions about “who will be the next US president?”, “what does the Argentine president want?”, the impact of “BRICS” on international politics, and the fate of the “Belt and Road Initiative.”
The analyses in this issue highlight a range of significant phenomena and transformations in the structure of the international system and its interactions. While advanced technology smuggling networks expand across borders, threatening global strategic stability, international conflicts find new arenas in “common areas” like cyberspace and maritime corridors. Additionally, the rising role of separatist regions as new actors in international relations poses challenges to concepts of sovereignty and national unity.
On the regional power balance, the issue analyzes the shifts in French influence in Africa and their geostrategic implications. It also examines the intensifying international competition to establish and operate undersea cable networks, which are vital arteries for the economy and communications in the 21st century. At the level of interactions among major powers, the issue discusses the features of the emerging “polar war” in the Arctic region and the increasing interest of these powers in employing hybrid space in their strategic conflicts.
In the context of global interest in establishing new trade routes and corridors, the issue reviews the motivations and implications of the “Middle Corridor” project and its economic and political stakes for the Middle East and the global trade map.
In a related context, the “Global Concepts” section introduces a set of new terms that have started to impose themselves in the lexicon of international relations, such as the concept of “de-risking” and its implications for patterns of economic and financial interactions between states, and the phenomenon of “technological collision,” which describes the growing intensity of conflict between states and giant technology companies. The section also sheds light on the concept of “spheres of influence” and how its implications have changed in light of power distribution shifts in the current international system.
On the political front, in the “Eye on the World” section, the issue tracks the renewed rise of far-right forces and their impacts on shaping Western policies, while the “Eye on the Region” section outlines the ongoing regional war in the Middle East and its repercussions on security and stability in this pivotal region of the world.
Finally, in the context of future forecasting, the dedicated section discusses the phenomenon of the growing role of private security companies as an emerging international player with complex impacts on political, economic, security, legal, and ethical levels.
Ultimately, awareness of history’s presence is not an invitation to surrender to the power of the past but an opportunity to transcend its problematic legacy and utilize its lessons to build a better future. Understanding historical experiences ensures coexistence with the past’s legacy and repairs the collective memory. Only then can nations and peoples look forward while reconciled with their past and capable of dealing with current challenges in a balanced manner.
As British historian Arnold Toynbee says, “History is a story of mankind’s struggle to understand its destiny and determine its fate.” States and societies must recognize that their destiny is not subject to deterministic laws but is shaped by the political choices they make in the present, in light of the wisdom they derive from the past and the horizons they envision for the future.
