The world is currently witnessing an escalating technology war between the United States and China, with Europe also participating, albeit timidly, due to its declining efforts to maintain technological superiority amid stagnation in this field. While these major powers strive to protect themselves from technological dependency, this could lead to a threat to global progress and prosperity by fragmenting it into competing technological realms.
In this context, the German author Wolfgang Hirn published a book in 2024 titled “The Technology War Between China and the United States and the European Stance on Competition.” In this book, he discusses the historical roles of these major powers in supporting technological advancement, the key technological areas in contention—particularly quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology—and the risks posed by this conflict as well as the feasibility of cooperation among these powers in the technological sphere.
Technological Contributions:
At the outset, the book tracks the knowledge and technological contributions of the United States, China, and Europe. It notes that Washington laid the foundation for modern global technological development by initiating the Second Industrial Revolution through the discovery of electricity, followed by the Third Industrial Revolution with the advent of computers. Innovations such as the internet and microchips followed. This American success can be attributed to the availability of knowledge elements (universities and research institutions) and capital. In contrast, China historically contributed to technological progress during the period between 960 and 1279 CE through the invention of paper, printing, gunpowder, and the magnetic compass. However, following this period, China experienced a rapid decline due to factors such as the Opium Wars, the end of the empire, and civil wars, until it intensified efforts for a slow recovery starting in 1978 and then rose strongly over the last two decades.
Europe, on the other hand, experienced the First Industrial Revolution over a hundred years ago and was a leader in natural sciences and medicine at that time. However, there is now a noticeable decline in several technological areas compared to China and the United States, affecting even leading European industries like the automotive sector, where major players like Volkswagen are lagging in self-driving and automated technologies.
Areas of the Technology War:
The book highlights several technological areas where conflicts among major powers manifest:
Artificial Intelligence: AI applications aim to simulate human cognitive patterns and data processing, making it responsible for performing complex tasks. The United States supports companies involved in this field, resulting in the launch of ChatGPT in 2022, which can be used to obtain high-quality and accurate answers on various topics. Conversely, China banned this application and created a similar one called “Ernie Bot,” launched in 2023. European efforts to invest in AI have been disappointing, with Germany’s Research Minister presenting a plan to invest approximately €1.6 billion in this area by 2025.
Semiconductors: Semiconductors, or microchips, are used in the manufacturing of various low- and high-tech devices, from washing machines to rockets. They are an American invention that emerged in the 1950s, but currently, two companies dominate this field: Samsung in South Korea and TSMC in Taiwan. Neither Beijing, Washington, nor Europe can compete with them in the short term.
Digital Transformation: Digital transformation aims to integrate technological innovations into business and social processes. Washington and Beijing dominate this field, with the former being the primary founder of the four internet giants: Google, Apple, Facebook, and Amazon. Meanwhile, the latter has contributed three competing giants: Baidu, Alibaba, and Tencent. Europe, on the other hand, trails behind with companies like Zalando and Otto.
Quantum Computing and Quantum Theory: The field of quantum computing combines disciplines such as computer science, physics, and mathematics using quantum theory to achieve advanced data analytical processing that regular computers cannot handle with the same speed and accuracy. This capability can lead to breakthroughs in various fields, including medicine, by enabling cost-effective diagnosis and treatment of diseases like Alzheimer’s, epilepsy, and Parkinson’s. Additionally, it changes warfare strategies by creating radar based on quantum technologies that can track and locate adversaries. China leads the investments in this new technology, with Chinese investments reaching $15.3 billion in 2022, followed by Europe with $7.2 billion, and the United States with $3.7 billion.
Energy Generation: Countries are looking to leverage technology to provide promising and safe ways to generate energy, such as nuclear fusion (creating a synthetic sun), which is based on the idea of fusing two light atomic nuclei from hydrogen isotopes like deuterium and tritium to create a heavier atomic nucleus of a new element, helium, as occurs on the sun’s surface. This fusion releases energy amounts four times greater than those produced by fission reactions. However, several obstacles hinder the actual implementation of this technology, including the need to generate extremely high temperatures of up to 100 million degrees Celsius to ensure that no greenhouse gases or long-lived radioactive waste are produced.
Although it is difficult to use fusion for energy generation in the near future, until 2050, countries are making significant efforts to develop this technology. China has developed several fusion reactors, the latest being the advanced experimental “Tokamak” reactor designed to achieve temperatures of up to 120 million degrees Celsius in 2022. The United States is also actively supporting research in this field and forming partnerships, as seen with Japan this year to accelerate nuclear fusion development. Europe is making tangible efforts in this area through the joint European-Japanese project “JT-60SA” in 2022.
Biotechnology and Medicine: This encompasses technological applications related to digital healthcare, genetically modified foods, and gene editing (CRISPR), a technique used for targeted cutting and modifying of DNA, allowing for the insertion, removal, or disabling of genes in plants, animals, or humans. Its application raises ethical accountability, particularly regarding human applications.
Currently, there are no restrictive laws governing this technology in the United States and China. China employs it in agriculture to ensure the production of genetically modified foods to meet its population’s needs, while the United States approved the use of the first treatment from this technology for sickle cell anemia late last year. Conversely, the use of this technology in Europe faces stringent legal regulations as per the European Court of Justice ruling in 2018.
Space Travel: The United States, China, and Russia have placed significant emphasis on space through missions and space flights to the moon and Mars. However, the competition has now narrowed between Washington and Beijing due to Moscow’s financial crises. The technological motivations for both Washington and Beijing are supported by economic drivers in this field, as there is a need to mine space and explore its resources. Europe, on the other hand, currently lacks an ambitious and practical policy for space exploration.
Patents and Human Resources: The United States leads this field, bolstered by its universities, research centers, and capital. In 2023, China filed nearly 3 million patents, of which only 10% were accepted. Germany stands as a European powerhouse in patents, though it has seen a recent decline according to a government report on the future strategy for research and innovation.
Given that human resources are crucial for technology development and patent registration, major powers pursue various pathways to prepare their workforce, especially in mathematics, computer science, and natural sciences. However, they face a significant gap between supply and demand. China enjoys two competitive advantages: graduating vast numbers of students each year and actively sending students and scholars abroad for study and training, who are later called back when needed.
According to the book, the technological struggle among major powers cannot be confined to the aforementioned areas; there are other promising fields. In the military domain, unmanned combat aircraft and autonomous military robots that make decisions on the battlefield without human intervention can be manufactured. In urban settings, smart cities can be created that rely on the Internet of Things to perform functions rapidly and with a high degree of accuracy, such as facilitating traffic movement and optimizing energy use, along with environmental monitoring for potential risks.
In conclusion, the author emphasizes the imperative need for technological cooperation among China, the United States, and Europe, especially given the current global challenges of climate change, energy crises, and migration. Prolonging the technology war could lead to a global rise in prices, a decline in welfare levels, and a 7% drop in global GDP according to calculations by economists at the International Monetary Fund.
The ongoing technology war between Beijing and Washington is likely to result in technological fragmentation, potentially creating two distinct technological worlds—one American and the other Chinese—similar to what has already occurred with the internet. This would increase costs for consumers and producers and slow down the desired development, hindering knowledge and technological exchange between the two worlds.
While the author understands the need for countries to protect their economies and technological progress from falling into the trap of dependency, he believes that the solution lies in adopting an approach aimed at minimizing these risks by diversifying relations with multiple international actors and forming alliances rather than severing trade and technological ties, as was the case between the United States and China during the trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump.
Source:
Wolfgang Hirn, Der Tech-Krieg: China gegen USA – Und wo bleibt Europa?, Campus Verlag, 2024.
