The demographic crisis in several European countries is becoming increasingly complex as birth rates continue to decline and populations age more rapidly. At the same time, dependency ratios are rising and the size of the labor market is shrinking—factors that together threaten economic development and social cohesion across the continent. European countries differ in the degree to which they are affected by these challenges, and this variation is reflected in their migration policies, which are increasingly viewed as a key pillar of demographic stability. Some countries have adopted relatively open approaches to receiving migrants and regularizing their status, while others have strengthened models of “selective migration,” and a third group has continued to tighten restrictions on immigration and asylum.
Demographic Disparities
The population of the European Union was estimated at about 450.6 million people at the beginning of January 2025. Seniors aged 65 and over accounted for 22% of the total population, representing an increase of 0.4% compared to 2024 and 2.9% over the past decade. This trend places a growing burden on the working-age population (15–64 years), which is gradually shrinking—especially as dependency ratios are expected to rise in the coming decades. This group carries the responsibility of supporting both the elderly and children.
However, this general picture of the EU masks sharp differences in demographic deficits among member states. Southern and Eastern European countries face particularly severe declines. In Italy, the fertility rate dropped to 1.13 children per woman in 2025, while the average age reached 49.1 years, the highest in Europe compared with the EU average of 44.9 years. The share of elderly people in Italy rose to 24.7% of the total population, compared with 23.7% in Greece and 20.7% in Spain.
Eastern European countries such as Romania, Poland, and Bulgaria, whose total populations have declined, are experiencing large-scale youth migration abroad—particularly to Northern and Western European countries. This trend, combined with declining birth rates and rising dependency ratios, intensifies demographic pressures.
In Northern and Western Europe, Germany is expected to face a labor shortage of up to 7 million workers by 2035. Meanwhile, France entered what is known as a “demographic winter” in 2025, when deaths (651,000) exceeded births (645,000) for the first time since World War II—almost a decade earlier than official forecasts had predicted. Despite this natural deficit, France’s population grew to 69.1 million in 2026 thanks to positive net migration (176,000 people), which compensated for the demographic decline.
According to projections, Southern and Eastern European countries will experience the most dramatic demographic transformations. The old-age dependency ratio (people aged 85+ compared with the working-age population) is already the highest in Southern Europe and is expected to rise sharply from 6% in 2022 to around 18.3% by 2070. Similarly, Eastern Europe may see a significant increase, with the ratio rising from 3.5% to 15.3% during the same period.
By contrast, Northern and Western EU countries will also see growth in old-age dependency ratios, but less dramatically than in the South and East. In these latter regions, the sharp projected increase is not only due to the rising share of elderly people but also to the decline in the working-age population as young people migrate to Northern and Western Europe in search of better job opportunities. This dynamic complicates the overall demographic picture and opens the door to further divergence in migration policies, which remain one of the few realistic solutions to compensate for the demographic deficit.
Diverging Responses
Forecasts by the European statistical office Eurostat indicate that the EU population will peak at 453 million people in 2026, before gradually declining. Without migration, the population could fall by 34% by 2100. In the face of this demographic deficit, migration may emerge as a realistic solution. However, Europe’s approach to this solution is guided by the principle of limiting irregular migration flows while focusing on “selective migration” to support national economies.
Within this framework, policies have diverged significantly, revealing growing divisions among European countries in their approach to migration. These differences can be summarized in three main trends:
1. Strengthening “Selective Migration” While Maintaining Strict Restrictions
This approach aims to attract migrants with specific skills capable of supporting targeted economic sectors while maintaining strict controls on irregular migration. It is most evident in major countries such as France, Germany, and Italy.
In France, rapid demographic changes have prompted reforms promoting selective migration, favoring skilled workers and students to strengthen the shrinking workforce and relieve pressure on pension systems. At the same time, humanitarian migration channels and integration policies continue to face restrictions, with recommendations to direct migrant labor toward sectors such as healthcare, construction, and technology, as the government attempts to balance far-right political pressure with economic needs.
Germany also updated its residence laws in 2025 through a points-based system designed to facilitate the recruitment of skilled caregivers in response to rapid population aging, while creating structured pathways for family reunification to support the healthcare sector amid forecasts of severe labor shortages.
Italy, meanwhile, increased work visa quotas for non-EU citizens to 165,000 annually, totaling 500,000 workers between 2026 and 2028, with a focus on seasonal agriculture and domestic services. This pragmatic shift highlights the role of migration as a tool for demographic and economic stabilization.
2. Regularizing the Status of Irregular Migrants
This trend has been led by Spain, where the government approved a plan in January 2026 to regularize the status of approximately 500,000 undocumented migrants who were already in the country before the end of 2025. They will receive one-year work permits to help fill labor shortages in agriculture, hospitality, and elderly care amid growing demographic pressures.
Spanish officials expect annual tax gains exceeding €1 billion, viewing the measure as both an economic lifeline and a step toward better integration. Applications are set to open in April 2026.
This policy—the first of its kind in more than 20 years—offers undocumented workers a rare opportunity to transition from informal employment to legal work, gain access to social rights, and build a secure future in Spain. While it acknowledges the reality that many people already live and work in Spain without legal status, it also reflects the urgent need for their labor to sustain the national economy.
3. Continued Tightening of Immigration and Asylum Policies
In contrast to the relatively open measures adopted by some countries to attract skilled migrants, other European states have implemented stricter policies toward refugees and migrants.
Countries such as the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Hungary have adopted tougher policies, including shorter residence permits, higher deportation quotas, the adoption of “external processing models,” and stricter border controls. This collective trend aims to curb irregular migration flows and accelerate forced returns, despite the demographic pressures facing Europe.
In a similar context, Switzerland is preparing for a referendum in June 2026 to set a constitutional population cap of 10 million people by 2050. The initiative—proposed by the far-right Swiss People’s Party—would introduce a gradual warning system that tightens asylum restrictions once the population reaches 9.5 million and could even lead to the termination of the free movement agreement with the EU. The proposal reflects a deep national debate between protecting cultural identity and concerns about labor shortages and economic isolation in a country that relies heavily on foreign talent.
These differing responses illustrate the mounting pressure facing the European Union as a whole. While the new EU Migration and Asylum Pact, scheduled to enter into force in June 2026, introduces procedures for screening and returns, forecasts indicate that more than one million net migrants per year will be needed to balance the labor market. Meanwhile, the pragmatic southern approach increasingly clashes with the more cautious northern stance, raising concerns about growing fragmentation as Europe’s population continues to age.
Broader Explanations
Although the demographic deficit is a direct driver of divergent European migration policies, broader factors also shape these responses:
1. Geographic Imbalances and Burden Distribution
Frontline countries such as Italy, Greece, and Spain bear the greatest burden of irregular migration flows, particularly along the Central and Eastern Mediterranean routes. This pushes them toward flexible solutions such as labor regularization and expanded recruitment quotas.
By contrast, Eastern European states such as Poland and Hungary reject the principle of solidarity or refugee relocation, reinforcing unilateral approaches and weakening common funding mechanisms.
2. Domestic Political Dynamics
The rise of far-right parties in Northern and Western Europe has led to tighter border controls, the securitization of migration issues, and a stronger focus on cultural and identity concerns regarding migrants. Meanwhile, economic dependence in Southern Europe encourages a more pragmatic approach despite political pressures, as seen in Italy and Spain. In Eastern Europe, national identity and cultural homogeneity remain central drivers of restrictive migration policies.
3. Economic Structures and Labor Market Needs
Major European economies such as Germany and France favor selective migration and skilled labor to fill workforce gaps. Southern European countries rely more heavily on migrant labor in sectors such as agriculture and care services. Eastern European states issue large numbers of work visas but often reject humanitarian migration due to concerns about pressure on social welfare systems.
4. Institutional and Sovereignty Constraints
Some countries take advantage of the flexibility within the EU migration pact by contributing financially rather than accepting refugees. At the same time, the absence of a unified foreign policy pushes countries toward bilateral agreements—such as Italy’s deals with Tunisia and Albania—to bypass Brussels. This dynamic highlights the limitations of the Dublin system within the context of free movement inside the Schengen area.
Conclusion
Although migration is not Europe’s preferred solution, it remains a strategic necessity for addressing the continent’s severe demographic deficit. However, differences in the implementation of migration policies, weak commitment to collective frameworks, and the absence of unified coordination could gradually erode Europe’s ability to cope with its demographic imbalances. In the long run, these divisions may deepen fragmentation within the European Union and undermine the cohesion of the bloc itself.
